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Patel, Pralit

Publications and source records attributed to Patel, Pralit.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25–80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5–5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO 2 /kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the future of global energy-for-water

This study incorporates the energy demands of water abstraction, treatment, distribution, and post-use (wastewater) treatment into the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated human-Earth systems model, and analyzes a range of scenarios that estimate the future evolution of this demand of energy. The study builds on prior research on the historical demands of energy-for-water, fitting these demands of energy into existing nation-level energy balances, where demands for energy-for-water have heretofore been aggregated with other energy use in the commercial and public services, industrial, agricultural, and/or electric power sectors. This development allows for improved projections of future energy demands in general, and in this study, allows for assessment of the energy implications of different scenarios of improvements in water access and water quality that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. In our baseline scenario, energy-for-water approximately doubles from 2010 to 2050, and in the scenario with the greatest level of water access, standards for treatment of wastewater, and irrigation expansion, the consequent energy-for-water demands increase three-fold from 2010 to 2050. Note also that these increases do not consider future scarcity-driven increases in energy requirements per unit of water abstraction, treatment, and distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

Agriculture yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally (via international commodity markets). How important to U.S. agriculture are domestic changes due to climate compared to those occurring externally? Here we show that potential direct impacts to United States agriculture have financial impacts on U.S. producers that are roughly similar in magnitude but opposite in sign to impacts on U.S. producers due to changes in other parts of the world. This finding is robust across application of a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts applied to a multi-sector global integrated assessment model. Therefore, when examining country-specific impacts, it is necessary to model both the domestic and international impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future

Scenarios for meeting ambitious climate targets rely on large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs), including direct air capture (DAC). However, the tradeoffs between food, water and energy created by deploying different NETs are unclear. Here we show that DAC could provide up to 3 GtCO 2 yr -1 of negative emissions by 2035—equivalent to 7% of 2019 global CO 2 emissions—based on current-day assumptions regarding price and performance. DAC in particular could exacerbate demand for energy and water, yet it would avoid the most severe market-mediated effects of land-use competition from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation. This could result in staple food crop prices rising by approximately fivefold relative to 2010 levels in many parts of the Global South, raising equity concerns about the deployment of NETs. Overall, these results highlight that delays in aggressive global mitigation action greatly increase the requirement for DAC to meet climate targets, and correspondingly, energy and water impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals

A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 °C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 °C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2019

gcamdata: An R Package for Preparation, Synthesis, and Tracking of Input Data for the GCAM Integrated Human-Earth Systems Model

The increasing data requirements of complex models demand robust, reproducible, and transparent systems to track and prepare models’ inputs. Here we describe version 1.0 of the gcamdata R package that processes raw inputs to produce the hundreds of XML files needed by the GCAM integrated human-earth systems model. It features extensive functional and unit testing, data tracing and visualization, and enforces metadata, documentation, and flexibility in its component data-processing subunits. Although this package is specific to GCAM, many of its structural pieces and approaches should be broadly applicable to, and reusable by, other complex model/data systems aiming to improve transparency, reproducibility, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems

This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions. This paper describes the model, including its assumptions, inputs, and outputs. We then use 11 scenarios, varying the socioeconomic and climate policy assumptions, to illustrate the results from the model. The resulting scenarios demonstrate a wide range of potential future energy, water, and land uses. We compare the results from GCAM v5.1 to historical data and to future scenario simulations from earlier versions of GCAM and from other models. Finally, we provide information on how to obtain the model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were created without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; so, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This report has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs, and then applied the resulting scenarios to an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to permit analysis of future water demand in a water-constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water-efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario-by-scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3560 km3 to 6600 km3. The results show that, 1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios; 2) the most sustainable scenario produces end-of-century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values; 3) low-income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivity to highly-efficient water technologies; and 4) non-water sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

CERF – A Geospatial Model for Assessing Future Energy Production Technology Expansion Feasibility

Electricity system expansion planning faces significant challenges not only because of commonly modeled uncertainties such as future demand growth, fuel prices, and technology cost and performance, but also because of challenges such as climate change and carbon policies that can affect supply and demand. Changes in energy technology, natural resource availability, and population migration and growth will affect the feasibility of power plant siting, potentially hindering the achievement of policy goals. New modeling approaches are needed that couple future projections of energy system expansion with “on the ground” feasibility modeling—where both are informed by a consistent set of assumptions about future climate trends, resource availability, climate policy, socioeconomics, and environmental regulations. This research describes the development and evaluation of the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model, a geospatial tool for scenario analysis of electricity system expansions.

grid expansion, water-energy nexus, power plant si↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cost of power or power of cost: A U.S. modeling perspective

Future scenarios and assessment studies used to prepare for long-term energy transitions and develop robust strategies to address climate change are highly dependent on the assessment of technology characteristics and availability. The electric power sector in the United States recently experienced a significant cost escalation: e.g. construction costs for large plants such as nuclear and coal-fired power plants doubled between 2003 and 2007. In this work, we assess the main drivers of this escalation. While many factors have affected costs, some of the most significant include cost of materials, particularly the price of metals and to a lesser extent cement, possible increases in labor quantity requirements, the aggressive worldwide competition for power plant design and construction resources, driven by high demand in Asia, regulatory tightening, and general uncertainty about future regulations and climate policies. We recalibrate power sector technology costs in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) based on an extensive literature review of recent (post-2010) studies and in the process develop a coherent and updated set of current cost and performance assumptions for all major electricity-generating technologies. While current cost and performance assumptions of electricity-generating technologies are key drivers of short-term technology deployment and technology mix in the electricity sector, medium- and long-term deployment pathways are significantly affected by assumed efficiency improvement rates and cost reductions. Furthermore, we develop and demonstrate a method to forecast efficiency and construction cost of power plants and a sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of such assumptions in future scenarios generated by GCAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Consumptive Water Use from Electricity Generation in the Southwest under Alternative Climate, Technology, and Policy Futures

This research assesses climate, technological, and policy impacts on consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest over a planning horizon of nearly a century. We employed an integrated modeling framework taking into account feedbacks between climate change, air temperature and humidity, and consequent power plant water requirements. These direct impacts of climate change on water consumption by 2095 differ with technology improvements, cooling systems, and policy constraints, ranging from a 3–7% increase over scenarios that do not incorporate ambient air impacts. Upon additional factors being changed that alter electricity generation, water consumption increases by up to 8% over the reference scenario by 2095. With high penetration of wet recirculating cooling, consumptive water required for low-carbon electricity generation via fossil fuels will likely exacerbate regional water pressure as droughts become more common and population increases. Adaptation strategies to lower water use include the use of advanced cooling technologies and greater dependence on solar and wind. Water consumption may be reduced by 50% in 2095 from the reference, requiring an increase in dry cooling shares to 35–40%. Alternatively, the same reduction could be achieved through photovoltaic and wind power generation constituting 60% of the grid, consistent with an increase of over 250% in technology learning rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗