Engineering topics

Pruitt, David

Publications and source records attributed to Pruitt, David.

3 records

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative Performance Assessment of Proxy Apps and Parents (ECP Proxy App Project Milestone ADCD-504-9)

This report presents highlights of these efforts. Section 2 describes work that has been done to compare the performance of proxy applications on AMD MI60 vs. Nvidia V100 GPUs. So far only a small set of ECP proxies are running on AMD GPUs, but we will continue to expand this analysis as additional proxies become available. We find that although the MI60 and V100 have nearly the same measured memory bandwidth, memory bound proxy app kernels perform 20-30% worse on the MI60. Further work is needed to refine these comparisons to determine whether the root cause is due to differences in the hardware, software stack, platform specific optimization, or some combination of the three. Section 3 describes our continuing effort to find methods to accurately assess the similarity of proxies and parents. We have recently seen very encouraging results using a cosine similarity metric. This technique uses the angle between two vectors of hardware performance counters to characterize the similarity (or difference) between two applications or proxies. We show not only that several widely used proxies are highly similar to their parents, but also that they differ from non-related codes. We also show that cosine similarity can be used to identify gaps and redundancies in suites and even to gain insight into the effects of architectural differences between platforms. Our work on assessing the Exascale toolchain is ongoing. Our successes with performance measurement tools are evident from the data provided in this report. However, our assessments across the broader tool chain are still too incomplete to provide a meaningful report at this time. We will continue to assess tools and work with vendors and third party developers as issues are identified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗