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Price, Colin

Publications and source records attributed to Price, Colin.

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the GISS GCM: Tropospheric Chemistry Model Description and Evaluation - Part 1

A tropospheric chemistry module has been developed for use within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to study interactions between chemistry and climate change. The model uses a simplified chemistry scheme based on CO-NOx-CH4 chemistry, and also includes a parameterization for emissions of isoprene, the most important non-methane hydrocarbon. The model reproduces present day annual cycles and mean distributions of key trace gases fairly well, based on extensive comparisons with available observations. Examining the simulated change between present day and pre-industrial conditions, we find that the model has a similar response to that seen in other simulations. It shows a 45% increase in the global tropospheric ozone burden, within the 25% - 57% range seen in other studies. Annual average zonal mean ozone increases by more than 125% at Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes near the surface. Comparison of model runs that allow the calculated ozone to interact with the GCM's radiation and meteorology with those that do not shows only minor differences for ozone. The common usage of ozone fields that are not calculated interactively seems to be adequate to simulate both the present day and the pre-industrial ozone distributions. However, use of coupled chemistry does alter the change in tropospheric oxidation capacity, enlarging the overall decrease in OH concentrations from the pre-industrial to the present by about 10% (-5.3% global annual average in uncoupled mode, -5.9% in coupled mode). This indicates that there may be systematic biases in the simulation of the pre-industrial to present day decrease in the oxidation capacity of the troposphere (though a 10% difference is well within the total uncertainty). Global annual average radiative forcing from pre-industrial to present day ozone change is 0.32 W/sq m. The forcing seems to be increased by about 10% when the chemistry is coupled to the GCM. Forcing values greater than 0.8 W/sq m are seen over large areas of the United States, Southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Arctic. Radiative forcing is greater than 1.5 W/sq m over parts of these areas during Northern summer Though there are local differences, the radiative forcing is overall in good agreement with the results of other modeling studies in both its magnitude and spatial distribution, demonstrating that the simplified chemistry is adequate for climate studies.

Shindell, Drew T.

The impact of a 2 X CO2 climate on lightning-caused fires

Future climate change could have significant repercussions for lightning-caused wildfires. Two empirical fire models are presented relating the frequency of lightning fires and the area burned by these fires to the effective precipitation and the frequency of thunderstorm activity. One model deals with the seasonal variations in lightning fires, while the second model deals with the interannual variations of lightning fires. These fire models are then used with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model to investigate possible changes in fire frequency and area burned in a 2 X CO2 climate. In the United States, the annual mean number of lightning fires increases by 44%, while the area burned increases by 78%. On a global scale, the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in untouched tropical ecosystems where few natural fires occur today.

Price, Colin

Modeling global lightning distributions in a general circulation model

A general circulation model (GCM) is used to model global lightning distributions and frequencies. Both total and cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies are modeled using parameterizations that relate the depth of convective clouds to lightning frequencies. The model's simulations of lightning distributions in time and space show good agreement with available observations. The model's annual mean climatology shows a global lightning frequency of 77 flashes per second, with cloud-to-ground lightning making up 25% of the total. The maximum lightning activity in the GCM occurs during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with approximately 91% of all lightning occurring over continental and coastal regions.

Price, Colin

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Price, Colin

Global surface temperatures and the atmospheric electrical circuit

To monitor future global temperature trends, it would be extremely useful if parameters nonlinearly related to surface temperature could be found, thereby amplifying any warming signal that may exist. Evidence that global thunderstorm activity is nonlinearly related to diurnal, seasonal and interannual temperature variations is presented. Since global thunderstorm activity is also well correlated with the earth's ionospheric potential, it appears that variations of ionospheric potential, that can be measured at a single location, may be able to supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The observations presented enable a prediction that a 1 percent increase in global surface temperatures may result in a 20 percent increase in ionospheric potential.

Price, Colin

What determines the cloud-to-ground lightning fraction in thunderstorms?

The ratio of intracloud lightning (IC) to cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) in thunderstorms is observed to vary with latitude. The reason frequently given for this behavior is that the height of the freezing level, and hence the negative charge center in thunderstorms, varies with latitude, resulting in higher ratios in the tropics compared with those in midlatitudes. This study shows that this hypothesis could well be incorrect. Analysis of cloud and lightning data indicates that the IC/CG ratio is linked to the thickness of the cold cloud region in thunderstorms (0 C to cloud top), rather than to the freezing level height.

Price, Colin

A simple lightning parameterization for calculating global lightning distributions

A simple parameterization has been developed to simulate global lightning distributions. Convective cloud top height is used as the variable in the parameterization, with different formulations for continental and marine thunderstorms. The parameterization has been validated using two lightning data sets: one global and one regional. In both cases the simulated lightning distributions and frequencies are in very good agreement with the observed lightning data. This parameterization could be used for global studies of lightning climatology; the earth's electric circuit; in general circulation models for modeling global lightning activity, atmospheric NO(x) concentrations, and perhaps forest fire distributions for both the present and future climate; and, possibly, even as a short-term forecasting aid.

Price, Colin

The effect of global warming on lightning frequencies

The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM is reported. Three sets of observations showing the relationship between lightning frequency and cloud top height are shown. Zonally averaged lightning frequency observed by satellite are compared with those calculated using the GISS GCM, and fair agreement is found. The change in lightning frequency for a double CO2 climate is calculated and found to be nearly 2.23 x 10 exp 6 extra lightning flashes per day.

Price, Colin