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Ramaswamy, V.

Publications and source records attributed to Ramaswamy, V..

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2×CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work.

Anthropocene↗

Spectrally Resolved Flux Derived from Collocated AIRS and CERES Observations and its Application in Model Validation: Clear-Sky Over the Tropic Oceans - Part I

Spectrally resolved outgoing IR flux, the integrand of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), has its unique value in evaluating model simulations. Here we describe an algorithm of deriving such clear-sky outgoing spectral flux through the whole IR region from the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Clouds & the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) measurements over the tropical oceans. Based on the scene types and corresponding angular distribution models (ADMs) used in the CERES Single Satellite Footprint (SSF) dataset, spectrally-dependent ADMs are developed and used to estimate the spectral flux at each AIRS channel. A multivariate linear prediction scheme is then used to estimate spectral fluxes at frequencies not covered by the AIRS instrument. The whole algorithm is validated using synthetic spectra as well as the CERES OLR measurements. Using the GFDL AM2 model simulation as a case study, the application of the derived clear-sky outgoing spectral flux in model evaluation is illustrated. By comparing the observed and simulated spectral flux in 2004, compensating errors in the simulated OLR from different absorption bands can be revealed, so does the errors from frequencies within a given absorption band. Discrepancies between the simulated and observed spatial distributions and seasonal evolutions of the spectral fluxes at different spectral ranges are further discussed. The methodology described in this study can be applied to other surface types as well as cloudy-sky observations and corresponding model evaluations.

Huang, Xianglei↗

Radiative Forcing by Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases: Estimates from Climate Models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

The radiative effects from increased concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) represent the most significant and best understood anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The most comprehensive tools for simulating past and future climates influenced by WMGHGs are fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Because of the importance of WMGHGs as forcing agents it is essential that AOGCMs compute the radiative forcing by these gases as accurately as possible. We present the results of a radiative transfer model intercomparison between the forcings computed by the radiative parameterizations of AOGCMs and by benchmark line-by-line (LBL) codes. The comparison is focused on forcing by CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, and the increased H2O expected in warmer climates. The models included in the intercomparison include several LBL codes and most of the global models submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In general, the LBL models are in excellent agreement with each other. However, in many cases, there are substantial discrepancies among the AOGCMs and between the AOGCMs and LBL codes. In some cases this is because the AOGCMs neglect particular absorbers, in particular the near-infrared effects of CH4 and N2O, while in others it is due to the methods for modeling the radiative processes. The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. We quantify these differences and discuss the implications for interpreting variations in forcing and response across the multimodel ensemble of AOGCM simulations assembled for the IPCC AR4.

Collins, W. D.↗

China as an Evolving Metro-Agro-Plex (China-MAP)

The one-year NASA-funded project was implemented to complete the analyses and model-simulations undertaken under the auspices of the 3-year research effort supported by NASA as an Interdisciplinary Earth System Science Investigation (IDS) entitled: China As An Evolving Metro-Agro-Plex (China-MAP). The primary goal of China-MAP was to assess the effects of economic development and the regional environmental changes it engenders upon agriculture in China. The project was carried out as part of the Sino-U.S. Science and Technology Protocol in the Atmospheric Sciences, an official government-to-government agreement that establishes the parameters for joint research projects between the two nations in the atmospheric sciences. The NASA-funded portion of the project focused on the development and application of a regional coupled climate/chemical transport model for East Asia (i.e., RegChem-CM). The funds provided under the subject 1-year project were used to: (1) complete specific investigations undertaken by the China-MAP Science Team using the Reg-Chem-CM expended; and (2) document the results of these and other China-MAP investigations in the peer-reviewed literature. A summary of these specific investigations in provided.

Chameides, William L.↗

Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Observations and Model Simulations

This paper reviews observations of stratospheric temperatures that have been made over a period of several decades. Those observed temperatures have been used to assess variations and trends in stratospheric temperatures. A wide range of observation datasets have been used, comprising measurements by radiosonde (1940s to the present), satellite (1979 - present), lidar (1979 - present) and rocketsonde (periods varying with location, but most terminating by about the mid-1990s). In addition, trends have also been assessed from meteorological analyses, based on radiosonde and/or satellite data, and products based on assimilating observations into a general circulation model. Radiosonde and satellite data indicate a cooling trend of the annual-mean lower stratosphere since about 1980. Over the period 1979-1994, the trend is 0.6K/decade. For the period prior to 1980, the radiosonde data exhibit a substantially weaker long-term cooling trend. In the northern hemisphere, the cooling trend is about 0.75K/decade in the lower stratosphere, with a reduction in the cooling in mid-stratosphere (near 35 km), and increased cooling in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 K per decade at 50 km). Model simulations indicate that the depletion of lower stratospheric ozone is the dominant factor in the observed lower stratospheric cooling. In the middle and upper stratosphere both the well-mixed greenhouse gases (such as CO) and ozone changes contribute in an important manner to the cooling.

Ramaswamy, V.↗

Solar Absorption in Cloudy Atmospheres

The theoretical computations used to compute spectral absorption of solar radiation are discussed. Radiative properties relevant to the cloud absorption problem are presented and placed in the context of radiative forcing. Implications for future measuring programs and the effect of horizontal inhomogeneities are discussed.

Harshvardhan↗

Evolution of polar stratospheric clouds during the Antarctic winter

The occurrence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs), initially inferred from satellite measurements of solar extinction, have now also been noted by the recent scientific expeditions in the Antarctic. The presence of such clouds in the Antarctic has been postulated to play a significant role in the depletion of ozone during the transition from winter to spring. The mechanisms suggested involve both dynamical and chemical processes which, explicity or implicitly, are associated with the ice particles constituting the PSCs. It is, thus, both timely and necessary to investigate the evolution of these clouds and ascertain the nature and magnitude of their influences on the state of the Antarctic stratosphere. To achieve these objectives, a detailed microphysical model of the processes governing the growth and sublimation of ice particles in the polar stratosphere was developed, based on the investigations of Ramaswamy and Detwiler. The present studies focus on the physical processes that occur at temperatures below those required for the onset of ice deposition from the vapor phase. Once these low temperatures are attained, the deposition of water vapor onto nucleation particles becomes extremely significant. First, the factors governing the magnitude of growth and the growth rate of ice particles at various altitudes are examined. Second, the ice phase mechanisms are examined in the context of a column model with altitudes ranging from 100 to 5 mb pressure levels. The column microphysical model was used to perform simulations of the cloud evolution, using the observed daily temperatures. The effect due to the growth of the particles on the radiation fields are also investigated using a one dimensional radiative transfer model. Specifically, the perturbations in the longwave cooling and that in the shortwave heating for the late winter/early spring time period are analyzed.

Ramaswamy, V.↗