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Phillips, Adam

Publications and source records attributed to Phillips, Adam.

Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

An adequate characterization of internal modes of climate variability (MoV) is a prerequisite for both accurate seasonal predictions and climate change detection and attribution. Assessing the fidelity of climate models in simulating MoV is therefore essential; however, doing so is complicated by the large intrinsic variations in MoV and the limited span of the observational record. Large ensembles (LEs) provide a unique opportunity to assess model fidelity in simulating MoV and quantify intermodel contrasts. Here, in this work, these goals are pursued in four recently produced LEs: the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) versions 1 and 2 LEs, and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2 LEs. In general, the representation of global coupled modes is found to improve across successive E3SM and CESM versions in conjunction with the fidelity of the base state climate while the patterns of extratropical modes are well simulated across the ensembles. Various persistent shortcomings for all MoV are however identified and discussed. The results both demonstrate the successes of these recent model versions and suggest the potential for continued improvement in the representation of MoV with advances in model physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Circular Home: Development and Demonstration of a Net Negative Carbon, Reusable Residence

This project started the development of an innovative modular building system intended for residential construction. The project was centered around single-family homes that were carbon-negative cradle-to-grave over a 100 year time frame, which is approximately double the current standard for operational life. The project sought to accomplish this objective by designing the modular home in a manner that ensures circularity, where the main house components can be used over several consecutive 50-year lifespans. To accomplish these objectives, this project utilized integrated design with the inclusion of life-cycle assessment to design the single-family house for architectural, structural, energy, mechanical, thermal, and moisture demands, while ensuring carbon negativity and annual net-zero energy use. The core technology of this project was the use of cross-laminated timber and biogenic materials, such as wood-fiber insulation, in the construction of the modular building units. The robustness and factory manufacturing ability of cross-laminated timber allow for factory construction of most of the home, which minimizes on-site time, saving money and reducing construction waste. During this project, initial milestones were met that delivered the architectural plans for the circular home and an initial structural testing matrix. Compared to current code-built homes, which average 13 kg CO2eq. / ft2 and are demolished at their end of life, the circular home has an estimated -30 kg CO2eq. / ft2 of embodied carbon emissions during its first build iteration. It is estimated that approximately 60%-70% of the total building mass could be reused and/or recycled during subsequent rebuilds. This project was concluded at approximately the 1/3 point and a separate project was established to conclude the remaining milestones. This project promises to benefit the public by delivering another option for single-family, and eventually multi-family, housing using a novel building construction system. The system of reusable modular construction facilitates not only lower emissions during the first building iteration, but also lower emissions during subsequent iterations that drastically reduce waste and help society meet its climate goals. Many other industries, such as clothing and technology sectors, are starting to focus on circularity and this project adds the residential building construction industry to that list.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Effect of Membrane Casting Irregularities on Initial Fuel Cell Performance

Membrane electrode assemblies (MEA) for polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) may possess as-manufactured non-uniformities in any of its constituent components. This article studies casting irregularities located within the PEM to understand their potential impact on MEA initial performance. Membrane material was cast on a lab-scale polymer casting line operating either within or at the boundaries of the process window. The resulting membrane material was either pristine in the former case, or, in the latter case, contained air bubbles, cracks, and other irregularities, ranging in size from about 0.6 to 3 mm. Spatial polarization experiments were conducted using a 121-channel segmented fuel cell system, and thermal imaging was performed subsequently to map hydrogen crossover to spatial performance. While total-cell polarization data was minimally impacted by the irregularities, the spatial diagnostics showed local performance impacts that, in operation over time, could cause degradation in performance or earlier failure of the MEA. Such impacts could lead to these irregularities being classified as defects, i.e., manufacturing variations that should be identified and not included in a fuel cell stack. Classification of irregularities as defects will ultimately assist the industry by contributing to the development of threshold detection limits for in-line quality control diagnostics.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗