Engineering topics

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)

Publications and source records attributed to Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440).

At least 19 records

DOE OSTI2025

Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U999) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U999 over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms−1. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Re-examining urban rainfall enhancement over North America

Abstract Quantifying intensification/suppression of precipitation over urban areas relative to their rural surroundings can inform efforts to reduce urban flooding. Few studies have systematically addressed whether urban areas exhibit a higher/lower probability of precipitation and/or higher/lower annual total precipitation and/or intensification/weakening of intense precipitation events relative to nearby rural areas across a range of hydroclimatic conditions and urban contexts. Here we address this literature gap using the IMERG V07 data set and analyses of rural and urban samples drawn from 47 conurbations across North America. Specifically, we quantify whether/how precipitation regimes over the urban grid cells differ from those in rural grid cells located 100–250 km from the city center and at a similar elevation. As in previous research, there is evidence that both the probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are typically higher in the urban grid cells. However, most conurbations have lower upper percentile precipitation rates in the urban sample and lower median precipitation rates above the 95th percentile than are present in samples drawn from rural grid cells. Thus, these conurbations are not, on average, intensifying high-magnitude precipitation events over urban grid cells. Further, the total volume of water accumulated at the surface during events of equivalent duration is not systematically higher over the urban areas, and 20 year return period values of 30 min and wettest pentad precipitation are also not systematically higher over the urban areas. The nature of urban modification of precipitation is a strong function of the prevailing hydroclimate. For example, the heaviest rainfall periods are enhanced over urban grid cells within regional hydroclimates where the overall probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are low. Conversely, there is evidence for urban suppression of the highest percentile precipitation rates in wetter hydroclimates.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Variability in Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion

Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) reduces energy production and increases wind energy operation and maintenance costs. Degradation of the blade coating and ultimately damage to the underlying blade structure are caused by collisions of falling hydrometeors with rotating blades. The selection of optimal methods to mitigate/reduce LEE are critically dependent on the rates of coating fatigue accumulation at a given location and the time variance in the accumulation of material stresses. However, no such assessment currently exists for the United States of America (USA). To address this research gap, blade coating lifetimes at 883 sites across the USA are generated based on high-frequency (5-min) estimates of material fatigue derived using a mechanistic model and robust meteorological measurements. Results indicate blade coating failure at some sites in as few as 4 years, and that the frequency and intensity of material stresses are both highly episodic and spatially varying. Time series analyses indicate that up to one-third of blade coating lifetime is exhausted in just 360 5-min periods in the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Conversely, sites in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) exhibit the same level of coating lifetime depletion in over three times as many time periods. Thus, it may be more cost-effective to use wind turbine deregulation (erosion-safe mode) for damage reduction and blade lifetime extension in the SGP, while the application of blade leading edge protective measures may be more appropriate in the PNW. Annual total precipitation and mean wind speed are shown to be poor predictors of blade coating lifetime, re-emphasizing the need for detailed modeling studies such as that presented herein.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗

DOE OSTI2024

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Abstract. A 15-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional simulations of the fast-moving and destructive derecho of 29–30 June 2012 that impacted the northeastern urban corridor of the USA is presented. This event generated 1100 reports of damaging winds, generated significant wind gusts over an extensive area of up to 500 000 km2, caused several fatalities, and resulted in widespread loss of electrical power. Extreme events such as this are increasingly being used within pseudo-global-warming experiments to examine the sensitivity of historical, societally important events to global climate non-stationarity and how they may evolve as a result of changing thermodynamic and dynamic contexts. As such it is important to examine the fidelity with which such events are described in hindcast experiments. The regional simulations presented herein are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting ensemble is used to explore simulation fidelity relative to observations for wind gust magnitudes, spatial scales of convection (as is manifest in high composite reflectivity, cREF), and both rainfall and hail production as a function of model configuration (microphysics parameterization, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), start date, use of nudging, compiler choice, damping, and number of vertical levels). We also examine the degree to which each ensemble member differs with respect to key mesoscale drivers of convective systems (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) and critical manifestations of deep convection, e.g., vertical velocities, cold-pool generation, and how those properties relate to the correct characterization of the associated atmospheric hazards (wind gusts and hail). Use of a double-moment, seven-class scheme with number concentrations for all species (including hail and graupel) results in the greatest fidelity of model-simulated wind gusts and convective structure to the observations of this event. All ensemble members, however, fail to capture the intensity of the event in terms of the spatial extent of convection and the production of high near-surface wind gusts. We further show very high sensitivity to the LBCs employed and specifically that simulation fidelity is higher for simulations nested within ERA-Interim compared to ERA5. Excess convective available potential energy (CAPE) in all ensemble members after the derecho passage leads to excess production of convective cells, wind gusts, cREF > 40 dBZ, and precipitation during a frontal passage on the subsequent day. This event proved very challenging to forecast in real time and to reproduce in the 15-member hindcast simulation ensemble presented here. Future work could examine if simulations with other initial and lateral boundary conditions can achieve greater fidelity.

Shepherd, Tristan (ORCID:0000000186276419)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Overview of preparation for the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN)

The American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN) is a multi-institutional field campaign focused on gathering critical observations of wind farm–atmosphere interactions. These interactions are responsible for a large portion of the uncertainty in wind plant modeling tools that are used to represent wind plant performance both prior to construction and during operation and can negatively impact wind energy profitability. The AWAKEN field campaign will provide data for validation, ultimately improving modeling and lowering these uncertainties. The field campaign is designed to address seven testable hypotheses through the analysis of the observations collected by numerous instruments at 13 ground-based locations and on five wind turbines. The location of the field campaign in Northern Oklahoma was chosen to leverage existing observational facilities operated by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program in close proximity to five operating wind plants. The vast majority of the observations from the experiment are publicly available to researchers and industry members worldwide, which the authors hope will advance the state of the science for wind plants and lead to lower cost and increased reliability of wind energy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the compound hazard of freezing rain and wind gusts across CONUS

Abstract The co-occurrence of freezing rain, ice accumulation and wind gusts (FZG) poses a significant hazard to infrastructure and transportation. However, quantification of the frequency and intensity of FZG is challenged by the lack of direct icing measurements. In this work, we evaluate and then apply an energy balance model to high-frequency data collected during 2005–2022 to derive hourly ice accumulation at 883 stations across the contiguous USA. These estimates are combined with wind gust observations to compute time series of hourly FZG hazard magnitude using the Sperry–Piltz Ice Accumulation (SPIA) index. Results are evaluated using Storm Reports of damage and economic disruption. The hourly SPIA estimates are also used to (i) derive a geospatial atlas of the hazard including the 50 yr return period event intensities for each US state derived using superstations, and (ii) describe storylines of significant events in terms of meteorological drivers and socioeconomic impacts. The highest values of SPIA during the 18 yr study period occur in a region extending from the Southern Great Plains over the Midwest into the densely populated Northeast. States in these regions also have high 50 yr return period maximum radial ice accumulation of 3–5 cm and co-occurring wind gusts >30 ms −1 . These values are comparable to past estimates for the 500 yr event which may imply this hazard has been previously underestimated. This atlas can be used to inform optimal FZG hazard mitigation strategies for each state/region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power Production, Inter- and Intra-Array Wake Losses from the U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

There is an urgent need to develop accurate predictions of power production, wake losses and array–array interactions from multi-GW offshore wind farms in order to enable developments that maximize power benefits, minimize levelized cost of energy and reduce investment uncertainty. New, climatologically representative simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are presented and analyzed to address these research needs with a specific focus on offshore wind energy lease areas along the U.S. east coast. These, uniquely detailed, simulations are designed to quantify important sources of wake-loss projection uncertainty. They sample across different wind turbine deployment scenarios and thus span the range of plausible installed capacity densities (ICDs) and also include two wind farm parameterizations (WFPs; Fitch and explicit wake parameterization (EWP)) and consider the precise WRF model release used. System-wide mean capacity factors for ICDs of 3.5 to 6.0 MWkm−2 range from 39 to 45% based on output from Fitch and 50 to 55% from EWP. Wake losses are 27–37% (Fitch) and 11–19% (EWP). The discrepancy in CF and wake losses from the two WFPs derives from two linked effects. First, EWP generates a weaker ‘deep array effect’ within the largest wind farm cluster (area of 3675 km2), though both parameterizations indicate substantial within-array wake losses. If 15 MW wind turbines are deployed at an ICD of 6 MWkm−2 the most heavily waked wind turbines generate an average of only 32–35% of the power of those that experience the freestream (undisturbed) flow. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for saturation of the resource. The wind power density (electrical power generation per unit of surface area) increases with ICD and lies between 2 and 3 Wm−2. Second, EWP also systematically generates smaller whole wind farm wakes. Sampling across all offshore wind energy lease areas and the range of ICD considered, the whole wind farm wake extent for a velocity deficit of 5% is 1.18 to 1.38 times larger in simulations with Fitch. Over three-quarters of the variability in normalized wake extents is attributable to variations in freestream wind speeds, turbulent kinetic energy and boundary layer depth. These dependencies on meteorological parameters allow for the development of computationally efficient emulators of wake extents from Fitch and EWP.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative comparison of power production and power quality onshore and offshore: a case study from the eastern United States

Abstract. A major issue in quantifying potential power generation from prospective wind energy sites is the lack of observations from heights relevant to modern wind turbines, particularly for offshore where blade tip heights are projected to increase beyond 250 m. We present analyses of uniquely detailed data sets from lidar (light detection and ranging) deployments in New York State and on two buoys in the adjacent New York Bight to examine the relative power generation potential and power quality at these on- and offshore locations. Time series of 10 min wind power production are computed from these wind speeds using the power curve from the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference wind turbine. Given the relatively close proximity of these lidar deployments, they share a common synoptic-scale meteorology and seasonal variability with lowest wind speeds in July and August. Time series of power production from the on- and offshore location are highly spatially correlated with the Spearman rank correlation coefficient dropping below 0.4 for separation distances of approximately 350 km. Hence careful planning of on- and offshore wind farms (i.e., separation of major plants by > 350 km) can be used reduce the system-wide probability of low wind energy power production. Energy density at 150 m height at the offshore buoys is more than 40 % higher, and the Weibull scale parameter is 2 m s−1 higher than at all but one of the land sites. Analyses of power production time series indicate annual energy production is almost twice as high for the two offshore locations. Further, electrical power production quality is higher from the offshore sites that exhibit a lower amplitude of diurnal variability, plus a lower probability of wind speeds below the cut-in and of ramp events of any magnitude. Despite this and the higher resource, the estimated levelized cost of energy (LCoE) is higher from the offshore sites mainly due to the higher infrastructure costs. Nonetheless, the projected LCoE is highly competitive from all sites considered.

Foody, Rebecca↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Annual Electricity Production and Levelized Cost of Energy from the US East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

Offshore wind energy development along the East Coast of the US is proceeding quickly as a result of large areas with an excellent wind resource, low water depths and proximity to large electricity markets. Careful planning of wind turbine deployments in these offshore wind energy lease areas (LA) is required to maximize power output and to minimize wake losses between neighboring wind farms as well as those internal to each wind farm. Here, we used microscale wind modeling with two wake parameterizations to evaluate the potential annual energy production (AEP) and wake losses in the different LA areas, and we developed and applied a levelized cost of energy (LCoE) model to quantify the impact of different wind turbine layouts on LCoE. The modeling illustrated that if the current suite of LA is subject to deployment of 15 MW wind turbines at a spacing of 1.85 km, they will generate 4 to 4.6% of total national electricity demand. The LCoE ranged from $68 to $102/MWh depending on the precise layout selected, which is cost competitive with many other generation sources. The scale of the wind farms that will be deployed greatly exceed those currently operating and mean that wake-induced power losses are considerable but still relatively poorly constrained. AEP and LCoE exhibited significant dependence on the precise wake model applied. For the largest LA, the AEP differed by over 10% depending on the wake model used, leading to a $10/MWh difference in LCoE for the wind turbine layout with 1.85 km spacing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

From Hydrometeor Size Distribution Measurements to Projections of Wind Turbine Blade Leading-Edge Erosion

Wind turbine blade leading-edge erosion (LEE) is a cause of increased operation and maintenance costs and decreased annual energy production. Thus, detailed, site-specific quantification of likely erosion conditions are critically needed to inform wind plant owner/operator decisions regarding mitigation strategies. Estimating the damage potential at a wind plant site requires accurate measurement of precipitation intensity, phase, droplet size distributions, wind speeds and their joint statistics. The current work quantifies the effect of disdrometer type on the characterization of LEE potential at a site in the US Southern Great Plains. using observations from three co-located disdrometers (an optical, an impact and a video disdrometer), along with hub-height wind-speed observations from a Doppler lidar and two LEE models: a kinetic energy model and the Springer model. Estimates of total kinetic energy of hydrometeor impacts over the four-year study period vary by as much as 38%, and coating lifetime derived from accumulated distance-to-failure estimates from the Springer model differ by an even greater amount, depending on disdrometer type. Damage potential at this site is concentrated in time, with 50% of impact kinetic energy occurring in 6–12 h per year, depending on which set of disdrometer observations is used. Rotor-speed curtailment during the most erosive 0.1–0.2% of 10 min periods is found to increase blade lifetimes and lead to the lowest levelized cost of energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated Quantification of Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion from Field Images

Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion is a major source of power production loss and early detection benefits optimization of repair strategies. Two machine learning (ML) models are developed and evaluated for automated quantification of the areal extent, morphology and nature (deep, shallow) of damage from field images. The supervised ML model employs convolutional neural networks (CNN) and learns features (specific types of damage) present in an annotated set of training images. The unsupervised approach aggregates pixel intensity thresholding with calculation of pixel-by-pixel shadow ratio (PTS) to independently identify features within images. The models are developed and tested using a dataset of 140 field images. The images sample across a range of blade orientation, aspect ratio, lighting and resolution. Each model (CNN v PTS) is applied to quantify the percent area of the visible blade that is damaged and classifies the damage into deep or shallow using only the images as input. Both models successfully identify approximately 65% of total damage area in the independent images, and both perform better at quantifying deep damage. The CNN is more successful at identifying shallow damage and exhibits better performance when applied to the images after they are preprocessed to a common blade orientation.

Aird, Jeanie A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Drivers of Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion: Review and Recommendations for Future Research

Leading edge erosion (LEE) of wind turbine blades causes decreased aerodynamic performance leading to lower power production and revenue and increased operations and maintenance costs. LEE is caused primarily by materials stresses when hydrometeors (rain and hail) impact on rotating blades. The kinetic energy transferred by these impacts is a function of the precipitation intensity, droplet size distributions (DSD), hydrometeor phase and the wind turbine rotational speed which in turn depends on the wind speed at hub-height. Hence, there is a need to better understand the hydrometeor properties and the joint probability distributions of precipitation and wind speeds at prospective and operating wind farms in order to quantify the potential for LEE and the financial efficacy of LEE mitigation measures. However, there are relatively few observational datasets of hydrometeor DSD available for such locations. Here, we analyze six observational datasets from spatially dispersed locations and compare them with existing literature and assumed DSD used in laboratory experiments of material fatigue. We show that the so-called Best DSD being recommended for use in whirling arm experiments does not represent the observational data. Neither does the Marshall Palmer approximation. We also use these data to derive and compare joint probability distributions of drivers of LEE; precipitation intensity (and phase) and wind speed. We further review and summarize observational metrologies for hydrometeor DSD, provide information regarding measurement uncertainty in the parameters of critical importance to kinetic energy transfer and closure of data sets from different instruments. A series of recommendations are made about research needed to evolve towards the required fidelity for a priori estimates of LEE potential.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring ENSO-Induced Anomalies over North America in Historical and Future Climate Simulations That Use HadGEM2-ESM Output to Drive WRF

Projected changes to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate mode have been explored using global Earth system models (ESMs). Regional expressions of such changes have yet to be fully advanced and may require the use of regional downscaling. Here, we employ regional climate modeling (RCM) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at convection-permitting resolution and nested in output from the HadGEM2 ESM. We quantify ENSO teleconnections to temperature and precipitation anomalies in historical and future climate scenarios over eastern North America. Two paired simulations are run, a strong El Niño (positive ENSO phase) and a weak La Niña (negative ENSO phase), for the historical and future years. The HadGEM2 direct output and HadGEM2-WRF simulation output are compared to the anomalies derived from the NOAA ENSO Climate Normals dataset. The near-surface temperature and precipitation differences by ENSO phase, as represented by the HadGEM2-WRF historical simulations, show a poor degree of association with the NOAA ENSO Climate Normals, in part because of the large biases in the HadGEM2 model. Downscaling with the WRF model does improve the agreement with the observations, and large discrepancies remain. The model chain HadGEM2-WRF reverses the sign of the ENSO phase response over eastern North America under simulations of the future climate with high greenhouse gas forcing, but due to the poor agreement with the NOAA ENSO Climate Normals it is difficult to assign confidence to this prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occurrence of Low-Level Jets over the Eastern U.S. Coastal Zone at Heights Relevant to Wind Energy

Two years of high-resolution simulations conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are used to characterize the frequency, intensity and height of low-level jets (LLJ) over the U.S. Atlantic coastal zone. Meteorological conditions and the occurrence and characteristics of LLJs are described for (i) the centroids of thirteen of the sixteen active offshore wind energy lease areas off the U.S. east coast and (ii) along two transects extending east from the U.S. coastline across the northern lease areas (LA). Flow close to the nominal hub-height of wind turbines is predominantly northwesterly and southwesterly and exhibits pronounced seasonality, with highest wind speeds in November, and lowest wind speeds in June. LLJs diagnosed using vertical profiles of modeled wind speeds from approximately 20 to 530 m above sea level exhibit highest frequency in LA south of Massachusetts, where LLJs are identified in up to 12% of hours in June. LLJs are considerably less frequent further south along the U.S. east coast and outside of the summer season. LLJs frequently occur at heights that intersect the wind turbine rotor plane, and at wind speeds within typical wind turbine operating ranges. LLJs are most frequent, intense and have lowest core heights under strong horizontal temperature gradients and lower planetary boundary layer heights.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Region-Based Convolutional Neural Network for Wind Turbine Wake Characterization in Complex Terrain

We present a proof of concept of wind turbine wake identification and characterization using a region-based convolutional neural network (CNN) applied to lidar arc scan images taken at a wind farm in complex terrain. We show that the CNN successfully identifies and characterizes wakes in scans with varying resolutions and geometries, and can capture wake characteristics in spatially heterogeneous fields resulting from data quality control procedures and complex background flow fields. The geometry, spatial extent and locations of wakes and wake fragments exhibit close accord with results from visual inspection. The model exhibits a 95% success rate in identifying wakes when they are present in scans and characterizing their shape. To test model robustness to varying image quality, we reduced the scan density to half the original resolution through down-sampling range gates. This causes a reduction in skill, yet 92% of wakes are still successfully identified. When grouping scans by meteorological conditions and utilizing the CNN for wake characterization under full and half resolution, wake characteristics are consistent with a priori expectations for wake behavior in different inflow and stability conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

WRF-simulated low-level jets over Iowa: characterization and sensitivity studies

Abstract. Output from 6 months of high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed to characterize local low-level jets (LLJs) over Iowa for winter and spring in the contemporary climate. Low-level jets affect rotor plane aerodynamic loading, turbine structural loading and turbine performance, and thus accurate characterization and identification are pertinent. Analyses using a detection algorithm wherein the wind speed above and below the jet maximum must be below 80 % of the jet wind speed within a vertical window of approximately 20–530 m a.g.l. (above ground level) indicate the presence of an LLJ in at least one of the 14 700 4 km×4 km grid cells over Iowa on 98 % of nights. Nocturnal LLJs are most frequently associated with stable stratification and low turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence are more frequent during the winter months. The spatiotemporal mean LLJ maximum (jet core) wind speed is 9.55 m s−1, and the mean height is 182 m. Locations of high LLJ frequency and duration across the state are seasonally varying, with a mean duration of 3.5 h. The highest frequency occurs in the topographically complex northwest of the state in winter and in the flatter northeast of the state in spring. Sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to the (i) LLJ definition and (ii) vertical resolution at which the WRF output is sampled is examined. LLJ definitions commonly used in the literature are considered in the first sensitivity analysis. These sensitivity analyses indicate that LLJ characteristics are highly variable with definition. Use of different definitions identifies both different frequencies of LLJs and different LLJ events. Further, when the model output is down-sampled to lower vertical resolution, the mean jet core wind speed height decreases, but spatial distributions of regions of high frequency and duration are conserved. Implementation of a polynomial interpolation to extrapolate down-sampled output to full-resolution results in reduced sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to down-sampling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗