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Olds, John R.

Publications and source records attributed to Olds, John R..

Technology Estimating: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

NASA is investing in new technologies that include 14 primary technology roadmap areas, and aeronautics. Understanding the cost for research and development of these technologies and the time it takes to increase the maturity of the technology is important to the support of the ongoing and future NASA missions. Overall, technology estimating may help provide guidance to technology investment strategies to help improve evaluation of technology affordability, and aid in decision support. The research provides a summary of the framework development of a Technology Estimating process where four technology roadmap areas were selected to be studied. The framework includes definition of terms, discussion for narrowing the focus from 14 NASA Technology Roadmap areas to four, and further refinement to include technologies, TRL range of 2 to 6. Included in this paper is a discussion to address the evaluation of 20 unique technology parameters that were initially identified, evaluated and then subsequently reduced for use in characterizing these technologies. A discussion of data acquisition effort and criteria established for data quality are provided. The findings obtained during the research included gaps identified, and a description of a spreadsheet-based estimating tool initiated as a part of the Technology Estimating process.

Cole, Stuart K.

A Capability to Generate Physics-based Mass Estimating Relationships for Conceptual Space Vehicle Design

This paper is written in support of the on-going research into conceptual space vehicle design conducted at the Space Systems Design Laboratory (SSDL) at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Research at the SSDL follows a sequence of a number of the traditional aerospace disciplines. The sequence of disciplines and interrelationship among them is shown in the Design Structure Matrix (DSM). The discipline of Weights and Sizing occupies a central location in the design of a new space vehicle. Weights and Sizing interact, either in a feed forward or feed back manner, with every other discipline in the DSM. Because of this principle location, accuracy in Weights and Sizing is integral to producing an accurate model of a space vehicle concept. Instead of using conceptual level techniques, a simplified Finite Element Analysis (FEA) technique is described as applied to the problem of the Liquid Oxygen (LOX) tank bending loads applied to the forward Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) tank of the Georgia Tech Air Breathing Launch Vehicle (ABLV).

Olds, John R.

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.

Improvements in Thermal Protection Sizing Capabilities for TCAT: Conceptual Design for Advanced Space Transportation Systems

The Thermal Calculation Analysis Tool (TCAT), originally developed for the Space Systems Design Lab at the Georgia Institute of Technology, is a conceptual design tool capable of integrating aeroheating analysis into conceptual reusable launch vehicle design. It provides Thermal Protection System (TPS) unit thicknesses and acreage percentages based on the geometry of the vehicle and a reference trajectory to be used in calculation of the total cost and weight of the vehicle design. TCAT has proven to be reasonably accurate at calculating the TPS unit weights for in-flight trajectories; however, it does not have the capability of sizing TPS materials above cryogenic fuel tanks for ground hold operations. During ground hold operations, the vehicle is held for a brief period (generally about two hours) during which heat transfer from the TPS materials to the cryogenic fuel occurs. If too much heat is extracted from the TPS material, the surface temperature may fall below the freezing point of water, thereby freezing any condensation that may be present at the surface of the TPS. Condensation or ice on the surface of the vehicle is potentially hazardous to the mission and can also damage the TPS. It is questionable whether or not the TPS thicknesses provided by the aeroheating analysis would be sufficiently thick to insulate the surface of the TPS from the heat transfer to the fuel. Therefore, a design tool has been developed that is capable of sizing TPS materials at these cryogenic fuel tank locations to augment TCAT's TPS sizing capabilities.

Olds, John R.

A Method of Integrating Aeroheating into Conceptual Reusable Launch Vehicle Design: Evaluation of Advanced Thermal Protection Techniques for Future Reusable Launch Vehicles

A method for integrating Aeroheating analysis into conceptual reusable launch vehicle (RLV) design is presented in this thesis. This process allows for faster turn-around time to converge a RLV design through the advent of designing an optimized thermal protection system (TPS). It consists of the coupling and automation of four computer software packages: MINIVER, TPSX, TCAT, and ADS. MINIVER is an Aeroheating code that produces centerline radiation equilibrium temperatures, convective heating rates, and heat loads over simplified vehicle geometries. These include flat plates and swept cylinders that model wings and leading edges, respectively. TPSX is a NASA Ames material properties database that is available on the World Wide Web. The newly developed Thermal Calculation Analysis Tool (TCAT) uses finite difference methods to carry out a transient in-depth 1-D conduction analysis over the center mold line of the vehicle. This is used along with the Automated Design Synthesis (ADS) code to correctly size the vehicle's thermal protection system (TPS). The numerical optimizer ADS uses algorithms that solve constrained and unconstrained design problems. The resulting outputs for this process are TPS material types, unit thicknesses, and acreage percentages. TCAT was developed for several purposes. First, it provides a means to calculate the transient in-depth conduction seen by the surface of the TPS material that protects a vehicle during ascent and reentry. Along with the in-depth conduction, radiation from the surface of the material is calculated along with the temperatures at the backface and interior parts of the TPS material. Secondly, TCAT contributes added speed and automation to the overall design process. Another motivation in the development of TCAT is optimization. In some vehicles, the TPS accounts for a high percentage of the overall vehicle dry weight. Optimizing the weight of the TPS will thereby lower the percentage of the dry weight accounted for by the TPS. Also, this will lower the cost of the TPS and the overall cost of the vehicle.

Olds, John R.

Evaluation of Advanced Thermal Protection Techniques for Future Reusable Launch Vehicles

A method for integrating Aeroheating analysis into conceptual reusable launch vehicle RLV design is presented in this thesis. This process allows for faster turn-around time to converge a RLV design through the advent of designing an optimized thermal protection system (TPS). It consists of the coupling and automation of four computer software packages: MINIVER, TPSX, TCAT and ADS. MINIVER is an Aeroheating code that produces centerline radiation equilibrium temperatures, convective heating rates, and heat loads over simplified vehicle geometries. These include flat plates and swept cylinders that model wings and leading edges, respectively. TPSX is a NASA Ames material properties database that is available on the World Wide Web. The newly developed Thermal Calculation Analysis Tool (TCAT) uses finite difference methods to carry out a transient in-depth I-D conduction analysis over the center mold line of the vehicle. This is used along with the Automated Design Synthesis (ADS) code to correctly size the vehicle's thermal protection system JPS). The numerical optimizer ADS uses algorithms that solve constrained and unconstrained design problems. The resulting outputs for this process are TPS material types, unit thicknesses, and acreage percentages. TCAT was developed for several purposes. First, it provides a means to calculate the transient in-depth conduction seen by the surface of the TPS material that protects a vehicle during ascent and reentry. Along with the in-depth conduction, radiation from the surface of the material is calculated along with the temperatures at the backface and interior parts of the TPS material. Secondly, TCAT contributes added speed and automation to the overall design process. Another motivation in the development of TCAT is optimization.

Olds, John R.

Investigation of Vehicle Requirements and Options for Future Space Tourism

The research in support of this grant was performed by the PI, Dr. John Olds, and graduate students in the Space Systems Design Lab (SSDL) at Georgia Tech over the period December 1999 to December 2000. The work was sponsored by Dr. Ted Talay, branch chief of the Vehicle Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center. The objective of the project was to examine the characteristics of future space tourism markets and to identify the vehicle requirements that are necessary to enable this emerging new business segment.

Olds, John R.

Improving Conceptual Design for Launch Vehicles. The Bimese Concept: A Study of Mission and Economic Options

This report summarizes key activities conducted in the third and final year of the cooperative agreement NCC1-229 entitled "Improving Conceptual Design for Launch Vehicles." This project has been funded by the Vehicle Analysis Branch at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, VA. Work has been performed by the Space Systems Design Lab (SSDL) at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA. Accomplishments during the first and second years of this project have been previously reported in annual progress reports. This report will focus on the third and final year of the three year activity.

Olds, John R.

Launch Vehicle Systems Analysis

This report summaries the key accomplishments of Georgia Tech's Space Systems Design Laboratory (SSDL) under NASA Grant NAG8-1302 from NASA - Marshall Space Flight Center. The report consists of this summary white paper, copies of technical papers written under this grant, and several viewgraph-style presentations. During the course of this grant four main tasks were completed: (1)Simulated Combined-Cycle Rocket Engine Analysis Module (SCCREAM), a computer analysis tool for predicting the performance of various RBCC engine configurations; (2) Hyperion, a single stage to orbit vehicle capable of delivering 25,000 pound payloads to the International Space Station Orbit; (3) Bantam-X Support - a small payload mission; (4) International Trajectory Support for interplanetary human Mars missions.

Olds, John R.

Launch Vehicle Assessment for Space Solar Power

A recently completed study at Georgia Tech examined various launch vehicle options for deploying a future constellation of Space Solar Power satellites of the Suntower configuration. One of the motivations of the study was to determine whether the aggressive $400/kg launch price goal established for SSP package delivery would result in an attractive economic scenario for a future RLV developer. That is, would the potential revenue and traffic to be derived from a large scale SSP project be enough of an economic "carrot" to attract an RLV company into developing a new, low cost launch vehicle to address this market. Preliminary results presented in the attached charts show that there is enough economic reward for RLV developers, specifically in the case of the latest large GEO-based Suntower constellations (over 15,500 MT per year delivery for 30 years). For that SSP model, internal rates of return for the 30 year economic scenario exceed 22%. However, up-front government assistance to the RLV developer in terms of ground facilities, operations technologies, guaranteed low-interest rate loans, and partial offsets of some vehicle development expenses is necessary to achieve these positive results. This white paper is meant to serve as a companion to the data supplied in the accompanying charts. It's purpose is to provide more detail on the vehicles and design processes used, to highlight key decisions and issues, and to emphasize key results from each phase of the Georgia Tech study.

Olds, John R.

Highly Reusable Space Transportation System Concept Evaluation (The Argus Launch Vehicle)

This paper summarizes the results of a conceptual design study that was performed in support of NASA's recent Highly Reusable Space Transportation study. The Argus concept uses a Maglifter magnetic-levitation sled launch assist system to accelerate it to a takeoff ground speed of 800 fps on its way to delivering a payload of 20,000 lb. to low earth orbit. Main propulsion is provided by two supercharged ejector rocket engines. The vehicle is autonomous and is fully reusable. A conceptual design exercise determined the vehicle gross weight to be approximately 597,250 lb. and the dry weight to be 75,500 lb. Aggressive weight and operations cost assumptions were used throughout the design process consistent with a second-generation reusable system that might be deployed in 10-15 years. Drawings, geometry, and weight of the concept are included. Preliminary development, production, and operations costs along with a business scenario assuming a price-elastic payload market are also included. A fleet of three Argus launch vehicles flying a total of 149 flights per year is shown to have a financial internal rate of return of 28%. At $169/lb., the recurring cost of Argus is shown to meet the study goal of $100/lb.-$200/lb., but optimum market price results in only a factor of two to five reduction compared to today's launch systems.

Olds, John R.

Highly reusable space transportation: Approaches for reducing ETO launch costs to $100 - $200 per pound of payload

The Commercial Space Transportation Study (CSTS) suggests that considerable market expansion in earth-to-orbit transportation would take place if current launch prices could be reduced to around $400 per pound of payload. If these low prices can be achieved, annual payload delivered to low earth orbit (LEO) is predicted to reach 6.7 million pounds. The primary market growth will occur in communications, government missions, and civil transportation. By establishing a cost target of $100-$200 per pound of payload for a new launch system, the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) program has clearly set its sights on removing the current restriction on market growth imposed by today's high launch costs. In particular, achieving the goal of $100-$200 per pound of payload will require significant coordinated efforts in (1) marketing strategy development, (2) business planning, (3) system operational strategy, (4) vehicle technical design, and (5) vehicle maintenance strategy.

Olds, John R.

System Sensitivity Analysis Applied to the Conceptual Design of a Dual-Fuel Rocket SSTO

This paper reports the results of initial efforts to apply the System Sensitivity Analysis (SSA) optimization method to the conceptual design of a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) launch vehicle. SSA is an efficient, calculus-based MDO technique for generating sensitivity derivatives in a highly multidisciplinary design environment. The method has been successfully applied to conceptual aircraft design and has been proven to have advantages over traditional direct optimization methods. The method is applied to the optimization of an advanced, piloted SSTO design similar to vehicles currently being analyzed by NASA as possible replacements for the Space Shuttle. Powered by a derivative of the Russian RD-701 rocket engine, the vehicle employs a combination of hydrocarbon, hydrogen, and oxygen propellants. Three primary disciplines are included in the design - propulsion, performance, and weights & sizing. A complete, converged vehicle analysis depends on the use of three standalone conceptual analysis computer codes. Efforts to minimize vehicle dry (empty) weight are reported in this paper. The problem consists of six system-level design variables and one system-level constraint. Using SSA in a 'manual' fashion to generate gradient information, six system-level iterations were performed from each of two different starting points. The results showed a good pattern of convergence for both starting points. A discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the method, possible areas of improvement, and future work is included.

Olds, John R.

Multidisciplinary design of a rocket-based combined cycle SSTO launch vehicle using Taguchi methods

Results are presented from the optimization process of a winged-cone configuration SSTO launch vehicle that employs a rocket-based ejector/ramjet/scramjet/rocket operational mode variable-cycle engine. The Taguchi multidisciplinary parametric-design method was used to evaluate the effects of simultaneously changing a total of eight design variables, rather than changing them one at a time as in conventional tradeoff studies. A combination of design variables was in this way identified which yields very attractive vehicle dry and gross weights.

Olds, John R.

The suitability of selected multidisciplinary design and optimization techniques to conceptual aerospace vehicle design

Four methods for preliminary aerospace vehicle design are reviewed. The first three methods (classical optimization, system decomposition, and system sensitivity analysis (SSA)) employ numerical optimization techniques and numerical gradients to feed back changes in the design variables. The optimum solution is determined by stepping through a series of designs toward a final solution. Of these three, SSA is argued to be the most applicable to a large-scale highly coupled vehicle design where an accurate minimum of an objective function is required. With SSA, several tasks can be performed in parallel. The techniques of classical optimization and decomposition can be included in SSA, resulting in a very powerful design method. The Taguchi method is more of a 'smart' parametric design method that analyzes variable trends and interactions over designer specified ranges with a minimum of experimental analysis runs. Its advantages are its relative ease of use, ability to handle discrete variables, and ability to characterize the entire design space with a minimum of analysis runs.

Olds, John R.