Engineering topics

Oster, Matthew R.

Publications and source records attributed to Oster, Matthew R..

11 records

DOE OSTI2024

A tri-level optimization model for interdependent infrastructure network resilience against compound hazard events

Resilient operation of interdependent infrastructures against compound hazard events is essential for maintaining societal well-being. To address consequence assessment challenges in this problem space, we propose a novel policy-guided tri-level optimization model applied to a proof-of-concept case study with fuel distribution and transportation networks – encompassing one realistic network; one fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as networks drawn from three synthetic distributions. Mathematically, our approach takes the form of a defender-attacker-defender (DAD) model—a multi-agent tri-level optimization, comprised of a defender, attacker, and an operator acting in sequence. Here, in this study, our notional operator may choose proxy actions to operate an interdependent system comprised of fuel terminals and gas stations (functioning as supplies) and a transportation network with traffic flow (functioning as demand) to minimize unmet demand at gas stations. A notional attacker aims to hypothetically disrupt normal operations by reducing supply at the supply terminals, and the notional defender aims to identify best proxy defense policy options which include hardening supply terminals or allowing alternative distribution methods such as trucking reserve supplies. We solve our DAD formulation at a metropolitan scale and present practical defense policy insights against hypothetical compound hazards. We demonstrate the generalizability of our framework by presenting results for a realistic network; a fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as for three networks drawn from synthetic distributions. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of the framework by investigating runtime performance as a function of the network size. Steps for future research are also discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-level optimization with the koopman operator for data-driven, domain-aware, and dynamic system security

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) like the power grid are critically important but also increasingly vulnerable; ensuring reliable system operation in the face of disruptions is becoming more and more challenging. Multi-Level Optimization (MLO) is a powerful way to model adversarial interactions, which naturally makes it applicable to studying CPS security. However, MLO typically does not address underlying system dynamics, and incorporating nonlinear dynamics is generally infeasible. In this paper, we show how to combine MLO with the Koopman Operator (KO) to remedy this. The KO maps nonlinear dynamics to a lifted space in which those dynamics are linear, thus making it ideal for use with MLO. Moreover, the structure of the KO also provides convenient ways to incorporate domain knowledge into the data-driven process of learning the KO representation of a given system. Here we then demonstrate the use of MLO-KO on a small example problem taken from the power grid domain, discuss the scalability and computational cost of MLO-KO, and identify future research directions for this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

ROTOR: Research to Operations and Operations to Research

PNNL’s Research to Operations/Operations to Research (ROTOR) Program fosters a cybersecurity operations to researcher collaboration, identifying hard problems and challenges for cyber defenders and bringing researcher science disciplines to these challenges. ROTOR allows PNNL’s cyber defenders to better protect the laboratory but also fosters innovation and incubation of solutions for our sponsor missions across DOE, DOD, DHS and the intelligence community. Our sponsors and their missions are faced with many of the same cyber defense challenges that PNNL faces. By using our own laboratory security operations environment as an innovation generator and testing ground, allowing research to be tested and tried, our sponsors are directly benefitted. PNNL is in a unique position to combine our world class research organization with enterprise cybersecurity operations. ROTOR is taking advantage of this to bring PNNL cybersecurity research projects into an operational environment within PNNL’s Cyber Security Operations Center. With ROTOR, PNNL researchers gain the advantage of operational experience and expertise and have an avenue for showcasing research in an operational environment. This helps to advance PNNL research, prove operability of PNNL projects to its sponsors, and provide real-world insight to real-world problems for our cybersecurity research agenda. ROTOR is the conduit for PNNL cybersecurity research to find its way to operational use. PNNL researchers and engineers are informed by real-world operations and operations has access to current PNNL research and engineering capabilities. All of this leads to improved reputation for PNNL as a provider of national security solutions that are tried and tested. To date, ROTOR has collaborated with six projects, enabling each to conduct operational work within the CSOC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

DSO+T: Integrated System Simulation (DSO+T Study: Volume 2)

This report summarizes an integrated co-simulation model used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to represent an electrical generation, delivery, and end-load systems for the purposes of assessing the viability and value proposition of transactive energy coordination of flexible assets versus a business-as-usual case. The integrated co-simulation model includes the bulk generation and transmission system, including the day-ahead and real-time scheduling and dispatch of thermal generators. Forty distribution system operators were modelled in detail, including tens of thousands of residential and commercial buildings and their flexible end-loads. These included HVAC systems, residential water heaters, electric vehicles, and stationary, behind-the-meter, batteries. Both wholesale market and end-load results for the business-as-usual case are presented and compared to actual ERCOT system data to assess the accuracy and representativeness of the resulting model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solving the Dynamics-Aware Economic Dispatch Problem with the Koopman Operator

The dynamics-aware economic dispatch (DED) problem embeds low-level generator dynamics and operational constraints to enable near real-time scheduling of generation units in a power network. DED produces a more dynamic supervisory control policy than traditional economic dispatch (T-ED) that reduces overall generation costs. However, in contrast to T-ED, DED is a nonlinear, non-convex optimization problem that is computationally prohibitive to solve. We introduce a machine learning-based operator-theoretic approach for solving the DED problem efficiently. Specifically, we develop a novel discrete-time Koopman Operator (KO) formulation that embeds domain information into the structure of the KO to learn high-fidelity approximations of the generator dynamics. Using the KO approximation, the DED problem can be reformulated as a computationally tractable linear program (abbreviated DED-KO). We demonstrate the high solution quality and computational-time savings of the DED-KO model over the original DED formulation on a 9-bus test system.

King, Ethan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solvability, Operability, and Security for Cyber-Physical Systems: New Computational Methods with Revised Assumptions

In this paper discusses the use and integration of disparate but complementary tools for dealing with solvability, operability, and security challenges in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs): the Koopman Operator (KO) for solvability, Disjunctive Programming (DP) for operability, and Multi-Level Optimisation (MLO) for security. These methods can obviate the need for some of the traditional assumptions used in modelling CPSs. This paper demonstrates the methods' capabilities and considers ways to advance each method individually. It concludes by discussing how to integrate the different methods and identify useful synergies generated by doing so.

koopman operator, disjunctive programming, multi-l↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Koopman Operator: Capabilities and Recent Advances

In this paper, we provide an introduction to the Koopman Operator (KO) designed to be accessible to those not already familiar with the field. Our aim is to expose domain experts and controls practitioners to the concept and the capabilities the KO provides in the interest of promoting wider KO use; as such, we deliberately focus more on the uses and computational aspects of the KO than on the wealth of analytical results in the literature. Those researchers may then be able to pose new applications-based research questions for the KO community. We begin by defining the KO and describing its key components. Secondly, we discuss computational methods used to calculate the KO in practice. Thirdly, we provide an overview of different uses for the KO and its associated capabilities. Finally, we discuss some open areas of research for future KO work.

koopman operator, dynamical systems, optimal contr↗

DOE OSTI2020

Power system resilience through defender-attacker-defender models with uncertainty: an overview

Protecting and fortifying a power system to make it resilient is an important and hard problem to solve. The interaction between defenders and attackers, the availability of information and the complexity of power system require carefully selecting models and presenting the underlying assumptions. Trilevel defender-attacker-defender models have been developed to investigate the resilience of power systems. In this paper, we review trilevel models in power system application, with the aim of demonstrating the accessibility and applicability of these complex optimization formulations and discussing the underlying assumptions from these models. In particular, we highlight modeling choices, algorithmic details, and how operational and information uncertainty affects resilience versus the traditional complete-knowledge-based optimal solutions. We also describe other similar relevant models which lack such uncertainty and discuss insights on how to address operational, attacker, and defender related uncertainties in future research efforts.

multi-level optimization, defender-attacker-defend↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Human Behavior and Decision Errors in Security Screening Operations

The potential for human errors in conducting security related screening operations can lead to inadvertent and adverse decision outcomes. This paper overviews an initial mathematical framework designed to model and quantify the various human factors and decision outcomes that may occur in conducting security screening operations, such as U.S. port of entry radiological and nuclear (rad/nuc) security screening. This framework is based on the Human Error Assessment and Reduction (HEART) technique. As applied here, the framework incorporates a set of rules for human engagement, including a prescribed concept of operations (CONOPS) and deviations that may occur from this established CONOPS due to inadvertent personnel decision errors. We also review some of the various factors that may adversely influence such decisions by security screening personnel. Some of these factors include current workload, environmental conditions, training, and various other intangible factors. Using the HEART methodology, we translate each of these factors into error producing conditions, their effects on error, an assessed proportion of effects, and finally the overall probability of human error at each stage of the screening process. We then include a small scale example to demonstrate the methodology and results based on an assumed set of input conditions at a notional port of entry.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Future Grid State Modeling for Transactive Systems

The simulation design and evaluation of a transactive energy system is contingent on the setting in which it would exist, which could vary significantly with the many drivers that impact the potential future states of the power system. This report summarizes the development of the Transactive Future Grid State (TFGS) model, which is a lightweight capacity expansion model that will support transactive energy research by allowing users to explore alternative future states. The TFGS model determines the long-term generation capacity needs of a given power system that satisfy specified constraints and support a least cost hourly dispatch. This is accomplished by solving a single optimization problem that simultaneously finds the generation fleet with capacity sufficient to meet peak load and the flexibility to meet hourly operational dispatch, all at lowest cost. The TFGS model was applied to a larger ongoing study taking place that will be simulating how distribution system operators (DSOs) could use a transactive energy system to manage distributed energy resources. The larger study, commonly referred to as the DSO+T study, involves two parallel analyses; one that represents the system today and one that represents a future system with a high degree of renewable energy penetration. The TFGS model provided the generation mix of the high renewable base case. As the TFGS model was being used to provide inputs to the DSO+T study, two issues became apparent. First, additional functionality would have been useful, and second, a larger-than-anticipated amount of user inputs and data were required to successfully use the TFGS model. These discoveries have lead to the recommendation of specific functionality that can be added in future development of the tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Aviation Transportation, Cyber Threats, and Network-of-Networks: Modeling Perspectives for Translating Theory to Practice

Understanding aviation transportation infrastructure system behavior and coupling with communication networks is essential for securing and restoring functionality against cyber-enabled threats. While significant progress has been made in the past decade on developing infrastructure resilience theories based on network structure and operations, translating and generalizing them to real-world practice has often been challenging due to imperfect data and inapplicability of modeling assumptions. These typically include: 1) stylized network structures without uncertainty, 2) node homogeneity, 3) static criticality measures, and 4) unrealistic cascade models originating from single points of failure. This paper presents modeling perspectives that aim to address these theory-to-practice challenges using a well-grounded network-of-networks (NoN) construct. Real-world modeling challenges are identified and a network theory-guided conceptual NoN model is developed that may be operationalized with the U.S. national airspace system airport network (NASAN) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) communication network as application domain. Improving accuracy in loss of functionality estimates due to cyber events in communication networks and cascading air travel delay impacts is key for informing consequence-based decision support and risk/contingency analyses.

Bhatia, Udit↗