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Preston, Leiph

Publications and source records attributed to Preston, Leiph.

At least 55 records · Page 3

The effects of earth model uncertainty on the inversion of seismic data for seismic source functions

SUMMARY We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the effects of earth model uncertainty on the estimation of the seismic source time functions that correspond to the six independent components of the point source seismic moment tensor. Specifically, we invert synthetic data using Green’s functions estimated from a suite of earth models that contain stochastic density and seismic wave-speed heterogeneities. We find that the primary effect of earth model uncertainty on the data is that the amplitude of the first-arriving seismic energy is reduced, and that this amplitude reduction is proportional to the magnitude of the stochastic heterogeneities. Also, we find that the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions can be under- or overestimated, depending on the stochastic earth model used to create the data. This effect is totally unpredictable, meaning that uncertainty in the earth model can lead to unpredictable biases in the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Inverting infrasound data for the seismoacoustic source time functions and surface spall at the Source Physics Experiments Phase II: Dry Alluvium Geology

This report presents the infrasound data recorded as part of the Source Physics Experiment - Phase 2, Dry Alluvium Geology. This experiment, also known colloquially as DAG, consisted of four underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We focus our analysis on only the fourth explosion (DAG-4) as we determined that this was the only event that produced clear source-generated infrasound energy as recorded by the DAG sensors. We analyze the data using two inversion methods. The first method is designed to estimate the point-source seismoacoustic source time functions, and the second inversion method is designed to estimate the first-order characteristics (e.g. horizontal dimensions and maximum amplitude) of the actual spall surface. For both analysis methods, we are able to fit the data reasonably well, with various assumptions of the source model. The estimated seismoacoustic source appears to be a combination of a buried, isotropic explosion with a maximum amplitude of ~2 x 10 9 Nm and a vertically oriented force, applied to the Earth's surface with a maximum amplitude of 4 x 10 7 N. We use the vertically oriented force to simulate surface spall. The estimated spall surface has an approximate radius of ~40 m with a maximum acceleration magnitude in the range of 0.8 to 1.5 m/s/s. These estimates are approximately similar to the measured surface acceleration at the site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Near-Field Imaging of Shallow Chemical Explosions in Granite Using Change Detection Methods with Surface and Borehole Seismic Data

Explosions detonated in geologic media damage it in various ways via processes that include vaporization, fracturing, crushing of interstitial pores, etc. Seismic waves interact with the altered media in ways that could be important to the discrimination, characterization, and location of the explosions. As part of the Source Physics Experiment, we acquired multiple pre- and post-explosion near-field seismic datasets and analyzed changes to seismic P-wave velocity. Our results indicate that the first explosion detonated in an intact media can cause fracturing and, consequently, a decrease in P-wave velocity. After the first explosion, subsequent detonations in the pre-damaged media have limited discernible effects. We hypothesize this is due to the stress-relief provided by a now pre-existing network of fractures into which gasses produced by the explosion migrate. We also see an overall increase in velocity of the damaged region over time, either due to a slow healing process or closing of the fractures by subsequent explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Estimation of Infrasonic Source Functions at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert infrasound signals for an equivalent seismoacoustic source function using different atmospheric models to produce the necessary Green’s functions. The infrasound signals were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). In a previous study, we inverted the infrasound data using so-called predictive atmospheric models, which were based on historic, regional-scaled, publicly available weather observations interpolated onto a 3D grid. For the work presented here, we invert the same infrasound data, but using atmospheric models based on weather data collected in a time window that includes the approximate time of the explosion experiments, which we term postdictive models. We build two versions of the postdictive models for each SPE event: one that is based solely on the regional scaled observations, and one that is based on both regional scaled observations combined with on-site observations obtained by a weather sonde released at the time of the SPE. We then invert the observed data set three times, once for each atmospheric model type. We find that the estimated seismoacoustic source functions are relatively similar in waveform shape regardless of which atmospheric model that we used to construct the Green’s functions. However, we find that the amplitude of the estimated source functions is systematically dependent on the atmospheric model type: using the predictive atmospheric models to invert the data generally yields estimated source functions that are larger in amplitude than those estimated using the postdictive models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic Characterization of the Nevada National Security Site Using Joint Body Wave, Surface Wave, and Gravity Inversion

As a part of the series of Source Physics Experiments (SPE) conducted on the Nevada National Security Site in southern Nevada, we have developed a local–to–regional scale seismic velocity model of the site and surrounding area. Accurate earth models are critical for modeling sources like the SPE to investigate the role of earth structure on the propagation and scattering of seismic waves. We combine seismic body waves, surface waves, and gravity data in a joint inversion procedure to solve for the optimal 3D seismic compressional and shear–wave velocity structures and earthquake locations subject to model smoothness constraints. Earthquakes, which are relocated as part of the inversion, provide P – and S –body–wave absolute and differential travel times. Active source experiments in the region augment this dataset with P –body–wave absolute times and surface–wave dispersion data. Dense ground–based gravity observations and surface–wave dispersion derived from ambient noise in the region fill in many areas where body–wave data are sparse. In general, the top 1–2 km of the surface is relatively poorly sampled by the body waves alone. However, the addition of gravity and surface waves to the body–wave dataset greatly enhances structural resolvability in the near surface. Here, we discuss the methodology we developed for simultaneous inversion of these disparate data types and briefly describe results of the inversion in the context of previous work in the region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Building and Running TDAAPS Models: Nudged WRF Hindcasts

This work is a follow-on guide to running the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from Aur et al, (2018), Building and Running 1 DAAPS Models: IFRF Postdictions. This guide details running WRF in a nudged configuration, where the u and v wind components, temperature, and moisture within a specified spatial and temporal window, are adjusted towards the observations, radiosonde observations in this case, using WRF's observation nudging technique. The primary modification to this methodology from Aur et al. (2018), is the use of the OBSGRID program to generate the nudging files and the updates to the namelist.input file. These steps, combined with those outlined in Aur et al. (2018), will generate a nudged WRF hindcast (or postdiction) simulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Azimuthally Dependent Seismic-Wave Coherence at the Source Physics Experiment Large-N Array

Abstract We report on azimuthally dependent seismic scattering at the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) using the large-N array. The large-N array recorded the seismic wavefield produced by the SPE-5 buried chemical explosion, which occurred in April 2016 at the Nevada National Security Site, U.S.A. By selecting a subset of vertical-component geophones from the large-N array, we formed 10 linear arrays, with different nominal source–receiver azimuths as well as six 2D arrays. For each linear array, we analyze wavefield coherency as a function of frequency and interstation distance. For both the P arrival and post-P arrivals, the coherency is higher in the northeast propagation direction, which is consistent with the strike of the steeply dipping Boundary fault adjacent to the northwest side of the large-N array. Conventional array analysis using a suite of 2D arrays indicates that the presence of the fault may help explain the azimuthal dependence of the seismic-wave coherency for all wave types. This fault, which separates granite from alluvium, may be acting as a vertically oriented refractor and/or waveguide.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan (Version 2.4c)

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗