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Pracheil, Brenda

Publications and source records attributed to Pracheil, Brenda.

How Fisheries Biologists Can Facilitate the Clean Energy Transition

Abstract Fisheries and aquatic biologists play a critical role in creating environmentally protective hydropower flow requirements that govern flow timing, frequency, magnitude, and rate of change. Hydropower's role in the U.S. electrical grid is expected to evolve in response to increased wind and solar generation as hydropower will be called upon to quickly ramp up and down in response to changes in wind and solar generation. For this reason, hydropower is expected to have increased value as fossil generation is phased out, even as rapid flow fluctuations linked with hydropower flexibility may strand fish, alter habitat, and create unsafe recreational conditions. We face a new challenge in facilitating the renewable energy transition—designing environmental flow requirements that protect against the impacts of flow fluctuations while allowing adequate hydropower flexibility to support a stable grid. In this paper, we discuss hydropower environmental flow requirements, operational flexibility, and electrical grid stability, their potential interactions, and opportunities to align environmental and power system needs to support healthy ecosystems, multiple water uses, and decarbonization of the electric grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Low flow characteristics for regulated and unregulated streams in North Carolina and prediction using climate signals

In this work, low flow statistics of regulated and unregulated streams in the state of North Carolina were updated with streamflow data through 2019. About 22% of the streams considered show a significant downward trend, but considerable low-frequency variability confounding trends. The relationship between regional index time series of groundwater-depth low flow and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was examined to determine whether low-frequency climate modes can account for the long-term pattern in low flows. Consequently, a significant correlation was found between AMO and groundwater-depth low flow, such that positive AMO is associated with lower groundwater-depth low flow and vice versa, particularly for the Piedmont region. Predictive equations for annual low flows at the ecoregion level shows that springtime average streamflow and AMO were selected as the primary predictors of low flow for coastal and Piedmont regions, whereas springtime average streamflow and the November–December–January average Oceanic Niño Index were used as the primary predictors for the mountain region. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) of the disaggregated predictions to US Geologic Survey gauge locations was <23% at 79% of the stations, between 24% and 43% at 10% of the stations, and greater than 44% at 1% of the stations. The remaining 10% of stations showed large RMSEs. This latter percentage is characterized by smaller drainage basins and intermittent flows, suggesting the prediction models are not applicable to drainage basins smaller than roughly 20 square km and intermittent streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydropower Role in a Power Grid with a High Proportion of Variable Renewables

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordination of multiple tools, including water resources modeling, ecological modeling, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. Better representation of ecological constraints and other water use details in the suit of power grid models are required to identify the hydropower flexibility to provide multiple power grid services. Impacts of water planning and hydropower operation changes to a power grid are better understood by production cost model simulations with technical and economic data, including unserved energy, reserve failures, transmission congestion to serve load, and local marginal price increases. Similarly, PCM simulation of current and future projected power grid information, including LMP, and carbon emission rates, informs short-term water release plans and long-term investments for power plant upgrades for technical and ecological needs. Hydropower operations of several case studies are simulated to understand operation patterns, revenue, water release decisions in multiple time scales (month, day, minutes), hydropower contracts scheduling, and water variability impacts.

environmental↗

Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity Product User Guide

The Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity products provide a platform for identifying favorable areas for basin-wide collaboration using metrics derived from anticipated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing dates. The hydropower relicensing process requires long-term resource allocation by agencies, hydropower owner/operators, non-governmental organizations, and tribal, state, and federal governments. Basin-scale hydropower relicensing has begun to receive attention as a potential solution for reducing licensing timelines, costs, and uncertainty which can provide benefits to a broad spectrum of participants in the licensing process. Two products were developed: (1) an interactive web map that allows users to browse facilities and rivers of interest and uncover locations for potential collaboration based on FERC relicensing metrics summarized along river reaches and (2) a spreadsheet that contains 1,261 facilities with associated FERC relicensing metrics and that allows users to join these data to others and develop and conduct their own analyses.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Basin-Scale Relicensing Opportunity

This dataset contains 1,261 hydropower facilities with associated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing metrics. Anticipated FERC license renewal dates are summarized by river reach for observing areas of opportunities for basin-wide collaboration on environmental mitigations. Identifying rivers and basins with facilities that have similar anticipated Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing dates may be one potential indicator that multiple licensees within the same basin may be willing to collaborate on a basin-scale relicensing effort. The hydropower relicensing process requires long-term resource allocation by agencies, hydropower owner/operators, non-governmental organizations, and tribal, state, and federal governments. Basin-scale hydropower relicensing has begun to receive attention as a potential solution for reducing licensing timelines, costs, and uncertainty which can provide benefits to a broad spectrum of participants in the licensing process. This dataset contains one a data file in comma separated (*.csv) format, a data dictionary in *.csv format, and a user guide in *.pdf format. These data are also available as an interactive web map available at:

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Hydropower flexibility valuation tool for flow requirement evaluation

Timing of generation is becoming more and more valuable. This creates greater potential tension between environmental and power system objectives since both systems require their own flow patterns. Identifying win–win outcomes in this context requires being able to discuss the value of flexibility across stakeholder groups. This research proposes a two-stage optimization method to understand hydropower flexibility to meet both environmental and power system requirements. The tool simulates the two-settlement market process in the U.S. by maximizing revenues from both the day-ahead and real-time markets, subject to plant operational limits, regulatory flow and ramping requirements, and uncertainties associated with water availability and market prices. The model is formulated as linear programming problems and solved using IBM ILOG CPLEX optimizer. By examining a range of flow requirements, ramping constraints, and storage capacities, the proposed tool shows how to make more informed decisions to weigh the cost of specific flow requirements in the context of the overall license requirements. Results from the case study show that revenue is more sensitive to the ramping constraints than the minimum flow constraints. We also demonstrate that removing flow constraints in a dry month increases monthly revenue by up to 118%, as opposed to only 1% in a wet month. In addition, our results suggest that using a learning-based water flow forecast results in an increase of monthly revenue up to 6.4% compared with persistence forecast.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗