Extraordinary Tibetan Plateau early-winter heating drove record-breaking winter precipitation in California and adjacent regions
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Environmental sciences↗
Engineering topics
Pan, Yan
Publications and source records attributed to Pan, Yan.
GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources
The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment
Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment
The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Power system load flexibility forecasting
The example embodiments are directed to a system and method for forecasting load flexibility of a power grid. In one example, the method includes receiving temperature values associated with temperature set points of a plurality of loads that are included on a power grid, forecasting a flexibility of the plurality of loads using a polynomial-time mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) optimization based on the received temperature values for the plurality of loads, and outputting information about the forecasted flexibility for display to a display device. The MINLP optimization performs the forecasting of the load flexibility on a fine-grained basis in comparison to conventional methods and is still fast enough that it can be computed in real-time.
Genc, Sahika↗
Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)/Global Atmospheric System Study (GASS) has launched a new initiative called “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) as the first international grass-roots effort to introduce spring land surface temperature (LST)/subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies over high mountain areas as a crucial factor that can lead to significant improvement in precipitation prediction through the remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. LS4P focuses on process understanding and predictability, and hence it is different from, and complements, other international projects that focus on the operational S2S prediction. More than 40 groups worldwide have participated in this effort, including 21 Earth system models, 9 regional climate models, and 7 data groups.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Method and system for providing flexible reserve power for power grid
An optimization-based method and system is disclosed to enable heterogeneous loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in grid ancillary services, such as spinning and non-spinning reserves, and ramping reserves. The method includes receiving inputs for decision parameters for optimizing an objective for obtaining flexible reserve power, solving the objective for obtaining flexible reserve power, determining a reserve power schedule for a prediction horizon for providing flexible reserve power based on the objective, generating a service bid based on the reserve power schedule for the power grid; and when the service bid is accepted, providing flexible reserve power to the power grid based on the service bid.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
MicroRNA-425 facilitates pathogenic Th17 cell differentiation by targeting forkhead box O1 (Foxo1) and is associated with inflammatory bowel disease
Highlights: • MiR-425 expression is significantly increased in patients with IBD. • MiR-425 promotes pathogenic Th17 cell differentiation. • Foxo1 is a novel target of miR-425. • In vivo inhibition of miR-425 alleviates TNBS-induced colitis in mice. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic autoimmune disease, and its pathogenesis remains mostly unknown. MicroRNAs (miRs) has drawn much attention as a crucial regulator of autoimmune diseases. In this study, we demonstrated, for the first time, that miR-425 was significantly up-regulated in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and mucosa of patients with IBD. In note, T helper (Th) 17 cells were found to be the major source of miR-425 expression. Using gain-of-function approaches, we demonstrated that miR-425 could facilitate the differentiation of CD4{sup +} T cells into Th17 lineage. In addition, forkhead box O1 (Foxo1) was identified as a novel target gene of miR-425, which was able to inhibit Th17 cell differentiation, and it was observed to be markedly decreased in PBMC and mucosa of patients with IBD. Notably, in vivo inhibition of miR-425 significantly alleviated the disease severity of TNBS-induced colitis in mice, with down-regulated levels of IL-17A. Our data reveal a novel mechanism in which the elevated miR-425 in IBD mediates pathogenic Th17 cell generation through down-regulation of Foxo1. In vivo blockade of miR-425 may serve as a novel therapeutic approach in the treatment of IBD.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
A parallel orbital-updating based plane-wave basis method for electronic structure calculations
Highlights: • Propose three parallel orbital-updating based plane-wave basis methods for electronic structure calculations. • These new methods can avoid the generating of large scale eigenvalue problems and then reduce the computational cost. • These new methods allow for two-level parallelization which is particularly interesting for large scale parallelization. • Numerical experiments show that these new methods are reliable and efficient for large scale calculations on modern supercomputers. - Abstract: Motivated by the recently proposed parallel orbital-updating approach in real space method , we propose a parallel orbital-updating based plane-wave basis method for electronic structure calculations, for solving the corresponding eigenvalue problems. In addition, we propose two new modified parallel orbital-updating methods. Compared to the traditional plane-wave methods, our methods allow for two-level parallelization, which is particularly interesting for large scale parallelization. Numerical experiments show that these new methods are more reliable and efficient for large scale calculations on modern supercomputers.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Model Reduction for Fast Assessment of Grid Impact of High Penetration PV
A key challenge in properly analyzing the impact of solar photovoltaics (PV) during planning, interconnection and operation in the distribution grid is computational complexity. Such studies require the use of Quasi-Steady-Time-Series (QSTS) power flow to capture the complex interaction of PV with voltage regulating equipment and protection devices and a large number of scenario studies are needed to capture location specific constraints and uncertainties. In addition, a typical distribution feeder can have thousands of nodes and there can be thousands of such feeders in a given utility system. To solve this problem, a new and systematic method for distribution network reduction is proposed. The objective is to reduce the size of distribution systems by more than 80% while preserving the accuracy of power flow results. To this end, an extended Ward-equivalent method has been proposed to create an equivalent circuit. Moreover, load and PV aggregation based on the backward sweep method has been developed to further simplify the feeder. The proposed method is tested with a modified IEEE 123-node distribution test system. The simulation results demonstrate the high efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach for distribution network reduction.
reduced order systems, load flow, load modeling, v↗
Hybrid Direct-Current Circuit Breaker
A circuit breaking system includes a first branch including at least one solid-state snubber; a second branch coupled in parallel to the first branch and including a superconductor and a cryogenic contactor coupled in series; and a controller operatively coupled to the at least one solid-state snubber and the cryogenic contactor and programmed to, when a fault occurs in the load circuit, activate the at least one solid-state snubber for migrating flow of the electrical current from the second branch to the first branch, and, when the fault is cleared in the load circuit, activate the cryogenic contactor for migrating the flow of the electrical current from the first branch to the second branch.
Wang, Ruxi↗
Architecture, Voltage, and Components for a Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion Electric Grid (AVC-TeDP)
The purpose of this effort was to advance the selection, characterization, and modeling of a propulsion electric grid for a Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion (TeDP) system for transport aircraft. The TeDP aircraft would constitute a miniature electric grid with 50 MW or more of total power, two or more generators, redundant transmission lines, and multiple electric motors driving propulsion fans. The study proposed power system architectures, investigated electromechanical and solid state circuit breakers, estimated the impact of the system voltage on system mass, and recommended DC bus voltage range. The study assumed an all cryogenic power system. Detailed assumptions within the study include hybrid circuit breakers, a two cryogen system, and supercritical cyrogens. A dynamic model was developed to investigate control and parameter selection.
power↗
Long-term low-dose α-particle enhanced the potential of malignant transformation in human bronchial epithelial cells through MAPK/Akt pathway
Highlights: • Multi-exposures of 25 mGy α-ray enhanced cell proliferation, adhesion, and invasion. • MAPK/Akt but not JNK/P66 was positively correlated with cell invasive phenotypes. • LDR of α-irradiation triggers cell malignant transformation through MAPK/Akt. - Abstract: Since the wide usage of ionizing radiation, the cancer risk of low dose radiation (LDR) (<0.1 Gy) has become attractive for a long time. However, most results are derived from epidemiologic studies on atomic-bomb survivors and nuclear accidents surrounding population, and the molecular mechanism of this risk is elusive. To explore the potential of a long-term LDR-induced malignant transformation, human bronchial epithelial cells Beas-2B were fractionally irradiated with 0.025 Gy α-particles for 8 times in total and then further cultured for 1–2 months. It was found that the cell proliferation, the abilities of adhesion and invasion, and the protein expressions of p-ERK, p-Akt, especially p-P38 were not only increased in the multiply-irradiated cells but also in their offspring 1–2 months after the final exposure, indicating high potentiality of cell malignant transformation. On opposite, the expressions of p-JNK and p-P66 were diminished in the subcultures of irradiated cells and thus may play a role of negative regulation in canceration. When the cells were transferred with p38 siRNA, the LDR-induced enhancements of cell adhesion and invasion were significantly reduced. These findings suggest that long-term LDR of α-particles could enhance the potential of malignant transformation incidence in human bronchial epithelial cells through MAPK/Akt pathway.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
System and method for leveraging human physiological traits to control microprocessor frequency
A system and method for leveraging physiological traits to control microprocessor frequency are disclosed. In some embodiments, the system and method may optimize, for example, a particular processor-based architecture based on, for example, end user satisfaction. In some embodiments, the system and method may determine, for example, whether their users are satisfied to provide higher efficiency, improved reliability, reduced power consumption, increased security, and a better user experience. The system and method may use, for example, biometric input devices to provide information about a user's physiological traits to a computer system. Biometric input devices may include, for example, one or more of the following: an eye tracker, a galvanic skin response sensor, and/or a force sensor.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗