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Prather, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Prather, M..

“Development of Interactive Chemistry in E3SM v2” Final Report (3/1/2023-2/29/2024)

We are pleased to report that the proposed milestones and tasks under this subcontract, or those modified subsequently by the Technical Representative based on project needs, have been met. In general, the accomplishments under this subcontract exceeded the originally proposed milestones and effort, and went from code development to scientific results and high-profile publications, to mission critical software development for the E3SM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final report of LLNS subcontract No. B646608

This report refers to Subcontract No. B646608 from Lawrence Livermore National Security to UC Irvine. The vision of this subcontract is to implement new, necessary scientific modeling capabilities within the E3SM code repository for versions 2 through 4.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three-Dimensional Model Synthesis of the Global Methane Cycle

A synthesis of the global methane cycle is presented to attempt to generate an accurate global methane budget. Methane-flux measurements, energy data, and agricultural statistics are merged with databases of land-surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities. The sources and sinks of methane are estimated based on atmospheric methane composition and variations, and a global 3D transport model simulates the corresponding atmospheric responses. The geographic and seasonal variations of candidate budgets are compared with observational data, and the available observations are used to constrain the plausible methane budgets. The preferred budget includes annual destruction rates and annual emissions for various sources. The lack of direct flux measurements in the regions of many of these fluxes makes the unique determination of each term impossible. OH oxidation is found to be the largest single term, although more measurements of this and other terms are recommended.

Fung, I.↗

Theory and observations: Model simulations of the period 1955-1985

The main objective of the theoretical studies presented here is to apply models of stratospheric chemistry and transport in order to understand the processes that control stratospheric ozone and that are responsible for the observed variations. The model calculations are intended to simulate the observed behavior of atmospheric ozone over the past three decades (1955-1985), for which there exists a substantial record of both ground-based and, more recently, satellite measurements. Ozone concentrations in the atmosphere vary on different time scales and for several different causes. The models described here were designed to simulate the effect on ozone of changes in the concentration of such trace gases as CFC, CH4, N2O, and CO2. Changes from year to year in ultraviolet radiation associated with the solar cycle are also included in the models. A third source of variability explicitly considered is the sporadic introduction of large amounts of NO sub x into the stratosphere during atmospheric nuclear tests.

Isaksen, Ivar S. A.↗

Model predictions of ozone changes

The predictions of several one-dimensional models were examined for a number of prescribed scenarios in steady-state or time-dependent approximations. A small number of two-dimensional steady-state calculations for a limited number of scenarios were compared with the results of one-dimensional models. The sensitivity of the calculated predictions to the values of input parameters were examined in order to assess recognized uncertainties in these predictions.

Johnston, H. S.↗

Tropospheric trace gases

Trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere reflect in part the overall metabolism of the biosphere, and in part the broad range of human activities such as agriculture, production of industrial chemicals, and combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. There is compelling evidence that the composition of the atmosphere is now changing. Observed trends in trace gas levels are reviewed and implications for the chemistry of the atmosphere are discussed. Throughout the discussion, particular emphasis is given to those species which are now increasing in the atmosphere.

Gammon, R.↗