Model predictive control of a grid-scale Thermal Energy Storage system in RELAP5-3D
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Wallace, Jaron (ORCID:0000000233615322)↗
Engineering topics
Powell, Kody
Publications and source records attributed to Powell, Kody.
Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis
Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models
Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Utilization of an Advanced Sensor network to determine fuel heating value and Real-Time net unit heat rate during transient operation
Coal-fired utility boilers are being increasingly used as variable electricity generation to resolve the imbalance in the energy market from the expansion of intermittent renewable energy. The frequent transient operation required to meet residual energy demand has created a challenge for coal-fired units to operate efficiently. This work utilizes an advanced sensor network (ASN) to calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) of a coal-fired boiler in real time through combustion calculations and statistical correlations to provide the tools for optimizing dynamic operation. Real-time heating values that were necessary to determine fuel input energy to calculate accurate NUHR were found using both fundamental and data-driven methods. Real-time NUHR shows distinct shifts that reflect changes in process conditions that will improve the ability to optimize transient operation. Data-driven heating value correlations had 24% lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the fundamental combustion calculation approach when compared to daily retrospective proximate analysis. Furthermore, the data-driven method RMSE improved by 7% with the inclusion of ASN data. Future work is to validate by comparing unit performance with and without the inclusion of NUHR as a control parameter for the dynamic neural network.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Deployment of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization to Minimize Heat Rate During Ramping for Coal Power Plants (Final Technical Report)
Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Creating an Advanced Sensor Network to calculate real-time, mass-weighted flue gas composition and air heater leakage of a coal-fired utility boiler under dynamic operating conditions
Utilization of renewable energy sources to minimize the environmental impact of energy production has changed the way utility boilers operate, requiring frequent load cycling between full load and partial loads as low as 30%. Dynamic operation of coal-fired utility boilers significantly reduces boiler efficiency when compared to steady state at full load. Data-driven plant optimization has shown success with coal-fired utility boilers under dynamic operating conditions. The purpose of this work was to create an Advanced Sensor Network (ASN) to provide more extensive real-time data to inform dynamic plant optimization of Net Unit Heat Rate (NUHR). The ASN consists of gas sampling grids in the convective pass of the boiler and downstream of the air heater. These sampling grids allow for quantification of spatial variation of flue gas within the boiler and calculation of mass-weighted composition of flue gas through the combination of composition, velocity, and temperature measurements. The comparison of O 2 between the inlet and outlet of the air heater is used to calculate air leakage in real time. Flue gas composition and air heater leakage are both important factors in boiler efficiency and NUHR. Further, the results of this work support the value of mass-weighted averages for determining flue gas composition accurately. The measurements from the ASN show increased composition stratification during dynamic operation, with an average standard deviation 38% higher than observed during steady-state operation. Air heater leakage was also observed to increase from 2.8% to 5.1% following a load change. Prior to the installation of the ASN, these data would not have been available for dynamic control. These real-time data will be leveraged to calculate and optimize for NUHR during dynamic operation in future work.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Physics-guided neural networks with engineering domain knowledge for hybrid process modeling
As neural networks are more frequently used to solve problems in science and engineering, the methods used to incorporate scientific knowledge into these networks are becoming increasingly complex. Here, this work breaks down these complicated techniques into a set of basic strategies which can easily be applied to diverse situations. Several novel neural networks are built using the categories laid out in this work. These networks are tested on simulated data from a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) model to evaluate the advantages provided by each network. The three points demonstrated in this work are: (1) architectural hybrid models can speed up convergence and reduce the amount of data necessary to train a model; (2) adding a physics-guided loss function can improve model generalization and make models more physically consistent; (3) using physics-guided initialization and transfer learning improves accuracy and speeds up convergence, but can harm generalizability if used incorrectly.
42 ENGINEERING↗
University of Utah Industrial Assessment Center: Final Technical Report
This is the final technical report for the Utah Industrial Assessment Center 2016 - 2021.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Improving the economics of battery storage for industrial customers: Are incentives enough to increase adoption?
As adoption of behind-the-meter battery energy storage increases across the United States, implementation continues to lag in the industrial sector. This analysis considers two manufacturing facilities with potential for load shifting to reduce peak demand. Although both facilities have load profiles that demonstrate great potential for regular and programmed demand reduction during peak hours, battery energy storage was deemed prohibitively expensive. A review of several existing utility and state-level policies and incentives determined that few may be rightsized for the industrial customer class. Furthermore, this analysis further considers multiple incentive structures and finds that although incentives increase viability of energy storage, developers must also consider optimization, unique load profiles, and use case to effectively increase adoption of battery energy storage by industrial customers.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Techno-economic analysis and environmental benefits of solar industrial process heating based on parabolic trough collectors
In this work, detailed techno-economic and environmental analyses are conducted for employing a 5 MWt parabolic trough-based solar industrial process heat (SIPH) plant in Salt Lake City, Utah. According to the results, an optimum solar multiple of 1.5 was determined, allowing the plant to generate annual thermal energy of 15389.24 MWth with a capacity factor of 35.1% and levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of $\$ 26.3$/MWth. Considering a 30% investment tax credit and a 30% reduction in the total installed cost could reduce the LCOH to $\$ 19.30$/MWth and $\$ 18.52$/MWth, respectively. Employing parabolic trough collectors could avoid emissions of 3,582,422.47 kg, 147.99 kg, 3,341.66 kg, and 14.32 kg for CO 2 , PM, NOx, and SO 2 , respectively per year compared to a natural gas-based plant. Further, it also caused an annual external cost savings of between $\$ 99,900$ and $\$ 357,004$. Including the external costs in the LCOH analysis shows that the SIPH plant is economically competitive with a natural gas-based plant, further demonstrating its value. A further comparison demonstrated the economic superiority of a parabolic trough-driven IPH plant over a photovoltaic-driven electric boiler plant. In summary, with reducing installed costs and providing incentives, parabolic trough-driven IPH plants will be an economically and environmentally viable option.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Thermoeconomic analysis of a multigeneration system using waste heat from a triple power cycle
Multigeneration systems represent an appealing concept, due to their multiple benefits compared to standalone systems, which has motivated researchers to develop different types of multigeneration systems for several applications. Considering their significance, in this study, a novel multigeneration is proposed that uses the waste heat of a thermodynamically efficient triple power cycle with a 100 MWe capacity. The proposed system, which can generate power, freshwater, cooling, and domestic hot water concurrently, is evaluated using detailed thermodynamic and economic analyses. The triple cycle includes a simple Brayton cycle coupled with a supercritical carbon dioxide recompression cycle and a high-temperature organic Rankine cycle. The waste energy of the recompression and organic Rankine cycles is recovered by a half effect absorption chiller, a multi-effect distillation unit, and two heat exchangers. The results show that for an optimized triple cycle, up to 1,804 kW cooling and 8,472 m 3 /day of hot water can be generated from the hot supercritical carbon dioxide stream with a levelized cost of cooling and hot water of 0.0362/ton-hr and $0.6823/MWth, respectively. The integration of a multi-effect distillation unit with 7 effects can generate 4,167 m 3 /day freshwater with a levelized cost of water of $1.142/m 3 . Finally, the proposed multigeneration system offers a very promising application and a number of benefits such as a generating multiple useful products with no adverse effect on the thermodynamic efficiency of the triple power cycle.
Thermoeconomic analysis↗
Techno-economic analysis of the impact of dynamic electricity prices on solar penetration in a smart grid environment with distributed energy storage
This study investigates the technical and economic feasibility of using high levels of solar energy penetration up to 400 MW into a smart grid system of 60,000 smart houses. A novel non-cooperative Stackelberg game is introduced that incorporates the profitability of the supply-side and helps in solving problems related to overgeneration and photovoltaic curtailment. The non-cooperative game is intended to find the optimal dynamic prices that would leverage distributed storage through the demand-side to stabilize the power grid operation. Ten cases are studied with five photovoltaic plant sizes and two battery designs. Here, a novel quantitative analysis of high levels of solar penetration as a percentage of the total electricity demand is introduced to evaluate the technical feasibility of the studied cases. To evaluate the economic viability of the proposed smart grid system, four metrics were used: the levelized cost of energy, the levelized cost of storage, the payback period, and the net present value. Two out of ten studied cases were concluded to be the most promising cases, one with a solar photovoltaic plant size of 200 MW and the other with 300 MW. The case with 300 MW solar plant is preferred as it paves the way for more solar energy deployment with a solar penetration percentage up to 67.78%. This case had a payback period of 10.72 years and a net present value of $\$51.44$ M for the solar plant and a payback period of 12.06 years and a net present value of $\$40.75$ M for the demand-side.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Development of high concentration photovoltaics (HCPV) power plants in the US Southwest: Economic assessment and sensitivity analysis
High concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) technologies offer several advantages over typical PV systems. In this study, a detailed economic assessment and sensitivity analysis of deploying HCPV plants in the US southwest is performed. To do this, a 20 MWdc HCPV power plant is designed using the System Advisor Model (SAM) and is evaluated from both technical and financial aspects. The sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the installed cost per capacity of the HCPV system can significantly improve the economics and reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized power purchase agreement (LPPA). Also, providing proper incentives including both investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC), loan debt ratio, and interest rate are among the most influential parameters. The analysis shows that with the 30% ITC, the LCOE, and LPPA of the designed HCPV projects are between $65.4/MWh and $69.3/MWh and between $71.0/MWh and $75.2/MWh, respectively. The estimated LCOE and LPPA values are almost 50% higher than the utility-scale PV projects. If proper funding is provided to continue the support of the HCPV system, they would become more economical and competitive with PV plants. Federal and state government policies must also be established to advocate HCPV systems.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Dynamic optimization and economic evaluation of flexible heat integration in a hybrid concentrated solar power plant
Hybridization of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants provides flexibility in operation that can drastically improve the solar-to-electric (STE) efficiency and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) relative to standalone CSP plants. Flexible heat integration (FHI) is a novel concept where the collection and integration of CSP within a power plant is modified relative to the amount of solar energy available. FHI improves the thermal efficiency of a hybrid solar tower steam Rankine cycle power plant but leads to increased pumping needs due to continuously elevated molten salt flow rates through the collection system, which can negatively impact STE efficiency. The present work is carried out to maximize the STE efficiency of a hybrid CSP plant utilizing FHI by employing a dynamic optimization framework where a genetic algorithm optimizes the operation of the plant over a given solar irradiance profile. The study concerns a plant hypothetically located in Salt Lake City, Utah. Here, the optimization results confirm the accuracy of a predictive heuristic where the preferred operation of the plant can be estimated relative to local peaks in the incident power generated by the heliostat collection field. The optimized FHI operation demonstrates a yearly STE efficiency of 13.8%, whereas the equivalent base-level hybrid and solar-only plants exhibit solar efficiencies of 13.4% and 11.2%, respectively. Economic analysis shows that FHI reduces yearly natural gas costs, leading to a $\$0.5$/MWh reduction in LCOE relative to the base-level hybrid configuration. Overall, the results show that hybrid FHI schemes exhibit economic benefits along with observed thermodynamic improvements.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
A novel triple power cycle featuring a gas turbine cycle with supercritical carbon dioxide and organic Rankine cycles: Thermoeconomic analysis and optimization
In this study, a novel triple power cycle is proposed where waste heat from a gas turbine cycle is utilized to drive a supercritical carbon dioxide (s-CO 2 ) recompression cycle and a recuperative organic Rankine cycle (ORC) in sequence. A detailed thermoeconomic model is developed and implemented in MATLAB to evaluate the performance of the proposed cycle under different operating conditions. Optimization using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is performed to minimize the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and determine the optimum design conditions of the cycle. The optimization results show that for a 100 MW cycle, the overall thermal efficiency and LCOE are 0.521 and $\$52.819$/MWh, respectively. The turbine inlet temperature of the gas turbine and s-CO 2 cycles are found as the most influential parameters on the thermoeconomic performance of the triple cycle. The proposed triple cycle shows an excellent waste energy recovery potential and superiority over a very thermodynamically efficient cycle from the literature, which included a gas turbine topping cycle and a complex cascade s-CO 2 power cycle used a bottoming cycle. As a result, the proposed triple cycle shows up to 0.9% points higher efficiency while it has fewer heat exchangers and turbomachinery than the cycle from the literature.
30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
Solving the duck curve in a smart grid environment using a non-cooperative game theory and dynamic pricing profiles
With the intermittency that comes with electricity generation from renewables, utilizing dynamic pricing will encourage the demand-side to respond in a smart way that would minimize the electricity costs and flatten the net electricity demand curve. Determining the optimal dynamic pricing profile that would leverage distributed storage to flatten the curve is a novel idea that needs to be studied. Moreover, the economic feasibility of utilizing distributed electrical energy storage is still not given in the literature. Therefore, in this paper, a novel way of solving a citywide dynamic model using a bilevel programming algorithm is introduced. The problem is developed as a novel non-cooperative Stackelberg game that utilizes air-conditioning systems and electrical storage through the end-users to determine the optimal dynamic pricing profile. The results show that the combined effect of utilizing demand-side air-conditioning systems and distributed storage together can flatten the curve while employing the optimal dynamic pricing profile. An economic study is performed to determine the economic feasibility of 20 different cases with different battery designs and the level of solar penetration. Three metrics were used to evaluate the economic performance of each case: the levelized cost of storage, the levelized cost of energy, and the simple payback period. Most cases had levelized cost of storage values lower than 0.457 $/kWh, which is the lower bound available in the literature. Seven out of 16 cases have a simple payback period shorter than the lifetime of the system (25 years). The case with a 100 MW PV power plant and a battery storage of size 597 MWh, was found to be the most promising case with a simple payback period of 12.71 years for the photovoltaic plant and 19.86 years for the demand-side investments.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗