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Paul Withers

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Withers.

Stellar Occultation Observations to Constrain the Stratosphere of Uranus for Aerocapture

Background on Uranus: Voyager 2 (V2) UV stellar and solar occultations at Uranus detected a warm stratosphere and extremely hot thermosphere [1, 2], far in excess of solar irradiance [3, 4] and internal heating [5, 6]. New theories to explain similar heating at Jupiter [7] and Saturn [8] cannot be tested at Uranus due to a dearth of reliable measurements. In [9, 10], we reprocessed 26 archival Earth-based stellar occultations by Uranus (1977-1996), finding stratospheric temperatures (~200 K) warmer than the original (~100 K), but in stark tension with V2 (~300-500 K). In [10], we built a physics-based, 1-D atmospheric model (see Fig 1) that finds a nearly isothermal stratosphere and a dynamic heat sink in the lower thermosphere. Aerocapture: Aerocapture is spacecraft maneuver that uses a single deep dip to enter orbit. It could decrease cruise time and launch mass for a Uranus mission, but the greatest impediment is uncertain stratospheric densities of Uranus [11]. Aims: 1) Observe and process many high S/N Uranus stellar occultations in the next decade; 2) constrain stratospheric densities for aerocapture; 3) better understand the energy balance; 4) determine stratospheric changes since 1996. Upcoming Occultations: We will present our observing plan for the 2025 April Uranus occultation (K mag 8) and discuss the best-in-a-century 2031 event (K mag 4). We will discuss other events in the early 2030s [12] [13], predicted constraints on density, and simulations of aerocapture for UOP. We will discuss the Shadow Chaser, a small satellite concept for observing occultations from Earth orbit [12]. Conclusions: New stellar occultations can vastly improve profiles of the stratosphere of Uranus; this is critical for understanding energy circulation and constraining densities for using aerocapture on UOP. References: [1] Herbert, F. et al. (1987). JGR. [2] Stevens, M. et al. (1993). Icarus. [3] Marley, M. & McKay, C. (1999). Icarus, [4] Li, C. et al. (2018). JQRST. [5] Pearl, J. et al. (1990). Icarus. [6] Melin, H (2020). Nat Astron. [7] O’Donoghue, J. et al. (2021) Nature. [8] Mueller-Wodarg, I. et al. (2019) GRL. [9] Saunders, W. et al. (2023). PSJ. [10] Saunders, W. et al. (2024). PSJ. [11] Report of the Aerocapture Demonstration Relevance Assessment Team (2023). [12] Saunders, W. et al. (2022). P&SS. [13] French, R. & Souami, D. (2023) PSJ.

William Saunders↗

A theoretical assessment of the feasibility of potential Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter radio occultation observations of the lunar ionosphere

The existence of a “dense” lunar ionosphere has been controversial for decades. Positive ions produced from the lunar surface and exosphere are inferred to have densities that are.106– 107m−3near the surface and smaller at higher altitudes, yet electron densities derived from radio occultation measurements occasionally exceed these values by orders of magnitude. For example, about 4% of the single-spacecraft radio occultation measurements from Kaguya/SELENE were consistent with peak electron densities of∼3×108m−3. Space plasmas should be neutral on macroscopic scales, so this represents a substantial discrepancy. Additional observations of electron densities in the lunar ionosphere are critical to resolving this long standing paradox. Here we theoretically assess whether radio occultation observations using two-way coherent S-band radio signals from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) spacecraft could provide useful measurements of electron densities in the lunar ionosphere. We predict the uncertainty in a single LRO radio occultation measurement of electron density to be∼3×108m−3, comparable to occasional observations by Kaguya/SELENE of a dense lunar ionosphere. Thus an individual profile from LRO is unlikely to reliably detect the lunar ionosphere; however, averages of multiple (∼10) LRO profiles acquired under similar geophysical and viewing conditions should be able to make reliable detections. An observing rate of six ingress occultations per day (∼2000 per year) could be achieved with mini-mal impact on current LRO operations. This rate compares favorably with the 378observations reported from the single-spacecraft experiment on Kaguya/SELENE between November 2007 and June 2009. The large number of observations possible for LRO would be sufficient to permit wide-ranging investigations of spatial and temporal variations in the poorly understood lunar ionosphere. These findings strengthen efforts to conduct such observations with LRO.

Paul Withers↗

Shadow Chaser: A SmallSat Mission Concept to Characterize Upper Atmosphere of Uranus through Stellar Occultation Technique from Earth Orbit

Science Goals and Objectives: The Shadow Chaser SmallSat mission concept will measure the middle and upper atmospheric temperature and density of Uranus and Neptune through stellar occultation (SO) technique from Earth orbit. By achieving its scientific objectives, the mission will address the Decadal Survey Priority Question “Q7. Giant planet structure and evolution: What processes influence the structure, evolution, and dynamics of giant planet interiors, atmospheres, and magnetospheres?”

Kunio M Sayanagi↗

Shadow Chaser: a SmallSat Mission Concept to Measure the Upper Atmosphere of Uranus from Earth Orbit, and Enabling Aerocapture Orbit Insertion Benefits for Uranus Orbiter and Probe

We present the latest design of the Shadow Chaser mission concept that will measure the upper atmosphere of Uranus from Earth orbit using the stellar occultation technique. Upcoming stellar occultations by Uranus represent valuable opportunities to prepare for a potential aerocapture orbit insertion to be incorporated in the Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) Flagship mission, the highest-priority new mission recommended by the 2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. An aerocapture maneuver enables faster interplanetary trajectories that do not depend on Jupiter gravity assist, and offer annual launch windows for UOP. However, an aerocapture maneuver’s precision depends on a-priori knowledge of the upper atmosphere, which today primarily comes from the highly uncertain Voyager 2 stellar occultations recently shown to be inconsistent with ground-based occultation measurements during the same era. To improve upper atmospheric characterization, the Shadow Chaser will observe the occultations by Uranus on February 15, 2031, October 9, 2031 and February 6, 2032 from Earth orbit. Together with the occultation on April 8, 2025 (which we are planning to observe from the ground), these events represent the best opportunities to characterize the Uranian upper atmosphere before UOP arrival. We present the Shadow Chaser’s latest spacecraft and measurement design. We will also present results of analyses funded by NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate to establish the viability of aerocapture for UOP, quantify the benefits of reducing Uranian upper atmospheric uncertainties to improve the aerocapture design, and demonstrate that anticipated new stellar occultation data can be incorporated into the engineering design of aerocapture.

Uranus↗