Phillip D Anz-Meador | Search NASA

NASA NTRS2025

Time-Dependent Satellite Explosion Probabilities for Long-Term Orbital Debris Environment Modeling

On-orbit accidental explosions are a significant contributor to the growth of the orbital debris population. Certain types of satellites have been seen to exhibit different behaviors and timelines of explosions. Recent assessments of on-orbit explosions for three categories of satellites – Russian Sistema Obespecheniya Zapuska (SOZ, Proton 4th stage attitude and ullage motors) units, spacecraft, and rocket bodies – suggest that on-orbit explosions can be modeled using a continuous, time-dependent probability of explosion. This paper discusses the methodology for developing a time-dependent probability of explosion as a function of the satellite’s orbital lifetime based on historical explosions. The SOZ units are found to be best modeled by a modified Gaussian probability distribution, with the peak probability of explosion occurring around 10.4 years on-orbit. Spacecraft and rocket bodies both exhibit exponentially decaying explosion probabilities, with rocket bodies showing fast-, medium-, and slow-time modes of decay. Total cumulative probabilities of explosion are approximately 57% for SOZ units, 4% for spacecraft, and 2% for rocket bodies. Examples of implementation in a simulation of the orbital debris environment using NASA's long-term evolutionary model are given, showing the overall explosion behavior over two centuries is significantly different from that using a previously implemented constant-probability type-dependent explosion rate model and provides a better representation of the historical explosion record.

Alyssa P Manis↗

NASA NTRS2023

Hypervelocity Impact Characterization on Hubble Space Telescope Multi-Layer Insulation

Multi-layer insulation (MLI) is a common material used on rocket bodies and spacecraft to provide thermal regulation. This material is typically attached on the surface of the object in orbit and is thus exposed to the space environment and to micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts. Occasionally, these exposed surfaces are returned and used by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) for analysis. When used to assess impacts on surfaces over time, materials like MLI provide an opportunity for in-situ measurements to support the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) development and validation. During the 2009 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Serving Mission, the MLI blankets covering the HST electronics bays 5, 8, and 10 were removed and subsequently analyzed by the ODPO in 2010. The bay 5 blanket was used in concert with ground-based hypervelocity impact tests on single layer MLI to validate the ORDEM 3.1 computer model of the OD environment, but further research was required to properly differentiate the impact features attributed to MM or OD. The ORDEM 3.1 validation effort identified several areas of further study to improve model validation and understanding of the space environment. Among these topics are the effects of underlying MLI layers on first layer impact feature characteristics, the effects of space weathering and associated damage to the surface on impact feature characteristics, and the transition from perforating to cratering regions. To better understand hypervelocity impact damage and long-term degradation of MLI surfaces, further hypervelocity impact testing was proposed and completed from 2020 to 2022. This paper discusses test conditions and parameters with resultant impact hole analyses of single layer versus multi-layered samples, space-exposed samples versus pristine, equivalent samples, and perforation versus cratering criteria in the difficult transition region. Damage equations, with associated uncertainties, are estimated from the test parameters and presented. The results of a feasibility study are described, in which the scanning electron microscopy/electron dispersive x-ray was used to examine the MLI layers to differentiate MM and OD impacts. Finally, the extension of HST MLI outcomes and analysis methodology as it applies to future returned MLI samples is discussed.

Melissa A Murray↗