Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Porro, Gian.
This is the webinar presentation deck used to present the 2016 Standard Scenarios work. It discusses the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) detailed cost and performance projections for electricity-generating technologies and the standard scenarios of the power sector modeling using ATB inputs.
The U.S. government, along with other governments, private corporations and organizations, invests significantly in research, development, demonstration and deployment (RDD&D) activities in clean energy technologies, in part to achieve the goal of a clean, secure, and reliable energy system. While specific outcomes and breakthroughs resulting from RDD&D investment are unpredictable, it can be instructive to explore the potential impacts of clean energy RDD&D activities in the power sector and to place those impacts in the context of current and anticipated market trends. This analysis builds on and leverages analysis by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) titled “Energy CO 2 Emissions Impacts of Clean Energy Technology Innovation and Policy” (DOE 2017). Similar to DOE (2017), we explore how additional improvements in cost and performance of clean energy technologies could impact the future U.S. energy system; however, unlike the economy-wide modeling used in DOE (2017) our analysis is focused solely on the electricity sector and applies a different and more highly spatially-resolved electric sector model. More specifically, we apply a scenario analysis approach to explore how assumed further advancements in clean electricity technologies would impact power sector generation mix, electricity system costs, and power sector carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions.
This report was developed by a team of national laboratory analysts over the period October 2015 to May 2016 and is part of a series of studies that provide background material to inform development of the second installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review (QER 1.2). The report focuses specifically on U.S. power sector generation. The report limits itself to the generation sector and does not address in detail parallel issues in electricity end use, transmission and distribution, markets and policy design, and other important segments. The report lists 15 key findings about energy system needs of the future.
The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the future direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.
This deck was presented for the 2016 Annual Technology Baseline Webinar. The presentation describes the Annual Technology Baseline, which is a compilation of current and future cost and performance data for electricity generation technologies.
This report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, may be defined in several ways. For example, one definition might be expected revenues (based on local market prices) minus generation costs, considered over the expected lifetime of the generation asset. Another definition might be generation costs relative to a benchmark (e.g., a natural gas combined cycle plant) using assumptions of fuel prices, capital cost, and plant efficiency. Economic potential in this report is defined as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity. The assessment is conducted at a high geospatial resolution (more than 150,000 technology-specific sites in the continental United States) to capture the significant variation in local resource, costs, and revenue potential. This metric can be a useful screening factor for understanding the economic viability of renewable generation technologies at a specific location. In contrast to many common estimates of renewable energy potential, economic potential does not consider market dynamics, customer demand, or most policy drivers that may incent renewable energy generation.
The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.
This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.