The nuclear network: multiplex network analysis for interconnected systems
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Reddie, Andrew W..
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What can we learn from the Peloponnesian War that will help us deal with the intersection of cyber and nuclear conflict? What does World War I teach us about the role of nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons in warfare? Here, the short answer to both questions is—probably not much. While extensive scholarship on nuclear warfare and strategy exists, empirical data on the impact of emerging technologies such as cyber weaponry, advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance tools, and precision-guided munitions are lacking. Here, given the importance of policy-relevant research to equip decision-makers with tools to understand nuclear deterrence and reduce the likelihood of nuclear war, the scarcity of data available to analysts remains a critical gap.
What can we learn from the Peloponnesian War that will help us deal with the intersection of cyber and nuclear conflict? What does World War I teach us about the role of nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons in warfare? The short answer to both questions is—probably not much. While extensive scholarship on nuclear warfare and strategy exists, empirical data on the impact of emerging technologies such as cyber weaponry, advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance tools, and precision-guided munitions are lacking. Here, given the importance of policy-relevant research to equip decision-makers with tools to understand nuclear deterrence and reduce the likelihood of nuclear war, the scarcity of data available to analysts remains a critical gap.
Over the past century, and particularly since the outset of the Cold War, wargames (interactive simulations used to evaluate aspects of tactics, operations, and strategy) have become an integral means for militaries and policy-makers to evaluate how strategic decisions are made related to nuclear weapons strategy and international security. Furthermore, these methods have also been applied beyond the military realm, to examine phenomena as varied as elections, government policy, international trade, and supply-chain mechanics. Today, a renewed focus on wargaming combined with access to sophisticated and inexpensive drag-and-drop digital game development frameworks and new cloud computing architectures have democratized the ability to enable massive multiplayer gaming experiences. With the integration of simulation tools and experimental methods from a variety of social science disciplines, a science-based experimental gaming approach has the potential to transform the insights generated from gaming by creating human-derived, large-n datasets for replicable, quantitative analysis. In the following, we outline challenges associated with contemporary simulation and wargaming tools, investigate where scholars have searched for game data, and explore the utility of new experimental gaming and data analysis methods in both policy-making and academic settings.
This comparative project evaluates the role of firms, governments, and other key stakeholders in the rise of industrial policy in important states in the cybersecurity industry. In particular, we focus on the US, China, Taiwan, Japan, the EU and key European states. Our goals are as follows: 1) to examine the motivation for government promotion of the cybersecurity industry; 2) to inventory existing measures employed by these countries; 3) to understand the driving forces of cybersecurity industrial policy in these countries; and 4) to examine the likely conflicts that will arise from the competitive pursuit of such industrial policies and how they might possibly be resolved through international cooperation. Lastly, we provide an analytical framework to serve as the structure for this project by drawing on a variety of theoretical approaches to understand industrial policy.
In the future, it may be possible for states to construct nuclear weapons with alternative effects that are optimized for specific military purposes. These nuclear weapon concepts might employ features such as enhanced radiation outputs (ER), electromagnetic pulse (EMP), or other approaches such as high-precision, low-yield systems (HPLY) that reduce collateral damage, but improve lethality to targets. Some have speculated that such weapons could have the effect of lowering the threshold of use for nuclear weapons by reducing the negative incentives to their use or by providing new military applications for nuclear weapons. A nuclear arsenal that includes weapons with alternate effect regimes may also have an impact on the calculus of escalation in a conflict scenario. This project of the University of California, Berkeley (UCB), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) investigates the potential impacts of alternate nuclear weapons effects regimes on deterrence and strategic stability using experimental gaming methods. The purpose of this document is to capture the research questions, assumptions, scenario characteristics, and other details that provide the framework used to address this challenge presented during the first workshop discussion hosted by the Center for Global Security Research at LLNL with subject matter experts from government, academia, and the private sector. The report also summarizes feedback from participants. Topics discussed during the workshop included alternative effects of nuclear weapons, existing approaches for modeling and measuring conflict, and the state of the art in experimental game design.