Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Pazdernik, Karl.
The code takes expert-labeled segmented images of irradiated and unirradiated pellets and trains DeepConvolutional Neural Networks to segment these images into defects, backgrounds, and boundaries. The code calculated qualitative microstructural information from these segmented images to facilitate the comparison of unirradiated and irradiated pellets
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Civil unrest can range from peaceful protest to violent furor, and researchers are working to monitor, forecast, and assess such events to allocate resources better. Twitter has become a real-time data source for forecasting civil unrest because millions of people use the platform as a social outlet. Additionally, daily word counts are used as model features, and predictive terms contextualize the reasons for the protest. To forecast civil unrest and infer the reasons for the protest, we consider the problem of Bayesian variable selection for the dynamic logistic regression model and propose using penalized credible regions to select parameters of the updated state vector. This method avoids the need for shrinkage priors, is scalable to high-dimensional dynamic data, and allows the importance of variables to vary in time as new information becomes available. A substantial improvement in both precision and F1-score using this approach is demonstrated through simulation. Finally, we apply the proposed model fitting and variable selection methodology to the problem of forecasting civil unrest in Latin America. Our dynamic logistic regression approach shows improved accuracy compared to the static approach currently used in event prediction and feature selection.
Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.
Geotagging Twitter messages is an important tool for event detection and enrichment. Despite the availability of both social media content and user network information, these two features are generally utilized separately in the methodology. In this article, we create a hybrid method that uses Twitter content and network information jointly as model features. We use Gaussian mixture models to map the raw spatial distribution of the model features to a predicted field. This approach is scalable to large datasets and provides a natural representation of model confidence. Our method is tested against other approaches and we achieve greater prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the model also improves both precision and coverage.