Engineering topics
Oman, Luke
Publications and source records attributed to Oman, Luke.
Evaluation of MERRA-2-Based Ozone Profile Simulations with the Global Ozonesonde Network
Chemical transport model (CTM) hindcasts of ozone (O3) are useful for filling in observational gaps and providing context for observed O3 variability and trends. We use global networks of ozonesonde stations to evaluate the O3 profiles in two simulations running versions of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism. Both simulations are tied to the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorological reanalysis: 1) The GMI CTM, and 2) The MERRA-2 GMI Replay (M2 GMI). Both simulations start in 1980, and are compared against >50,000 ozonesonde profiles from 37 global stations from the tropics to the poles. The comparisons allow us to evaluate how the Replay technique affects modeled O3 distribution, how an updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM affects simulated tropospheric O3 amounts, and how observed O3 distributions compare to the full set of model output. In general, M2 GMI O3 is ~10% higher than in the GMI CTM, and shows global near-surface and tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) high biases. The updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM reduces these high biases. Both simulations show similar negative biases in tropical free-tropospheric O3, especially during typical biomass burning seasons. The simulations are highly-correlated with ozonesonde measurements, particularly in the UT/LS (r > 0.8), showing the ability of MERRA-2 to capture tropopause height variations. Both simulations show improved correlations with ozonesonde data and smaller O3 biases in recent years. We expect to use the sonde/model comparisons to diagnose causes of disagreement and to gauge the feasibility of calculating multidecadal O3 trends from the model output.
Quantifying the Effect of Mixing on the Mean Age of Air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 Models
The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.
Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model
Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay" mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context of our increasing understanding of model transport driven by assimilated winds.
The Impact of ENSO on Trace Gas Composition in the Upper Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere and its effects extend well into the stratosphere. Its impact on atmospheric dynamics and chemistry cause important changes to trace gas constituent distributions. A comprehensive suite of satellite observations, reanalyses, and chemistry climate model simulations are illuminating our understanding of processes like ENSO. Analyses of more than a decade of observations from NASAs Aura and Aqua satellites, combined with simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and other Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) models, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis have provided key insights into the response of atmospheric composition to ENSO. While we will primarily focus on ozone and water vapor responses in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, the effects of ENSO ripple through many important trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. The very large 2015-2016 El Nino event provides an opportunity to closely examine these impacts with unprecedented observational breadth. An improved quantification of natural climate variations, like those from ENSO, is needed to detect and quantify anthropogenic climate changes.
Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex
The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.
Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Zonal Asymmetries on the Tropospheric Circulation
The depletion and recovery of Antarctic ozone plays a major role in changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropospheric climate. Recent studies indicate that the lack of polar ozone asymmetries in chemistry climate models (CCM) leads to a weaker and warmer Antarctic vortex, and smaller trends in the tropospheric mid-latitude jet and the surface pressure. However, the tropospheric response to ozone asymmetries is not well understood. In this study we report on a series of integrations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to further examine the effect of zonal asymmetries on the state of the stratosphere and troposphere. Integrations with the full, interactive stratospheric chemistry are compared against identical simulations using the same CCM except that (1) the monthly mean zonal mean stratospheric ozone from first simulation is prescribed and (2) ozone is relaxed to the monthly mean zonal mean ozone on a three day time scale. To analyze the tropospheric response to ozone asymmetries, we examine trends and quantify the differences in temperatures, zonal wind and surface pressure among the integrations.
Connections Between the TTL and Sea Surface Temperatures: Interannual Variability and Trends
Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.
Air Mass Origin in the Arctic and its Response to Future Warming
We present the first climatology of air mass origin in the Arctic in terms of rigorously defined air mass fractions that partition air according to where it last contacted the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Results from a present-day climate integration of the GEOSCCM general circulation model reveal that the Arctic lower troposphere below 700 mb is dominated year round by air whose last PBL contact occurred poleward of 60degN, (Arctic air, or air of Arctic origin). By comparison, approx. 63% of the Arctic troposphere above 700 mb originates in the NH midlatitude PBL, (midlatitude air). Although seasonal changes in the total fraction of midlatitude air are small, there are dramatic changes in where that air last contacted the PBL, especially above 700 mb. Specifically, during winter air in the Arctic originates preferentially over the oceans, approx. 26% in the East Pacific, and approx. 20% in the Atlantic PBL. By comparison, during summer air in the Arctic last contacted the midlatitude PBL primarily over land, overwhelmingly so in Asia (approx. 40 %) and, to a lesser extent, in North America (approx. 24%). Seasonal changes in air-mass origin are interpreted in terms of seasonal variations in the large-scale ventilation of the midlatitude boundary layer and lower troposphere, namely changes in the midlatitude tropospheric jet and associated transient eddies during winter and large scale convective motions over midlatitudes during summer.
The Connection between Model Performance on the CCMVal Transport Diagnostics and Simulated Sensitivity of Ozone to Chlorine Change
The chemistry climate models that contributed simulations for past and future ozone evolution to the 2010 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion were subject to extensive evaluation by the SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) CCMVal (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation) activity. The sensitivity of ozone to changes in composition and climate varies among the models, but the relationship between these variations and the model evaluations of CCMVal is not obvious. We have learned that the transport evaluation can be used to interpret the comparisons between observed and simulated columns of chlorine reservoirs, hydrochloric acid (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2); these comparisons were part of the CCMVal evaluation of chemistry. The simulations with best performance on the transport diagnostics most faithfully reproduce the evolution and seasonal variation of the chlorine reservoirs as observed at NDACC (Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) stations (NyAlesund 78.9N, Kiruna 67.8N, Harestua 60.2N, Jungfraujoch 46.6N, Toronto 43.6N, Kitt Peak 31.9N, Izana 28.3N, Mauna Loa 19.5N, Lauder 45S and Arrival Heights 77.8S). In the simulations, the HCl in the lower stratosphere depends on total inorganic chlorine (Cly) and partitioning between HCl and ClON02. Total inorganic chlorine depends on the fractional release of chlorine from source gases, and ratio of ClON02 to HCl is inversely dependent on methane and varies quadratically with ozone. Simulated HCl from various models may agree with observations even though Cly is in error, partitioning is in error, or both. Simulated ozone sensitivity to chlorine is shown to be greater for models that produce larger values of chlorine nitrate for background chlorine levels, and vice versa. Comparisons with the NDACC data show why the models with 'best' transport have similar sensitivity to chlorine change. The realistic evolution of the simulated HCl and ClONO2 columns suggests realistic levels of Cly in the lower atmosphere. In addition, the wide range values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine obtained from the CCMVal simulations is explained by the wide range in lower atmospheric columns of ClONO2 and the concomitant wide range of levels for chlorine monoxide.
The Vertical Structure of Relative Humidity and Ozone in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: Intercomparisons Among In Situ Observations, A-Train Measurements and Large-Scale Models
In situ measurements in the tropics have shown that in regions of active convection, relative humidity with respect to ice in the upper troposphere is typically close to saturation on average, and supersaturations greater than 20% are not uncommon. Balloon soundings with the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH) at Costa Rica during northern summer, for example, show this tendency to be strongest between 11 and 15.5 km (345-360 K potential temperature, or approximately 250-120 hPa). this is the altitude range of deep convective detrainment. Additionally, simultaneous ozonesonde measurements show that stratospheric air (O3 greater than 150 ppbv) can be found as low as approximately 14 km (350 K/150 hPa). In contrast, results from northern winter show a much drier upper troposphere and little penetration of stratospheric air below the tropopause at 17.5 km (approximately 383 K). We show that these results are consistent with in situ measurements from the Measurement of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) program which samples a wider, though still limited, range of tropical locations. To generalize to the tropics as a whole, we compare our insitu results to data from two A-Train satellite instruments, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aqua and Aura satellites respectively. Finally, we examine the vertical structure of water vapor, relative humidity and ozone in the NASA Goddard MERRA analysis, an assimilation dataset, and a new version of the GEOS CCM, a free-running chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that conditional probability distributions of relative humidity and ozone are a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the representation of deep convection and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere mixing processes in large-scale analyses and climate models.
Trend Analysis and Detection of Changes in the Stratospheric Circulation
Increases in the circulation of the stratosphere appear to be a robust result of climate change in chemistry-climate models over decadal time scales. To date observations have yet to show a significant change in this circulation. It is important for the design of future observational missions to identify suitable atmospheric constituents and to determine the accuracy and length of record needed to identify a significant trend that can be attributed to circulation change. First, we determine what atmospheric variables can be used as proxies for stratospheric circulation changes. A few examples are changes in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, phase lag of the water vapor tape recorder, CO2, and SF6. Then, using both the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) and observations from satellites and balloon soundings, we calculate the number of years needed to detect a significant trend, taking into account observational uncertainty. Model simulations will be evaluated to see how well they represent observed variability. In addition, the impacts of autocorrelation among the output or data and gaps in the observational record will be discussed.
Mechanisms and Feedbacks Causing Changes in Upper Stratospheric Ozone in the 21st Century
Stratospheric ozone is expected to increase during the 21st century as the abundance of halogenated ozone-depleting substances decrease to 1960 values. However, climate change will likely alter this "recovery" of stratospheric ozone by changing stratospheric temperatures, circulation, and abundance of reactive chemical species. Here we quantity the contribution of different mechanisms to changes in upper stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM), using multiple linear regression analysis applied to simulations using either Alb or A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. In both these scenarios upper stratospheric ozone has a secular increase over the 21st century. For the simulation using the Alb GHG scenario, this increase is determined by the decrease in halogen amounts and the greenhouse gas induced cooling, with roughly equal contributions from each mechanism. There is a larger cooling in the simulation using the A2 GHG scenario, but also enhanced loss from higher NOy and HOx concentrations, which nearly offsets the increase due to cooler temperatures. The resulting ozone evolutions are similar in the A2 and Alb simulations. The response of ozone due to feedbacks from temperature and HOx changes, related to changing halogen concentrations, are also quantified using simulations with fixed halogen concentrations.
On the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on Changes in the Stratospheric Mean Age
A common feature of stratospheric simulations of the past or future is an increase in tropical upwelling and a decrease in mean age. Possible causes or these changes include (1) increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) driven by increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), (2) the direct radiative effect of increases in WMGHGs, and (3) changes in ozone. Here we examine a suite of simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM) to isolate the relative role of these three factors. Our analysis indicates that all three factors cause changes in the mean age, but the relative impact of each factor depends on the time period analyzed. Over the past 30-40 years ozone depletion is the major factor causing the decrease in mean age, with negligible changes due to direct radiative impact of WMGHG's. However, ozone is predicted to recover back to 1970 levels during the next 50-60 years, and this causes an increase in the mean age, whereas the continued increase in SSTs from increased levels of WMGHGs and the direct radiative impact of WMGHGs will still cause a decrease in the mean age. The net impact of these factors will still result in a decreasing mean age although the rate will be smaller than that of the past. The decreases in mean age are primarily caused by increases in upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere. The increased upwelling from both increased tropical SSTs and polar ozone loss appears to be related to changes in zonal winds and increases in wave activity propagating into the stratosphere. The different contributions of changes in SSTs, WMGHGs, and ozone to the circulation of the stratosphere may help explain the large spread in the rate of change of tropical upwelling seen in previous studies.
The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Implications of Climate Feedbacks on Ozone Depletion and Recovery
The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. The first version of the model was used in the CCMVal intercomparison exercises that contributed to the 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The second version incorporates the updated version of the GCM (GEOS 5) and will be used for the next round of CCMVal evaluations and the 2010 Ozone Assessment. The third version, now under development, incorporates the combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry package developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). We will show comparison to past observations that indicate that we represent the ozone trends over the past 30 years. We will also show the basic temperature, composition, and dynamical structure of the simulations. We will further show projections into the future. We will show results from an ensemble of transient and time-slice simulations, including simulations with fixed 1960 chlorine, simulations with a best guess scenario (Al), and simulations with extremely high chlorine loadings. We will discuss planned extensions of the model to include emission-based boundary conditions for both anthropogenic and biogenic compounds.