Engineering topics

Paolino, D. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Paolino, D. A..

3 records

NASA NTRS1988

A predictive monsoon signal in the surface level thermal field over India

The mean monthly surface thermal field over India during the premonsoon months March-May, based on mean monthly-temperature/minimum-temperature/maximum-temperature data from the network of 119 stations, was examined with the objective of locating significant predictor parameters for forecasting Indian monsoon rainfall. The results of linear correlation analysis bring out three areas for which the relationships between Indian monsoon rainfalls and the area average of mean monthly minimum temperature for April or for May were found to be significant. The best correlation was found for the southern peninsular area, where the mean May minimum temperature is significantly related to the 500 mB April ridge, a tendency in the Southern Oscillation Index, and a tendency in eastern equatorial Pacific SST.

Mooley, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Interannual variability of Indian monsoon rainfall

The interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon and its relationships with other atmospheric fluctuations were studied in hopes of gaining some insight into the predicability of the rainfall. Rainfall data for 31 meteorological subdivisions over India were provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Fifty-three years of seasonal mean anomaly sea-level pressure (SLP) fields were used to determine if any relationships could be detected between fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere surface pressure and Indian monsoon rainfall. Three month running mean sea-level pressure anomalies at Darwin (close to one of the centers of the Southern Oscillation) were compiled for months preceding and following extreme years for rainfall averaged over all of India. Anomalies are small before the monsoon, but are quite large in months following the summer season. However, there is a large decrease in Darwin pressure for months preceding a heavy monsoon, while a deficient monsoon is preceded by a sharp increase in Darwin pressure. If a time series is constructed of the tendency of Darwin SLP between the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) and a correlation coefficient is computed between it and 81 years of rainfall average over all of India, one gets a C. C. of -.46, which is higher than any other previously computed predictor of the monsoon rainfall. This relationship can also be used to make a qualitative forecast for rainfall over the whole of India by considering the sign of the tendency in extreme monsoon years.

Paolino, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The southern oscillation and long-range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Darwin pressure anomalies are examined for the 81-year period 1901-81. It is found that the tendency of the Darwin pressure anomaly before the monsoon season is a good indicator of the monsoon rainfall anomaly. During the 81-year period, there were only two instances (1901, 1941) when a negative tendency of winter (December, January, February) to spring (March, April, May) Darwin pressure anomaly was followed by a monsoon rainfall anomaly of less than minus one standard deviation; and only three instances (1916, 1933, 1961) when a positive tendency was followed by a rainfall anomaly of more than one standard deviation. Therefore, if the Darwin pressure anomaly during March, April and May is below normal, and if the Darwin seasonal pressure anomaly has been falling, a non-occurrence of drought over India can be predicted with a very high degree of confidence. Similarly, above normal Darwin pressure during March, April and May, and increasing seasonal pressure anomaly is a good indicator of the non-occurrence of very heavy rain over India.

Shukla, J.↗