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Orwig, Kirsten

Publications and source records attributed to Orwig, Kirsten.

7 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead)wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefitanalysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S.Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh(HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Statistical Characterization of Solar Photovoltaic Power Variability at Small Timescales: Preprint

Integrating large amounts of variable and uncertain solar photovoltaic power into the electricity grid is a growing concern for power system operators in a number of different regions. Power system operators typically accommodate variability, whether from load, wind, or solar, by carrying reserves that can quickly change their output to match the changes in the solar resource. At timescales inthe seconds-to-minutes range, this is known as regulation reserve. Previous studies have shown that increasing the geographic diversity of solar resources can reduce the short term-variability of the power output. As the price of solar has decreased, the emergence of very large PV plants (greater than 10 MW) has become more common. These plants present an interesting case because they are largeenough to exhibit some spatial smoothing by themselves. This work examines the variability of solar PV output among different arrays in a large (50 MW) PV plant in the western United States, including the correlation in power output changes between different arrays, as well as the aggregated plant output, at timescales ranging from one second to five minutes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influencedby weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale iscritical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Foundational Solar Resource Research (Poster)

SunShot Initiative awardee posters describing the different technologies within the four subprograms of the DOE Solar Program (Photovoltaics, Concentrating Solar Power, Soft Costs, and Systems Integration).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

NREL Overview Video

Welcome to NREL! The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) primary national laboratory for renewable energy and energy efficiency. NREL's work focuses on advancing renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies from concept to the commercial marketplace through industry partnerships.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗