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Prather, M. J.

Publications and source records attributed to Prather, M. J..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

GMI-IPS: Python Processing Software for Aircraft Campaigns

NASA's Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) seeks to understand the impact of anthropogenic air pollution on gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Four flight campaigns are being deployed on a seasonal basis to establish a continuous global-scale data set intended to improve the representation of chemically reactive gases in global atmospheric chemistry models. The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), is creating chemical transport simulations on a global scale for each of the ATom flight campaigns. To meet the computational demands required to translate the GMI simulation data to grids associated with the flights from the ATom campaigns, the GMI ICARTT Processing Software (GMI-IPS) has been developed and is providing key functionality for data processing and analysis in this ongoing effort. The GMI-IPS is written in Python and provides computational kernels for data interpolation and visualization tasks on GMI simulation data. A key feature of the GMI-IPS, is its ability to read ICARTT files, a text-based file format for airborne instrument data, and extract the required flight information that defines regional and temporal grid parameters associated with an ATom flight. Perhaps most importantly, the GMI-IPS creates ICARTT files containing GMI simulated data, which are used in collaboration with ATom instrument teams and other modeling groups. The initial main task of the GMI-IPS is to interpolate GMI model data to the finer temporal resolution (1-10 seconds) of a given flight. The model data includes basic fields such as temperature and pressure, but the main focus of this effort is to provide species concentrations of chemical gases for ATom flights. The software, which uses parallel computation techniques for data intensive tasks, linearly interpolates each of the model fields to the time resolution of the flight. The temporally interpolated data is then saved to disk, and is used to create additional derived quantities. In order to translate the GMI model data to the spatial grid of the flight path as defined by the pressure, latitude, and longitude points at each flight time record, a weighted average is then calculated from the nearest neighbors in two dimensions (latitude, longitude). Using SciPya's Regular Grid Interpolator, interpolation functions are generated for the GMI model grid and the calculated weighted averages. The flight path points are then extracted from the ATom ICARTT instrument file, and are sent to the multi-dimensional interpolating functions to generate GMI field quantities along the spatial path of the flight. The interpolated field quantities are then written to a ICARTT data file, which is stored for further manipulation. The GMI-IPS is aware of a generic ATom ICARTT header format, containing basic information for all flight campaigns. The GMI-IPS includes logic to edit metadata for the derived field quantities, as well as modify the generic header data such as processing dates and associated instrument files. The ICARTT interpolated data is then appended to the modified header data, and the ICARTT processing is complete for the given flight and ready for collaboration. The output ICARTT data adheres to the ICARTT file format standards V1.1. The visualization component of the GMI-IPS uses Matplotlib extensively and has several functions ranging in complexity. First, it creates a model background curtain for the flight (time versus model eta levels) with the interpolated flight data superimposed on the curtain. Secondly, it creates a time-series plot of the interpolated flight data. Lastly, the visualization component creates averaged 2D model slices (longitude versus latitude) with overlaid flight track circles at key pressure levels. The GMI-IPS consists of a handful of classes and supporting functionality that have been generalized to be compatible with any ICARTT file that adheres to the base class definition. The base class represents a generic ICARTT entry, only defining a single time entry and 3D spatial positioning parameters. Other classes inherit from this base class; several classes for input ICARTT instrument files, which contain the necessary flight positioning information as a basis for data processing, as well as other classes for output ICARTT files, which contain the interpolated model data. Utility classes provide functionality for routine procedures such as: comparing field names among ICARTT files, reading ICARTT entries from a data file and storing them in data structures, and returning a reduced spatial grid based on a collection of ICARTT entries. Although the GMI-IPS is compatible with GMI model data, it can be adapted with reasonable effort for any simulation that creates Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) files. The same can be said of its adaptability to ICARTT files outside of the context of the ATom mission. The GMI-IPS contains just under 30,000 lines of code, eight classes, and a dozen drivers and utility programs. It is maintained with GIT source code management and has been used to deliver processed GMI model data for the ATom campaigns that have taken place to date.

Damon, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Use of North American and European Air Quality Networks to Evaluate Global Chemistry-Climate Modeling of Surface Ozone

We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1 degree by 1 degree grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (approximately 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 parts per billion, and the observed seasonal range (approximately 21 parts per billion) is underestimated by about 5 parts per billion except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 parts per billion. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 percent of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 parts per billion for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.

diurnal variations↗
NASA NTRS2013

Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (Delta CO/Delta NOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 +/- 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 +/- 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 +/- 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 +/-2.3%, 7.6 +/- 1.5%, and 3.1 +/- 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.

nitrogen oxides↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key findings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not been responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40degN; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

Danilin, M. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key Endings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not be responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40 deg N; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

Danilin, M. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Diurnal Variation of Hydrogen, Nitrogen, and Chlorine Radicals: Implications for the Heterogeneous Production of HNO2

In situ measurements of hydrogen, nitrogen, and chlorine radicals obtained through sunrise and sunset in the lower stratosphere during SPADE are compared to results from a photochemical model constrained by observed concentrations of radical precursors and environmental conditions. Models allowing for heterogeneous hydrolysis of N205 on sulfate aerosols agree with measured concentrations of NO, NO2, and ClO throughout the day, but fail to account for high concentrations of OH and H02 observed near sunrise and sunset. The morning burst of [OH] and [HO2] coincides with the rise of [NO] from photolysis of N02, suggesting a new source of HO, that photolyzes in the near UV (350 to 400 nm) spectral region. A model that allows for the heterogeneous production of HN02 results in an excellent simulation of the diurnal variations of [OH] and [HO2].

Salawitch, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Buffering of stratospheric circulation by changing amounts of tropical ozone - A Pinatubo case study

Stratospheric aerosol from Mount Pinatubo heated the tropical lower stratosphere by about 0.3 K/day mainly due to absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation. This heating was dissipated by: (1) an observed increase in stratospheric temperatures, which enhanced the radiation cooling; (2) additional mean upward motion, observed for the aerosol cloud, which led to adiabatic cooling; and (3) reductions in ozone concentrations resulting from enhanced upward motions. Each of these processes operated on a different time scale: maximum temperatures were observed after about 90 days; maximum ozone losses of about -1.5 ppm occurred after 140 days when the enhanced vertical velocities effectively lifted the ozone profile by about 2 km. We believe this shows that ozone plays an important role in buffering vertical motion in the tropical lower stratosphere, and hence the residual Brewer Dobson circulation of the whole stratosphere.

Kinne, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft: A topical review

In the late 1960s the aircraft industry became interested in developing a fleet of supersonic transports (SSTs). Between 1972 and 1975, the Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP) studied the possible environmental impact of SSTs. For environmental and economic reasons, the fleet of SSTs was not developed. The Upper Atmosphere Research Program (UARP) has recently undertaken the responsibility of directing scientific research needed to assess the atmospheric impact of supersonic transports. The UARP and the High-Speed Research Program asked Harold Johnston to review the current understanding of aircraft emissions and their effect on the stratosphere. Johnston and his colleagues have recently re-examined the SST problem using current models for stratospheric ozone chemistry. A unique view is given here of the current scientific issues and the lessons learned since the beginning of CIAP, and it links the current research program with the assessment process that began two years ago.

Johnston, Harold S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A numerical method for parameterization of atmospheric chemistry - Computation of tropospheric OH

An efficient and stable computational scheme for parameterization of atmospheric chemistry is described. The 24-hour-average concentration of OH is represented as a set of high-order polynomials in variables such as temperature, densities of H2O, CO, O3, and NO(t) (defined as NO + NO2 + NO3 + 2N2O5 + HNO2 + HNO4) as well as variables determining solar irradiance: cloud cover, density of the overhead ozone column, surface albedo, latitude, and solar declination. This parameterization of OH chemistry was used in the three-dimensional study of global distribution of CH3CCl3. The proposed computational scheme can be used for parameterization of rates of chemical production and loss or of any other output of a full chemical model.

Spivakovsky, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Tropospheric OH in a three-dimensional chemical tracer model - An assessment based on observations of CH3CCl3

The paper introduces the representation of tropospheric chemistry allowing for calculation of chemical reaction rates within a chemical tracer model (CTM) simulation with the accuracy comparable to that of a detailed chemical model. The global distribution of tropospheric OH is calculated as a function of time, atmospheric composition, temperature, and solar irradiance. The globally integrated OH concentration weighted by frequency of reaction with CH3CCl3 is evaluated, along with the feasibility of using the observed latitudinal distribution of CH3CCl3 as a test for computed concentrations of OH. Seasonal variations of CH3CCl3 are also considered as a potential test for computed concentrations of OH. It is demonstrated that annual cycles of CH3CCl3 are controlled, or strongly influenced, by dynamical processes at latitudes northward of 25 deg South.

Spivakovsky, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere 1990: An assessment report

NASA is charged with the responsibility to report on the state of the knowledge of the Earth's upper atmosphere, particularly the stratosphere. Part 1 of this report, issued earlier this year, summarized the objectives, status, and accomplishments of the research tasks supported under NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Program during the last two years. New findings since the last report to Congress was issued in 1988 are presented. Several scientific assessments of the current understanding of the chemical composition and physical structure of the stratosphere are included, in particular how the abundance and distribution of ozone is predicted to change in the future. These reviews include: a summary of the most recent international assessment of stratospheric ozone; a study of future chlorine and bromine loading of the atmosphere; a review of the photochemical and chemical kinetics data that are used as input parameters for the atmospheric models; a new assessment of the impact of Space Shuttle launches on the stratosphere; a summary of the environmental issues and needed research to evaluate the impact of the newly re-proposed fleet of stratospheric supersonic civil aircraft; and a list of the contributors to this report and the science assessments which have formed our present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere and ozone depletion.

Watson, R. T.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Climate change and the middle atmosphere. I - The doubled CO2 climate

The effect of doubling the atmospheric content of CO2 on the middle-atmosphere climate is investigated using the GISS global climate model. In the standard experiment, the CO2 concentration is doubled both in the stratosphere and troposphere, and the SSTs are increased to match those of the doubled CO2 run of the GISS model. Results show that the doubling of CO2 leads to higher temperatures in the troposphere, and lower temperatures in the stratosphere, with a net result being a decrease of static stability for the atmosphere as a whole. The middle atmosphere dynamical differences found were on the order of 10-20 percent of the model values for the current climate. These differences, along with the calculated temperature differences of up to about 10 C, may have a significant impact on the chemistry of the future atmosphere, including that of stratospheric ozone, the polar ozone 'hole', and basic atmospheric composition.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere 1988: An assessment report

This document was issued in response to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Public Law 95-95, mandating that NASA and other key agencies submit biennial reports to Congress and EPA. NASA is to report on the state of our knowledge of the upper atmosphere, particularly the stratosphere. This is the sixth ozone assessment report submitted to Congress and the concerned regulatory agencies. Part 1 contains an outline of the NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Program and summaries of the research efforts supported during the last two years. An assessment is presented of the state of knowledge as of March 15, 1988 when the Ozone Trends Panel, organized by NASA and co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization, NOAA, FAA and the United Nations Environment Program released an executive summary of its findings from a critical in-depth study involving over 100 scientists from 12 countries. Chapter summaries of the International Ozone Trends Panel Report form the major part of this report. Two other sections are Model Predictions of Future Ozone Change and Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modeling. Each of these sections and the report in its entirety were peer reviewed.

Watson, R. T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Numerical advection by conservation of second-order moments

A new, accurate, and nondiffusive method for three-dimensional advection of trace species is presented. The method preserves tracer structures by conserving the second-order moments of the spatial distribution of tracer during advection. Upstream transport and second-order tracer distribution are described, and the moments of the tracer distribution about the center of a grid box are formally defined and related to the polynomial distribution. Formulas are presented which describe how the moments of a grid box are decomposed into a unique set of moments centered about each subbox and how they are reassembled into new grid boxes. A one-dimensional example if tracer transport is given, and limits necessary to maintain positive tracer concentrations are derived. The accuracy and stability of this method are analytically examined, and numerical experiments testing the effective resolution are presented. The method is compared with other methods for numerical advection of tracers.

Prather, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Continental sources of halocarbons and nitrous oxide

Estimates of continental sources of CFC-11, CFC-12, CCl4, CH3CCl3 and N2O are derived from the atmospheric lifetime experiment in Adrigole, Ireland, and anthropogenic emissions of CCl4 and N2O from Europe have been identified. Relative source strengths are consistent with global budgets for the halocarbons and N2O. Different industrial release patterns for halocarbons are observed for Europe, the western United States and Australia.

Prather, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Assessment models

The types of models used in assessment of possible chemical perturbations to the stratosphere are reviewed. The statue of one and two dimensional models are discussed. The problem of model validation is covered before the status of photochemical modeling efforts is discussed. A hierarchy of tests for photochemical models is presented.

Pyle, J. A.↗