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Odstrcil, D.

Publications and source records attributed to Odstrcil, D..

Investigating Mercury’s Environment with the Two-Spacecraft BepiColombo Mission

The ESA-JAXA BepiColombo mission will provide simultaneous measurements from two spacecraft, offering an unprecedented opportunity to investigate magnetospheric and exospheric dynamics at Mercury as well as their interactions with the solar wind, radiation, and interplanetary dust. Many scientific instruments onboard the two spacecraft will be completely, or partially devoted to study the near-space environment of Mercury as well as the complex processes that govern it. Many issues remain unsolved even after the MESSENGER mission that ended in 2015. The specific orbits of the two spacecraft, MPO and Mio, and the comprehensive scientific payload allow a wider range of scientific questions to be addressed than those that could be achieved by the individual instruments acting alone, or by previous missions. These joint observations are of key importance because many phenomena in Mercury’s environment are highly temporally and spatially variable. Finally, examples of possible coordinated observations are described in this article, analysing the required geometrical conditions, pointing, resolutions and operation timing of different BepiColombo instruments sensors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Shock Connectivity and the Late Cycle 24 Solar Energetic Particle Events in July and September 2017

As solar activity steadily declined toward the cycle 24 minimum in the early months of 2017, the expectation for major solar energetic particle (SEP) events diminished with the sunspot number. It was thus surprising (though not unprecedented) when a new, potentially significant active region rotated around the East limb in early July that by midmonth was producing a series of coronal eruptions, reaching a crescendo around 23 July. This series, apparently associated with the birth of a growing pseudostreamer, produced the largest SEP event(s) seen since the solar maximum years. Activity abated with the decay of the active region, but a second episode of magnetic flux emergence in the same area in early September initiated a new round of eruptions. The western longitude of the erupting region, together with its similar coronal setting in both cases, resulted in a set of nearly homologous multipoint SEP event periods at Earth, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-A and Mars (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN) for July and September 2017. We use a combination of WSA-ENLIL-cone heliospheric simulation results, together with SEPMOD SEP event modeling, to illustrate how the event similarities at the three observer sites can be understood from their relative positions and their connectivities to the generated interplanetary shocks.

Luhmann, J. G.↗

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection Observed at STEREO-A, Mars, Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, Saturn,and New Horizons En Route to Pluto: Comparison of Its Forbush Decreases at 1.4, 3.1, and 9.9 AU

We discuss observations of the journey throughout the Solar System of a large interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) that was ejected at the Sun on 14 October 2014. The ICME hit Mars on 17 October, as observed by the Mars Express, Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN Mission (MAVEN), Mars Odyssey, and Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) missions, 44 h before the encounter of the planet with the Siding-Spring comet, for which the space weather context is provided. It reached comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, which was perfectly aligned with the Sun and Mars at 3.1 AU, as observed by Rosetta on 22 October. The ICME was also detected by STEREO-A on 16 October at 1 AU, and by Cassini in the solar wind around Saturn on the 12 November at 9.9 AU. Fortuitously, the New Horizons spacecraft was also aligned with the direction of the ICME at 31.6 AU. We investigate whether this ICME has a nonambiguous signature at New Horizons. A potential detection of this ICME by Voyager 2 at 110-111 AU is also discussed. The multispacecraft observations allow the derivation of certain properties of the ICME, such as its large angular extension of at least 116deg, its speed as a function of distance, and its magnetic field structure at four locations from 1 to 10 AU. Observations of the speed data allow two different solar wind propagation models to be validated. Finally, we compare the Forbush decreases (transient decreases followed by gradual recoveries in the galactic cosmic ray intensity) due to the passage of this ICME at Mars, comet 67P, and Saturn.

Witasse, O.↗

Modeling Solar Energetic Particle Events Using ENLIL Heliosphere Simulations

Solar energetic particle (SEP) event modeling (SEPMOD) has gained renewed attention in part because of the availability of a decade of multipoint measurements from STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) and L1 (Lagrangian point 1) spacecraft at 1 AU (Astronomical Unit). These observations are coupled with improving simulations of the geometry and strength of heliospheric shocks obtained by using coronagraph images to send erupted material into realistic solar wind backgrounds. The STEREO and ACE (Aerosol, Cloud systems, ocean Ecosystems) measurements in particular have highlighted the sometimes surprisingly widespread nature of SEP events. It is thus an opportune time for testing SEP models, which typically focus on protons approximately 1-100 megaelectronvolts, toward both physical insight to these observations and potentially useful space radiation environment forecasting tools. Some approaches emphasize the concept of particle acceleration and propagation from close to the Sun, while others emphasize the local field line connection to a traveling, evolving shock source. Among the latter is the previously introduced SEPMOD treatment, based on the widely accessible and well-exercised WSA-ENLIL (Wang-Sheeley-Arge-ENLIL)-cone model. SEPMOD produces SEP proton time profiles at any location within the ENLIL domain. Here we demonstrate a SEPMOD version that accommodates multiple, concurrent shock sources occurring over periods of several weeks. The results illustrate the importance of considering longer-duration time periods and multiple CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) contributions in analyzing, modeling, and forecasting SEP events.

Luhmann, J. G.↗

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Jian, L. K.↗

An Analysis of the Origin and Propagation of the Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections of 2010 August 1

On 2010 August 1, the northern solar hemisphere underwent significant activity that involved a complex set of active regions near central meridian with, nearby, two large prominences and other more distant active regions. This activity culminated in the eruption of four major coronal mass ejections (CMEs), effects of which were detected at Earth and other solar system bodies. Recognizing the unprecedented wealth of data from the wide range of spacecraft that were available-providing the potential for us to explore methods for CME identification and tracking, and to assess issues regarding onset and planetary impact-we present a comprehensive analysis of this sequence of CMEs.We show that, for three of the four major CMEs, onset is associated with prominence eruption, while the remaining CME appears to be closely associated with a flare. Using instrumentation on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft, three of the CMEs could be tracked out to elongations beyond 50◦; their directions and speeds have been determined by various methods, not least to assess their potential for Earth impact. The analysis techniques that can be applied to the other CME, the first to erupt, are more limited since that CME was obscured by the subsequent, much faster event before it had propagated far from the Sun; we discuss the speculation that these two CMEs interact. The consistency of the results, derived from the wide variety of methods applied to such an extraordinarily complete data set, has allowed us to converge on robust interpretations of the CME onsets and their arrivals at 1 AU.

Harrison, R. A.↗

Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections that Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model

In our previous paper we reported the results of modeling of 14 selected well -observed strong halo coronal mass ejection (CME) events using the WSA -ENLIL cone model combination. Cone model input parameters were obtained from white light coronagraph images of the CME events using the analytical method developed by Xie et al. This work verified that coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival time prediction. In contrast to Taktakishvili et al., where we started the analysis by looking for clear CME signatures in the data and then proceeded to model the interplanetary consequences at 1 AU, in the present paper we start by generating a list of observed geomagnetic storm events and then work our way back to remote solar observations and carry out the corresponding CME modeling. The approach used in this study is addressing space weather forecasting and operational needs. We analyzed 36 particularly strong geomagnetic storms, then tried to associate them with particular CMEs using SOHO/LASCO catalogue, and finally modeled these CMEs using WSA-ENLIL cone model. Recently, Pulkkinen et al. developed a novel method for automatic determination of cone model parameters. We employed both analytical and automatic methods to determine cone model input parameters. We examined the CME arrival times and magnitude of impact at 1 AU for both techniques. The results of the simulations are compared with the ACE satellite observations. This comparison demonstrated that WSA -ENLIL model combination with coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival times for this set of 'geoeffective" CME events as well.

Taktakishvili, A.↗

Fitting Flux Ropes to a Global MHD Solution: A Comparison of Techniques

Flux rope fitting (FRF) techniques are an invaluable tool for extracting information about the properties of a subclass of CMEs in the solar wind. However, it has proven difficult to assess their accuracy since the underlying global structure of the CME cannot be independently determined from the data. In contrast, large-scale MHD simulations of CME evolution can provide both a global view as well as localized time series at specific points in space. In this study we apply 5 different fitting techniques to 2 hypothetical time series derived from MHD simulation results. Independent teams performed the analysis of the events in "blind tests", for which no information, other than the time series, was provided. F rom the results, we infer the following: (1) Accuracy decreases markedly with increasingly glancing encounters; (2) Correct identification of the boundaries of the flux rope can be a significant limiter; and (3) Results from techniques that infer global morphology must be viewed with caution. In spite of these limitations, FRF techniques remain a useful tool for describing in situ observations of flux rope CMEs.

Riley, Pete↗

Fitting Flux Ropes to a Global MHD Solution: A Comparison of Techniques

Flux rope fitting (FRF) techniques are an invaluable tool for extracting information about the properties of a sub-class of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar wind. However, it has proven difficult to assess their accuracy since the underlying global structure of the CME cannot be independently determined from the data. In contrast, large-scale MHD simulations of CME evolution can provide both a global view as well as localized time series at specific points in space. In this study we apply five different fitting techniques to two hypothetical time series derived from MHD simulation results. Independent teams performed the analysis of the events in "blind tests", for which no information, other than time series, was provided. From the results, we infer the following: 1) Accuracy decreases markedly with increasingly glancing encounters; 2) Correct identification of the boundaries of the flux rope can be a significant limiter; 3) Results from techniques that infer global morphology must be viewed with caution. In spite of these limitations, FRF techniques remain a useful tool for describing in situ observations of flux rope CMEs.

Riley, Pete↗

Using an MHD simulation to interpret the global context of a coronal mass ejection observed by two spacecraft

In late February 1999 the ACE spacecraft observed a coronal mass ejection (CME) at 1 AU, in the ecliptic plane. Thirteen days later, Ulysses observed a CME at 5 AU and 22"s. We present a detailed analysis of the plasma, magnetic field, and composition signatures of these two events. On the basis of this comparison alone, it is not clear that the two spacecraft observed the same solar event. However, using a generic MHD simulation of a fast CME initiated at the Sun by magnetic flux cancellation and propagated out into the solar wind, together with additional evidence, we argue that indeed the same CME was observed by both spacecraft. Although force-free models appear to fit the observed events well, our simulation results suggest that the ejecta underwent significant distortion during its passage through the solar wind, indicating that care should be taken when interpreting the results of force-he models. Comparison of composition measurements at the two spacecraft suggests that significant spatial inhomogeneities can exist within a single CME.

Riley, Pete↗

Interaction of an interplanetary shock with the heliospheric plasma sheet

Interplanetary shocks often propagate along the heliospheric plasma sheet (HPS) where the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes its polarity. This problem is investigated by the time-dependent 2.5-D MHD numerical model in the meridional plane. An example of computation is shown in the figure using density (log) contours and IMF vectors. Values of plasma parameters along the HPS fluctuate in time due to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. The HPS with its decreased intensity of the IMF as well as with its increased mass density causes a dimple in the shock structure (relatively weak for the forward shock, significant for the reverse shock, and very large for the contact discontinuity). Beyond the forward shock, the HPS is slightly compressed due to the post-shock increase of the azimuthal IMF component. Then follows expansion of the HPS surrounded by the highly-deformed contact discontinuity. A significant draping of IMF lines occurs around this structure that increases the meridional component of the IMF. This can cause a favorable condition for initiation of a geomagnetic storm.

Odstrcil, D.↗