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Rhodes, Greg

Publications and source records attributed to Rhodes, Greg.

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Best Practices

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is a methodology that can improve success rates for geothermal exploration drilling, thus reducing the costs of geothermal projects while facilitating development in new areas. It was originally developed for the oil and gas industry, but has been adapted for discovering geothermal resources over the last decade. The geothermal PFA methodology involves systematically screening a set geographic area for promising qualities typically related to the presence of heat, permeability, and fluid. Successful application of PFA can identify hidden hydrothermal systems. From 2014 to 2021 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) supported the development of PFA for geothermal resources through awards to 11 research teams across the country. The goal of these projects was to advance and adapt PFA for geothermal exploration to produce regional-scale maps that reduce exploration uncertainty. This report is an outcome of the NREL-led PFA Retrospective project, which compiled, synthesized, analyzed the results of GTO's geothermal PFA program. Ultimately, we find that these projects greatly advanced approaches to geothermal exploration and resulted in extensive new data and new discoveries of unrecognized geothermal systems. We used the results to distill best practices in this report and to provide guidance for future applications of geothermal PFA.

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Innovative Subsurface Learning and Hawaiian Exploration using Advanced Tomography (ISLAND HEAT) Phase 1 (Final Report)

The Innovative Subsurface Learning and Hawaiian Exploration using Advanced Tomography (ISLAND HEAT) project aims to leverage and enhance existing Hawai'i geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) results and validate a conceptual model-driven, optimized, least-cost exploration and geophysical suite at a proven geothermal field with known permeability, the Puna Geothermal Venture, located in the Lower East Rift Zone. The abundance of geophysical scrutinization before, during, and after the 2018 Kilauea eruption at and around the broader Puna system offers a rare opportunity to elucidate geophysical expressions within a dynamic magmatic rift setting. Development of the methodology continues with its application at a second prospective site identified by the PFA, Mauna Kea, which serves as confirmation of the integrated approach.

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2022 GETEM Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update: Preprint

The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is an essential tool for the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO) to understand the performance and cost of technologies it is seeking to improve. This detailed model is used for supply curve analyses, assessing the current economic feasibility and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of hydrothermal geothermal systems and EGS, and evaluating the potential impact of advanced geothermal technologies. GETEM can be used to estimate the performance and costs of currently available U.S. geothermal power systems. It is also used to estimate the costs of technologies 5 to 20 years in the future, given the direction of potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects. The model is intended to help GTO determine which proposed RD&D programs and projects might offer the most efficient improvement when using taxpayer funding. The model requires annual updates as well as revisions to reflect the current state of the art. Drilling costs are a significant portion of total geothermal development costs. The current GETEM drilling cost inputs rely on drilling data from 2009 and require an updated analysis of more recent data to ensure they remain representative of current technologies. An updated, more accurate understanding of costs could help the geothermal industry secure project development financing and investment funding and better allow the oil and gas (O&G) industry (both operators and service companies) weigh potential geothermal market participation and customization. This report details recent drilling improvements from the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) and O&G, comparing drilling performance and costs with values in GETEM, particularly the baseline drilling cost curves. Though drilling performance at FORGE has improved significantly, we did not find associated cost decreases that would justify lowering the GETEM baseline cost curves as of now.

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2022 GETEM Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update

The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is an essential tool for the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to understand the performance and cost of technologies it is seeking to improve. This detailed model is used for supply curve analyses, assessing the current economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of hydrothermal geothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), and evaluating the potential impact of advanced geothermal technologies. GETEM can be used to estimate the performance and costs of currently available U.S. geothermal power systems. It is also used to estimate the costs of technologies 5 to 20 years in the future, given the direction of potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects. The model is intended to help GTO determine which proposed RD&D programs and projects might offer the most efficient improvement when using taxpayer funding. The model requires annual updates as well as revisions to reflect the current state of the art. Drilling costs are a significant portion of total geothermal development costs. The current GETEM drilling cost inputs rely on drilling data from 2009 and require an updated analysis of more recent data to ensure they remain representative of current technologies. An updated, more accurate understanding of costs could help the geothermal industry secure project development financing and investment funding and better allow the oil and gas (O&G) industry (both operators and service companies) to weigh potential geothermal market participation and customization. This report details recent drilling improvements from the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) and the O&G sector, comparing drilling performance and costs with values in GETEM, particularly the baseline drilling cost curves. Although drilling performance at FORGE has improved significantly, we did not find associated cost decreases that would justify lowering the GETEM baseline cost curves at this time.

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Mining G.O.L.D. (Geothermal Opportunities Leveraged Through Data): Exploring Synergies Between the Geothermal and Mining Industries

This report analyzes potential collaborations between the geothermal and locatable mineral industries (focused on the portion of the Basin and Range Province within Nevada, United States of America). The objectives of this study included analyzing: 1. The type and quality of data collected by the locatable mineral industry to determine feasibility for geothermal resource exploration; 2. The regulatory pathways and potential barriers that could prevent development of geothermal resources discovered via a mining claim (and vice versa) in the United States; 3. The historical development of geothermal resources discovered via mineral exploration data in the United States and illustrations of co-located mining and geothermal power projects; 4. The value propositions for both the locatable mineral and the geothermal industries to collaborate. This article concludes that many of the data collected by the mining industry as part of locatable mineral exploration (e.g., copper, gold, lithium) would also be useful for identifying and developing previously unknown geothermal resources (and in some notable cases, already have led to geothermal resource development). In addition, for minimal costs, the mining industry could catalogue these data and potentially monetize the data itself or use the data in the future to develop a geothermal project. Leveraging these locatable mineral data to develop geothermal resources and/or co-located minerals and geothermal resources would represent significant cost savings when compared to developing geothermal resources under a business-as-usual scenario as well as compared to current generating technologies (e.g., diesel-powered generators) employed at remote mining operations. Ultimately, leveraging mining industry data, knowledge, and expertise serves to effectively expand the geothermal exploration workforce, increase the rate of geothermal resource discovery, and potentially reduce geothermal electricity's levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by 23%-29%.

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Analysis of Selected Publicly Available Geothermal Exploration Data Gaps

As part of a United States Department of Energy (DOE) supported retrospective analysis of DOE's Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) projects, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) compiled and analyzed publicly available geothermal exploration datasets to identify and highlight data gaps in areas prospective for hosting geothermal resources. The analysis was intended to understand the existing geographic coverage of selected datasets commonly utilized both by the PFA projects and geothermal developers during resource assessments including geologic mapping, temperature gradient drilling, and aeromagnetic, gravimetric, and lidar surveys. Results indicate that broad areas of the western United States estimated to have geothermal potential lack sufficient geologic and geophysical coverage necessary for even regional resource exploration. The study directly informed the recent Geoscience Data Acquisition for Western Nevada, or GeoDAWN - which united DOE's Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior to assist U.S. needs for energy and critical minerals. The study also has the potential to inform public investment in further data acquisition for characterization of the Earth both for geothermal and other natural resource assessments.

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2021 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Electricity Generation Technologies

Starting in 2015 NREL has presented the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) in an Excel workbook that contains detailed cost and performance data, both current and projected, for renewable and conventional technologies. The workbook includes a spreadsheet for each technology. This version of the workbook provides the final updates to data for the 2021 ATB. In 2019 and 2020, NREL has also provided selected data in Tableau workbooks and structured summary csv files. The data for 2015 - 2020 is located on https://data.nrel.gov. In 2021 and going forward, the data is cloud optimized and provided in the OEDI data lake. A website documents this and future data at https://atb.nrel.gov.

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Geothermal Data Gap Analysis Over the Western US

NREL, as part of the Play Fairway Analysis Retrospective, compiled and mapped publicly available geologic and geophysical data in relation to the 2008 USGS geothermal potential analysis. Included in this submission are maps displaying the publicly available data for LIDAR coverage, aeromagnetic coverage, gravity station locations, and geologic map coverage over the Western United States.

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Sedimentary Geothermal Resources in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas

The objectives of this project were to (1) perform a literature review of sedimentary geothermal resources, (2) identify data sources and develop data-collection methodologies that characterize selected resources, (3) screen sedimentary basins and formations for sedimentary geothermal potential, and (4) evaluate the technical feasibility of one or more selected locations. Numerous publications have characterized geothermal resources within sedimentary basins. A literature search reviewed publications describing resources located in Colorado, Louisiana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The most attractive resources have high temperature gradients, low drilling costs, and reservoir permeabilities greater than 10 millidarcies (mD). Prospects in Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah exhibit attractive characteristics and were chosen for further analysis. Sedimentary resources in Nevada and Utah are most attractive, followed by tested resources in Texas and untested resources in Colorado. The identified resources in Wyoming and Louisiana had lower geothermal gradients and were not evaluated. Reservoir modeling and techno-economic analysis were performed at Marys River Basin–North in Nevada. Geothermal energy production at this location is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging between 10 and 20 cents/kWh. Additional work may result in lower LCOE estimates at this location and at other attractive prospects in these three regions. The Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system of eastern Nevada and western Utah includes a lower carbonate aquifer unit, which has the potential for hosting both conduction- and convection-dominated geothermal systems. Mapping has identified lateral thickness variability expressed as a roughly 120–150-km-wide central corridor, which hosts the thickest and most continuous formations and extends from near Las Vegas north to the Idaho border. Purchase and analysis of privately held legacy seismic data could potentially compensate for the lack of sufficient data documenting measured depth to the lower carbonate aquifer unit. Multiple orogenies, extension episodes, and intrusive events have deformed and displaced the target formations of the lower carbonate aquifer unit. This structural complexity and potential for dipping reservoirs emphasizes the need for detailed geological, geophysical, and reservoir modeling. Heat flow within three Colorado sedimentary basins reviewed as part of this study was calculated in targeted studies by the Colorado Geologic Survey and Colorado School of Mines. These calculations are based on bottom-hole temperature data sets with significant limitations and some variability but produce values consistently higher than the global continental average of 65 mW/m2 for all three basins. Heat flow in the Raton Basin is the highest; however, permeability measurements from specific sedimentary formations with high heat flow have not been obtained. Promising formations for sedimentary geothermal systems were found in all three regions studied—Nevada-Utah, Colorado, and Texas. The next steps for developing sedimentary geothermal resources vary due to differences in available data and resource uncertainties. Additional scopes of work are recommended for identified basins in these three regions.

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Geothermal Flexibility Characteristics

This spreadsheet identifies various flexibility characteristics for flash and binary geothermal power plants which could potentially facilitate provision of grid services beyond bulk power generation. Characteristics are differentiated between resource characteristics such as metal concentration and plant characteristics such as flow rates of pumps used in flash vs. binary plants.

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