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Orville, Harold D.

Publications and source records attributed to Orville, Harold D..

Atmospheric Flux Computations in Complex Terrain

The greatest challenges in applying atmospheric water budget expressions are in determining the divergence and evapotranspiration terms. The evapotranspiration problem is ubiquitous, and critical issues of spatial and temporal resolution commonly arise in establishing the divergence term. In complex terrain, further difficulties crop up in using typical data on atmospheric profiles of water vapor and wind to estimate the divergence term. Those difficulties are the subject of this paper; considerations related to topographic variations both along and normal to the flow direction are treated.

Smith, Paul L.↗

The Use of a Two-Dimensional, Time-Dependent Cloud Model to Predict Convective and Stratiform Clouds and Precipitation

A two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model has been used in two field projects to forecast the convective development during the day from the morning sounding. In effect, the cloud model gives a dynamic analysis of the sounding as affected by heating and evaporation at the earth's surface, divergence of the winds throughout the atmosphere, and cloud shadow effects. During the initial project, the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment, the results were mixed. Model runs were easily made when soundings were available. but displaying the results in a meaningful and useful way was the limiting factor. In a later experiment, the North Dakota Thunderstorm Project, the problem of displaying results was overcome and soundings were available from the local weather service forecast office with a high degree of reliability. The experimental model correctly forecasts convective development about 80% of the time, and precipitation or no precipitation more than 70% of the time.

Kopp, Fred J.↗

A cloud, precipitation and electrification modeling effort for COHMEX

In mid-1987, the Modeling Group of the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (IAS) began to simulate and analyze cloud runs that were made during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) Project and later. The cloud model was run nearly every day during the summer 1986 COHMEX Project. The Modeling Group was then funded to analyze the results, make further modeling tests, and help explain the precipitation processes in the Southeastern United States. The main science objectives of COHMEX were: (1) to observe the prestorm environment and understand the physical mechanisms leading to the formation of small convective systems and processes controlling the production of precipitation; (2) to describe the structure of small convective systems producing precipitation including the large and small scale events in the environment surrounding the developing and mature convective system; (3) to understand the interrelationships between electrical activity within the convective system and the process of precipitation; and (4) to develop and test numerical models describing the boundary layer, tropospheric, and cloud scale thermodynamics and dynamics associated with small convective systems. The latter three of these objectives were addressed by the modeling activities of the IAS. A series of cloud modes were used to simulate the clouds that formed during the operational project. The primary models used to date on the project were a two dimensional bulk water model, a two dimensional electrical model, and to a lesser extent, a two dimensional detailed microphysical cloud model. All of the models are based on fully interacting microphysics, dynamics, thermodynamics, and electrical equations. Only the 20 July 1986 case was analyzed in detail, although all of the cases run during the summer were analyzed as to how well they did in predicting the characteristics of the convection for that day.

Orville, Harold D.↗

A parameterization of radiation heating at the surface in a numerical cloud model

The development of the parameterized radiation heat flux incorporated in a 2D time-dependent model that was tested for its predictive capabilities during the COHMEX project in 1986 is described, together with two experiments for using the model in the predictive mode. Using the 12 Z sounding during the North Dakota Thunderstorm Project in 1989, it was found that the COHMEX model was quite successful in simulating the convection and predicting the cloud characteristics.

Kopp, Fred J.↗

More on the microphysics and dynamics of microbursts

Two different microburst case studies which have been completed for the dynamic term addition and represent different forcing mechanisms and environments are discussed. These studies include the JAWS microburst, a fairly dry case with little rain reaching the surface, and the COHMEX microburst, a very moist case producing heavy rain and some hail. It is concluded that the dynamic term shows a positive value for both cases and an improvement in the diagnostic value of the microburst index.

Orville, Harold D.↗