Engineering topics

Palmer, Paul I.

Publications and source records attributed to Palmer, Paul I..

14 records

DOE OSTI2024

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Carbon Flux Response to Atmospheric Aridity and Water Storage Deficit During the 2015–2016 El Niño Compromised Carbon Balance Recovery in Tropical South America

During the 2015–2016 El Niño, the Amazon basin released almost one gigaton of carbon (GtC) into the atmosphere due to extreme temperatures and drought. The link between the drought impact and recovery of the total carbon pools and its biogeochemical drivers is still unknown. With satellite-constrained net carbon exchange and its component fluxes including gross primary production and fire emissions, we show that the total carbon loss caused by the 2015–2016 El Niño had not recovered by the end of 2018. Forest ecosystems over the Northeastern (NE) Amazon suffered a cumulative total carbon loss of ~0.6 GtC through December 2018, driven primarily by a suppression of photosynthesis whereas southeastern savannah carbon loss was driven in part by fire. We attribute the slow recovery to the unexpected large carbon loss caused by the severe atmospheric aridity coupled with a water storage deficit during drought. We show the attenuation of carbon uptake is three times higher than expected from the pre-drought sensitivity to atmospheric aridity and ground water supply. Our study fills an important knowledge gap in our understanding of the unexpectedly enhanced response of carbon fluxes to atmospheric aridity and water storage deficit and its impact on regional post-drought recovery as a function of the vegetation types and climate perturbations. Our results suggest that the disproportionate impact of water supply and demand could compromise resiliency of the Amazonian carbon balance to future increases in extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Model bias in simulating major chemical components of PM 2.5 in China

High concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) in China have caused severe visibility degradation. Accurate simulations of PM 2.5 and its chemical components are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of pollution control strategies and the health and climate impacts of air pollution. In this study, we compared the GEOS-Chem model simulations with comprehensive datasets for organic aerosol (OA), sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in China. Model results are evaluated spatially and temporally against observations. The new OA scheme with a simplified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) parameterization significantly improves the OA simulations in polluted urban areas, highlighting the important contributions of anthropogenic SOA from semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds. The model underestimates sulfate and overestimates nitrate for most of the sites throughout the year. More significant underestimation of sulfate occurs in winter, while the overestimation of nitrate is extremely large in summer. The model is unable to capture some of the main features in the diurnal pattern of the PM 2.5 chemical components, suggesting inaccuracies in the presented processes. Potential model adjustments that may lead to a better representation of the boundary layer height, the precursor emissions, hydroxyl radical concentrations, the heterogeneous formation of sulfate and nitrate, and the wet deposition of nitric acid and nitrate have been tested in the sensitivity analysis. The results show that uncertainties in chemistry perhaps dominate the model biases. The proper implementation of heterogeneous sulfate formation and the good estimates of the concentrations of sulfur dioxide, hydroxyl radical, and aerosol liquid water are essential for the improvement of the sulfate simulation. The update of the heterogeneous uptake coefficient of nitrogen dioxide significantly reduces the modeled concentrations of nitrate. However, the large overestimation of nitrate concentrations remains in summer for all tested cases. The possible bias in the chemical production and the wet deposition of nitrate cannot fully explain the model overestimation of nitrate, suggesting issues related to the atmospheric removal of nitric acid and nitrate. A better understanding of the atmospheric nitrogen budget, in particular, the role of the photolysis of particulate nitrate, is needed for future model developments. Moreover, the results suggest that the remaining underestimation of OA in the model is associated with the underrepresented production of SOA.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2019

Potential Improvements in Global Carbon Flux Estimates from a Network of Laser Heterodyne Radiometer Measurements of Column Carbon Dioxide

We present observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to evaluate the impact of a proposed network of ground-based miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) instruments that measure atmospheric column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) with a 1 ppm precision. A particular strength of this passive measurement approach is its insensitivity to clouds and aerosols due to its direct sun pointing and narrow field of view (0.2°). Developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), these portable, low-cost mini-LHR instruments were designed to operate in tandem with the sun photometers used by the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). This partnership allows us to leverage the existing framework of AERONET's global ground network of more than 500 sites as well as providing simultaneous measurements of aerosols that are known to be a major source of error in retrievals of XCO2 from passive nadir-viewing satellite observations. We show, using the global 3-D GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, that a deployment of 50 mini-LHRs at strategic (but not optimized) AERONET sites significantly improves our knowledge of global and regional land-based CO2 fluxes. This improvement varies seasonally and ranges 58%–81% over southern lands, 47%–76% over tropical lands, 71%–92% over northern lands, and 64%–91% globally. We also show significant added value from combining mini-LHR instruments with the existing ground-based NOAA flask network. Collectively, these data result in improved a posteriori CO2 flux estimates on spatial scales of ∼10 km2, especially over North America and Europe, where the ground-based networks are densest. Our studies suggest that the mini-LHR network could also play a substantive role in reducing carbon flux uncertainty in Arctic and tropical systems by filling in geographical gaps in measurements left by ground-based networks and space-based observations. A realized network would also provide necessary data for the quinquennial global stock takes that form part of the Paris Agreement.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Production of Peroxy Nitrates in Boreal Biomass Burning Plumes over Canada During the BORTAS Campaign

The observations collected during the BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS) campaign in summer 2011 over Canada are analysed to study the impact of forest fire emissions on the formation of ozone (O3 and total peroxy nitrates (sigma)PNs, (sigma)ROONO2. The suite of measurements on board the BAe-146 aircraft, deployed in this campaign, allows us to calculate the production of O3 and of (sigma)PNs, a long-lived NOx reservoir whose concentration is supposed to be impacted by biomass burning emissions.In fire plumes, profiles of carbon monoxide (CO), which is a well-established tracer of pyrogenic emission, show concentration enhancements that are in strong correspondence with a significant increase of concentrations of (sigma)PNs, where as minimal increase of the concentrations of O3 and NO2 is observed. The (sigma)PN and O3 productions have been calculated using the rate constants of the first- and second-order react Pions of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation. The (sigma)PN and O3 productions have also been quantified by 0-D model simulation based on the Master Chemical Mechanism. Both methods show that in fire plumes the average production of (sigma)PNs and O3 are greater than in the background plumes, but the increase of (sigma)PN production is more pronounced than the O3 production. The average (sigma)PN production in fire plumes is from 7 to 12 times greater than in the background, whereas the average O3 production in fire plumes is from 2 to 5 times greater than in the background. These results suggest that, at least for boreal forest fires and for the measurements recorded during the BORTAS campaign,fire emissions impact both the oxidized NOy and O3;but (1)(sigma)PN production is amplified significantly more thanO3 production and (2) in the forest fire plumes the ratio between the O3 production and the (sigma)PN production is lower than the ratio evaluated in the background air masses, thus confirming that the role played by the (sigma)PNs produced during biomass burning is significant in the O3 budget. The implication of these observations is that fire emissions in some cases, for example boreal forest fires and in the conditions reported here, may influence more long-lived precursors of O3than short-lived pollutants, which in turn can be transported and eventually diluted in a wide area.

biomass burning↗

NASA NTRS2013

Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

periodic variations↗

NASA NTRS2013

Quantifying the Impact of BOReal Forest Fires on Tropospheric Oxidants Over the Atlantic Using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS) Experiment: Design, Execution, and Science Overview

We describe the design and execution of the BORTAS (Quantifying the impact of BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants using Aircraft and Satellites) experiment, which has the overarching objective of understanding the chemical aging of airmasses that contain the emission products from seasonal boreal wildfires and how these airmasses subsequently impact downwind atmospheric composition. The central focus of the experiment was a two-week deployment of the UK BAe-146-301 Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) over eastern Canada. The planned July 2010 deployment of the ARA was postponed by 12 months because of activities related to the dispersal of material emitted by the Eyjafjallaj¨okull volcano. However, most other planned model and measurement activities, including ground-based measurements at the Dalhousie University Ground Station (DGS), enhanced ozonesonde launches, and measurements at the Pico Atmospheric Observatory in the Azores, went ahead and constituted phase A of the experiment. Phase B of BORTAS in July 2011 included the same measurements, but included the ARA, special satellite observations and a more comprehensive measurement suite at the DGS. Integrating these data helped us to describe pyrogenic plumes from wildfires on a wide spectrum of temporal and spatial scales. We interpret these data using a range of chemistry models, from a near-explicit gas-phase chemical mechanism to regional and global models of atmospheric transport and lumped chemistry. We also present an overview of some of the new science that has originated from this project.

BORTAS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Quantifying the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of North American Isoprene Emissions Using Satellite Observations of the Formaldehyde Column

Quantifying isoprene emissions using satellite observations of the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns is subject to errors involving the column retrieval and the assumed relationship between HCHO columns and isoprene emissions, taken here from the GEOS-CHEM chemical transport model. Here we use a 6-year (1996-2001) HCHO column data set from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument to (1) quantify these errors, (2) evaluate GOME-derived isoprene emissions with in situ flux measurements and a process-based emission inventory (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN), and (3) investigate the factors driving the seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions. The error in the GOME HCHO column retrieval is estimated to be 40%. We use the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) to quantify the time-dependent HCHO production from isoprene, alpha- and beta-pinenes, and methylbutenol and show that only emissions of isoprene are detectable by GOME. The time-dependent HCHO yield from isoprene oxidation calculated by MCM is 20-30% larger than in GEOS-CHEM. GOME-derived isoprene fluxes track the observed seasonal variation of in situ measurements at a Michigan forest site with a -30% bias. The seasonal variation of North American isoprene emissions during 2001 inferred from GOME is similar to MEGAN, with GOME emissions typically 25% higher (lower) at the beginning (end) of the growing season. GOME and MEGAN both show a maximum over the southeastern United States, but they differ in the precise location. The observed interannual variability of this maximum is 20-30%, depending on month. The MEGAN isoprene emission dependence on surface air temperature explains 75% of the month-to-month variability in GOME-derived isoprene emissions over the southeastern United States during May-September 1996-2001.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using CO2:CO Correlations to Improve Inverse Analyses of Carbon Fluxes

Observed correlations between atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CO represent potentially powerful information for improving CO2 surface flux estimates through coupled CO2-CO inverse analyses. We explore the value of these correlations in improving estimates of regional CO2 fluxes in east Asia by using aircraft observations of CO2 and CO from the TRACE-P campaign over the NW Pacific in March 2001. Our inverse model uses regional CO2 and CO surface fluxes as the state vector, separating biospheric and combustion contributions to CO2. CO2-CO error correlation coefficients are included in the inversion as off-diagonal entries in the a priori and observation error covariance matrices. We derive error correlations in a priori combustion source estimates of CO2 and CO by propagating error estimates of fuel consumption rates and emission factors. However, we find that these correlations are weak because CO source uncertainties are mostly determined by emission factors. Observed correlations between atmospheric CO2 and CO concentrations imply corresponding error correlations in the chemical transport model used as the forward model for the inversion. These error correlations in excess of 0.7, as derived from the TRACE-P data, enable a coupled CO2-CO inversion to achieve significant improvement over a CO2-only inversion for quantifying regional fluxes of CO2.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS2006

First Directly Retrieved Global Distribution of Tropospheric Column Ozone from GOME: Comparison with the GEOS-CHEM Model

We present the first directly retrieved global distribution of tropospheric column ozone from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) ultraviolet measurements during December 1996 to November 1997. The retrievals clearly show signals due to convection, biomass burning, stratospheric influence, pollution, and transport. They are capable of capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of tropospheric column ozone in response to regional or short time-scale events such as the 1997-1998 El Nino event and a 10-20 DU change within a few days. The global distribution of tropospheric column ozone displays the well-known wave-1 pattern in the tropics, nearly zonal bands of enhanced tropospheric column ozone of 36-48 DU at 20degS-30degS during the austral spring and at 25degN-45degN during the boreal spring and summer, low tropospheric column ozone of <30 DU uniformly distributed south of 35 S during all seasons, and relatively high tropospheric column ozone of >33 DU at some northern high-latitudes during the spring. Simulation from a chemical transport model corroborates most of the above structures, with small biases of <+/-5 DU and consistent seasonal cycles in most regions, especially in the southern hemisphere. However, significant positive biases of 5-20 DU occur in some northern tropical and subtropical regions such as the Middle East during summer. Comparison of GOME with monthly-averaged Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus in-service Aircraft (MOZAIC) tropospheric column ozone for these regions usually shows good consistency within 1 a standard deviations and retrieval uncertainties. Some biases can be accounted for by inadequate sensitivity to lower tropospheric ozone, the different spatiotemporal sampling and the spatiotemporal variations in tropospheric column ozone.

Liu, Xiong↗

NASA NTRS2004

Air Mass Factor Formulation for Spectroscopic Measurements from Satellites: Application to Formaldehyde Retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment

We present a new formulation for the air mass factor (AMF) to convert slant column measurements of optically thin atmospheric species from space into total vertical columns. Because of atmospheric scattering, the AMF depends on the vertical distribution of the species. We formulate the AMF as the integral of the relative vertical distribution (shape factor) of the species over the depth of the atmosphere, weighted by altitude-dependent coefficients (scattering weights) computed independently from a radiative transfer model. The scattering weights are readily tabulated, and one can then obtain the AMF for any observation scene by using shape factors from a three dimensional (3-D) atmospheric chemistry model for the period of observation. This approach subsequently allows objective evaluation of the 3-D model with the observed vertical columns, since the shape factor and the vertical column in the model represent two independent pieces of information. We demonstrate the AMF method by using slant column measurements of formaldehyde at 346 nm from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment satellite instrument over North America during July 1996. Shape factors are cumputed with the Global Earth Observing System CHEMistry (GEOS-CHEM) global 3-D model and are checked for consistency with the few available aircraft measurements. Scattering weights increase by an order of magnitude from the surface to the upper troposphere. The AMFs are typically 20-40% less over continents than over the oceans and are approximately half the values calculated in the absence of scattering. Model-induced errors in the AMF are estimated to be approximately 10%. The GEOS-CHEM model captures 50% and 60% of the variances in the observed slant and vertical columns, respectively. Comparison of the simulated and observed vertical columns allows assessment of model bias.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Mapping Isoprene Emissions over North America using Formaldehyde Column Observations from Space

I] We present a methodology for deriving emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) using space-based column observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) and apply it to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument over North America during July 1996. The HCHO column is related to local VOC emissions, with a spatial smearing that increases with the VOC lifetime. lsoprene is the dominant HCHO precursor over North America in summer, and its lifetime (approx. = 1 hour) is sufficiently short that the smearing can be neglected. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) to derive the relationship between isoprene emissions and HCHO columns over North America and use these relationships to convert the GOME HCHO columns to isoprene emissions. We also use the GEOS-CHEM model as an intermediary to validate the GOME HCHO column measurements by comparison with in situ observations. The GEOS-CHEM model including the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) isoprene emission inventory provides a good simulation of both the GOME data (r(sup 2) = 0.69, n = 756, bias = +l1 %) and the in situ summertime HCHO measurements over North America (r(sup 2) = 0.47, n = 10, bias = -3%). The GOME observations show high values over regions of known high isoprene emissions and a day-to-day variability that is consistent with the temperature dependence of isoprene emission. Isoprene emissions inferred from the GOME data are 20% less than GEIA on average over North America and twice those from the U S . EPA Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS2) inventory. The GOME isoprene inventory when implemented in the GEOS-CHEM model provides a better simulation of the HCHO in situ measurements thaneitherGEIAorBEIS2 (r(sup 2) = 0.71,n= 10, bias = -10 %).

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Eastern Asian Emissions of Anthropogenic Halocarbons Deduced from Aircraft Concentration Data

The Montreal Protocol restricts production of ozone-depleting halocarbons worldwide. Enforcement of the protocol has relied mainly on annual government statistics of production and consumption of these compounds (bottom-up approach). We show here that aircraft observations of ha1ocarbon:CO enhancement ratios on regional to continental scales can be used to infer halocarbon emissions, providing independent verification of the bottom-up approach. We apply this topdown approach to aircraft observations of Asian outflow &om the TRACE-P mission over the western Pacific (March-April 2001) and derive emissions from eastern Asia (China, Japan, and Korea). We derive an eastern Asian carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) source of 21.5 Gg yr(sup -1), several-fold larger than previous estimates and amounting to -30% of the global budget for this gas. Our emission estimate for CFC-11 from eastern Asia is 50% higher than inventories derived from manufacturing records. Our emission estimates for methyl chloroform (CH3CC13) and CFC-12 are in agreement with existing inventories. For halon 1211 we find only a strong local source originating from the Shanghai area. Our emission estimates for the above gases result in a approximately equal to 40% increase in the ozone depletion potential (ODP) of Asian emissions relative to previous estimates, corresponding to a approximately equal to 10% global increase in ODP.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS2002

An Improved Retrieval of Tropospheric Nitrogen Dioxide from GOME

We present a retrieval of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument that improves in several ways over previous retrievals, especially in the accounting of Rayleigh and cloud scattering. Slant columns, which are directly fitted without low-pass filtering or spectral smoothing, are corrected for an artificial offset likely induced by spectral structure on the diffuser plate of the GOME instrument. The stratospheric column is determined from NO2 columns over the remote Pacific Ocean to minimize contamination from tropospheric NO2. The air mass factor (AMF) used to convert slant columns to vertical columns is calculated from the integral of the relative vertical NO2 distribution from a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological data (Global Earth Observing System (GEOS)-CHEM), weighted by altitude dependent scattering weights computed with a radiative transfer model (Linearized Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer), using local surface albedos determined from GOME observations at NO2 wavelengths. The AMF calculation accounts for cloud scattering using cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, and cloud optical thickness from a cloud retrieval algorithm (GOME Cloud Retrieval Algorithm). Over continental regions with high surface emissions, clouds decrease the AMT by 20- 30% relative to clear sky. GOME is almost twice as sensitive to tropospheric NO2 columns over ocean than over land. Comparison of the retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns for July 1996 with GEOS-CHEM values tests both the retrieval and the nitrogen oxide radical (NOx) emissions inventories used in GEOS-CHEM. Retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns over the United States, where NOx emissions are particularly well known, are within 18% of GEOS-CHEM columns and are strongly spatially correlated (r = 0.78, n = 288, p less than 0.005). Retrieved columns show more NO2 than GEOS-CHEM columns over the Transvaal region of South Africa and industrial regions of the northeast United States and Europe. They are lower over Houston, India, eastern Asia, and the biomass burning region of central Africa, possibly because of biases from absorbing aerosols.

Martin, Randall V.↗