Engineering topics

Ortiz, Robert

Publications and source records attributed to Ortiz, Robert.

6 records

NASA NTRS1991

Surface wind convergence as a short-term predictor of cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

Cloud-to-ground lightning is a significant forecast problem at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. In this study, cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the convective seasons of 1985 and 1986 over a 790 sq-km network at KSC. The method uses surface convergence, particularly the average over the area, to identify the potential for new, local thunderstorm growth, and it can be used to specify the likely time and location of lightning during the life cycle of the convection. A threshold of 75 x 10 to the -6th/s change in divergence is the main criterion used to define a convergence event, and a set of flashes less than 30 min apart defines a lightning event. Time intervals are found from the study to be approximately 1 h from beginning convergence to first flash, and another hour to the end of lightning. The influences of low-level winds and midlevel moisture in determining the location and intensity of convection are discussed. This is the first known dynamically-based forecast method for lightning prediction. The technique, currently in use at KSC, has been shown to be a systematic, quantitative tool for predicting lightning onset in situations where conventional analysis tools such as radar and satellite are limited.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Use of the surface wind field as a predictor of thunderstorms and cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

The convergence-lightning nowcasting method that began to be operationally tested and evaluated by USAF personnel at the KSC in 1986 uses surface convergence, especially the areal average, to identify the potential for new thunderstorm growth. When this areal method fails, normalized cell convergence, which is defined as the integral of cellular convergence with respect to its area, can be used as a complementary technique in association with the areal one. A detailed examination is conducted for one day, and the relationship of normalized cell convergence to lightning flash counts is examined in a 68-day ensemble.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Short-term forecasting of thunderstorms at Kennedy Space Center, based on the surface wind field

Techniques incorporating wind convergence that can be used for the short-term prediction of thunderstorm development are described. With these techniques, the convergence signal is sensed by the wind network array 15 to 90 min before actual storm development. Particular attention is given to the convergence cell technique (which has been applied at the Kennedy Space Center) where each convective region is analyzed independently. It is noted that, while the monitoring of areal and cellular convergence can be used to help locate the seeds of developing thunderstorms and pinpoint the lightning threat areas, this forecasting aid cannot be used in isolation.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A composite study of Florida thunderstorms, using radar, cloud-to-ground lightning, and surface winds

Two thunderstorms occurring in Florida during the summer of 1987 are studied in order to determine the location of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning in terms of surface winds and radar reflectivity. Composites of radar, CG lightning locations, and surface winds during the development, mature, and dissipation stages of the storms are presented and analyzed. The relationship between lightning and radar reflectivity is examined. It is noted that the main CG lightning activity region is on the upshear side of the storm in the reflectivity gradient where upward motion is between the convergent gust front and reflectivity center, and lightning avoids areas of maximum reflectivity.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Meteorological aspects of cloud-to-ground lightning in the Kennedy Space Center region

This paper examines the meteorological environment in which cloud-to-ground lightning occurs at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) region during summer. Using the lightning patterns of central Florida, flashes from individual thunderstorms were analyzed for five low-level wind regimes during three summers. The results showed large differences between the number, timing, and location of flashes for varying flow regimes, with southwest flow being the most prolific producer of flashes in the KSC area. In the second part of the study, short-term forecasts of lightning were investigated using the divergence measured by the KSC surface wind network. An interval of about 1 hour was found from the beginning of a convergence event to first lightning. Monitoring 5-min surface convergence, in combination with understanding the climatology of lightning related to the daily flow regime, made it possible to isolate the lightning. Results were used successfully in operations at KSC.

Holle, Ronald L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Short-term forecasting of lightning based on the surface wind field at Kennedy Space Center

Cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the summer over a 790 sqkm network. The method uses surface convergence, particularly the average over the area, to identify the potential for new, local thunderstorm growth, and can be used to specify the likely time and location of lightning during the life cycle of the convection. A threshold of 0.0000075/sec change in divergence is used to define a convergence event, and a separation of 30 min between flashes defines a lightning event. Time intervals are found to be on the order of 1 hr from beginning convergence to first flash, and (CH110) 2 hr from beginning convergence to the end of lightning. Major differences between the convergence-lightning relationships based on low-level mean onshore and offshore flow are noted.

Watson, Andrew I.↗