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Polly, Ben

Publications and source records attributed to Polly, Ben.

6 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing energy flexibility in clusters of buildings: A critical analysis of barriers from planning to operation

This paper examines building energy flexibility at an aggregated level and addresses the main barriers and research gaps for the development of this resource across three design and development phases: market and policy, early planning and design, and operation. We review methodologies and tools and discuss barriers, challenges, and opportunities, incorporating policy, economic, technical, professional, and social perspectives. Although various legal and regulatory frameworks exist to foster the development of energy flexibility for small buildings, financing mechanisms are limited with a significant number of perceived risks undermining private investment. For the early planning and design phase, planners and designers lack appropriate tools and face interoperability challenges, which often results in insufficient consideration of demand response programs. The review of the operational phase highlighted the socio-technical challenges related to both the complexity of deployment and communication, as well as privacy and acceptability issues. Finally, the paper proposes a number of targeted research directions to address challenges and promote greater energy flexibility deployments, including capturing building demand side dynamics, improving baseline estimations and developing seamless connectivity between buildings and districts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing and tuning a community scale energy model for a disadvantaged community

This work describes the development of a community-scale energy model for a mixed-use low-income community located in Huntington Beach, CA. An accurate community-scale energy model is useful for evaluating the use of limited capital resources used to invest in clean energy technologies. This work lays out the process of developing such a model while relying primarily on publicly available data and highlighting critical partnerships necessary for model development success. The primary contribution of this work is the demonstration of the process used to develop an accurate energy model for a disadvantaged community when minimal building and energy use data is available. The heart of the model is the physics-based community scale energy modeling platform URBANopt. Using a bottom-up load modeling approach, energy simulated energy use falls within 3% or less of aggregate annual utility data, and within 10% or less aggregate monthly utility data. The demonstrated model development and tuning process can be used by others to characterize other atypical communities, which may differ significantly from prototypical models.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Guide to Energy Master Planning of High-Performance Districts and Communities

This guide was developed with partners throughout the United States to demonstrate how implementing district-scale high-performance strategies can be successful and scalable approaches to achieving deep energy savings that increase affordability, improve resilience, reduce emissions, and foster economic development. This document serves as a framework for districts, campuses, and communities, illustrating an iterative process of building support for, planning, and implementing high-performance districts by engaging stakeholders, setting aggressive energy goals, completing technical and financial planning, and implementing a high-performance energy master plan. The information in this guide is based on a 3-year U.S. Department of Energy Zero Energy District Accelerator and a range of real-world examples of emerging high-performance districts. It is particularly useful for architects, planners, engineers, local government agencies, and real estate developers in the early phases of planning a district with high-performance or other deep energy goals. For the purposes of this guide, a high-performance district is a multibuilding development that achieves aggressive energy and related goals such as zero energy, carbon neutrality, sustainability, ultra-efficiency, etc. High-performance districts optimize energy efficiency to reduce energy loads and use renewable energy resources to meet the remaining loads whenever possible. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 defines a high-performance building as “a building that integrates and optimizes on a life cycle basis all major high-performance attributes, including energy conservation, environment, safety, security, durability, accessibility, cost-benefit, productivity, sustainability, functionality, and operational considerations.” High-performance districts are collections of such buildings that take advantage of the synergies available when energy consumption and production are considered at a district level rather than one building at a time.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗