Engineering topics

Odstrcil, Dusan

Publications and source records attributed to Odstrcil, Dusan.

8 records

DOE OSTI2021

BepiColombo Science Investigations During Cruise and Flybys at the Earth, Venus and Mercury

The dual spacecraft mission BepiColombo is the first joint mission between the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to explore the planet Mercury. BepiColombo was launched from Kourou (French Guiana) on October 20th, 2018, in its packed configuration including two spacecraft, a transfer module, and a sunshield. BepiColombo cruise trajectory is a long journey into the inner heliosphere, and it includes one flyby of the Earth (in April 2020), two of Venus (in October 2020 and August 2021), and six of Mercury (starting from 2021), before orbit insertion in December 2025. A big part of the mission instruments will be fully operational during the mission cruise phase, allowing unprecedented investigation of the different environments that will encounter during the 7-years long cruise. The present paper reviews all the planetary flybys and some interesting cruise configurations. Additional scientific research that will emerge in the coming years is also discussed, including the instruments that can contribute.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Heliospheric Current Sheet in the Inner Heliosphere Observed by the Parker Solar Probe

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) completed its first solar encounter in 2018 November, bringing it closer to the Sun than any previous mission. This allowed in situ investigation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) inside the orbit of Venus. The Parker observations reveal a well defined magnetic sector structure placing the spacecraft in a negative polarity region for most of the encounter. The observed current sheet crossings are compared to the predictions of both potential field source surface and magnetohydrodynamic models. All the model predictions are in good qualitative agreement with the observed crossings of the HCS. The models also generally agree that the HCS was nearly parallel with the solar equator during the inbound leg of the encounter and more significantly inclined during the outbound portion. The current sheet crossings at PSP are also compared to similar measurements made by the Wind spacecraft near Earth at 1 au. After allowing for orbital geometry and propagation effects, a remarkable agreement has been found between the observations of these two spacecraft underlying the large-scale stability of the HCS. Finally, the detailed magnetic field and plasma structure of each crossing is analyzed. Marked differences were observed between PSP and Wind measurements in the type of structures found near the HCS. This suggests that significant evolution of these small solar wind structures takes place before they reach 1 au.

Szabo, Adam↗

NASA NTRS2018

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗

NASA NTRS2013

Forecasting Propagation and Evolution of CMEs in an Operational Setting: What Has Been Learned

One of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a ~24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.

forecasting↗

NASA NTRS2013

Interactions between Coronal Mass Ejections Viewed in Coordinated Imaging and In Situ Observations

The successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 2010 July 30 - August 1 present us the first opportunity to study CME-CME interactions with unprecedented heliospheric imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. We describe two cases of CME interactions: merging of two CMEs launched close in time and overtaking of a preceding CME by a shock wave. The first two CMEs on August 1 interact close to the Sun and form a merged front, which then overtakes the July 30 CME near 1 AU, as revealed by wide-angle imaging observations. Connections between imaging observations and in situ signatures at 1 AU suggest that the merged front is a shock wave, followed by two ejecta observed at Wind which seem to have already merged. In situ measurements show that the CME from July 30 is being overtaken by the shock at 1 AU and is significantly compressed, accelerated and heated. The interaction between the preceding ejecta and shock also results in variations in the shock strength and structure on a global scale, as shown by widely separated in situ measurements from Wind and STEREO B. These results indicate important implications of CME-CME interactions for shock propagation, particle acceleration and space weather forecasting.

Liu, Ying D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Shock Dynamics in the Inner Heliosphere with Modeling and Type II Radio Data: the 2010-04-03 Event

The 2010 April 03 solar event was studied using observations from STEREO SECCHI, SOHO LASCO, and Wind kilometric Type II data (kmTII) combined with WSA-Cone-ENLIL model simulations performed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). In particular, we identified the origin of the coronal mass ejection (CME) using STEREO EUVI and SOHO EIT images. A flux-rope model was fit to the SECCHI A and B, and LASCO images to determine the CMEs direction, size, and actual speed. J-maps from STEREO COR2HI-1HI-2 and simulations fromCCMC were used to study the formation and evolution of the shock in the inner heliosphere. In addition, we also studied the time-distance profile of the shock propagation from kmTII radio burst observations. The J-maps together with in-situ datafrom the Wind spacecraft provided an opportunity to validate the simulation results andthe kmTII prediction. Here we report on a comparison of two methods of predictinginterplanetary shock arrival time: the ENLIL model and the kmTII method; andinvestigate whether or not using the ENLIL model density improves the kmTIIprediction. We found that the ENLIL model predicted the kinematics of shock evolutionwell. The shock arrival times (SAT) and linear-fit shock velocities in the ENLILmodel agreed well with those measurements in the J-maps along both the CME leading edge and the Sun-Earth line. The ENLIL model also reproduced most of the largescale structures of the shock propagation and gave the SAT prediction at Earth with an error of 17 hours. The kmTII method predicted the SAT at Earth with an error of 15 hours when using n0 4.16 cm3, the ENLIL model plasma density near Earth; but itimproved to 2 hours when using n0 6.64 cm3, the model density near the CMEleading edge at 1 AU.

Space weather forecast↗

NASA NTRS2012

Characteristics of Kinematics of a Coronal Mass Ejection During the 2010 August 1 CME-CME Interaction Event

We study the interaction of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the 2010 August 1 events using STEREO/SECCHI COR and HI data. We obtain the direction of motion for both CMEs by applying several independent reconstruction methods and find that the CMEs head in similar directions. This provides evidence that a full interaction takes place between the two CMEs that can be observed in the HI1 field-of-view. The full de-projected kinematics of the faster CME from Sun to Earth is derived by combining remote observations with in situ measurements of the CME at 1 AU. The speed profile of the faster CME (CME2; (is) approximately 1200 km s−1) shows a strong deceleration over the distance range at which it reaches the slower, preceding CME (CME1; (is) approximately 700 km s−1). By applying a drag-based model we are able to reproduce the kinematical profile of CME2 suggesting that CME1 represents a magnetohydrodynamic obstacle for CME2 and that, after the interaction, the merged entity propagates as a single structure in an ambient flow of speed and density typical for quiet solar wind conditions. Observational facts show that magnetic forces may contribute to the enhanced deceleration of CME2. We speculate that the increase in magnetic tension and pressure, when CME2 bends and compresses the magnetic field lines of CME1, increases the efficiency of drag.

HI data↗

NASA NTRS2011

Comparative Validation of Realtime Solar Wind Forecasting Using the UCSD Heliospheric Tomography Model

The University of California, San Diego 3D Heliospheric Tomography Model reconstructs the evolution of heliospheric structures, and can make forecasts of solar wind density and velocity up to 72 hours in the future. The latest model version, installed and running in realtime at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), analyzes scintillations of meter wavelength radio point sources recorded by the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory(STELab) together with realtime measurements of solar wind speed and density recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor(SWEPAM).The solution is reconstructed using tomographic techniques and a simple kinematic wind model. Since installation, the CCMC has been recording the model forecasts and comparing them with ACE measurements, and with forecasts made using other heliospheric models hosted by the CCMC. We report the preliminary results of this validation work and comparison with alternative models.

MacNeice, Peter↗