Engineering topics

Riahi, Keywan

Publications and source records attributed to Riahi, Keywan.

8 records

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures

THIS PAPER WAS PRIMARILY COMPLETED PRIOR TO THE AUTHOR JOINING PNNL AND NO DOE FUNDING WAS USED FOR THIS PAPER. In this work, we review how equity and justice issues in global climate mitigation scenarios are addressed within Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and propose a new research agenda to strengthen their integration in model development and application. We begin by examining prominent concerns at the science-policy interface. We introduce a typology of equity and justice limitations in climate mitigation scenarios, distinguishing among structural, methodological, and epistemological biases that shape what integrated assessment models can reveal at policy-relevant scales. Reflecting on these concerns, we propose a research agenda that describes new avenues of work and draws together distinct emerging initiatives. This agenda is based on the feasibility and depth of required interventions, from incremental improvements to structural reforms and alternative participatory approaches. Drawing on reflexive insights from integrated assessment practitioners, it addresses the operational challenges of translating justice concepts into metrics, including risks of reductionism, tokenism, and narrow definitions. Underlying this research agenda is a recognition that modeling communities must engage more critically with implicit assumptions in model design and use that have equity and justice implications. Achieving equitable climate futures will require transformative actions that integrate diverse justice concerns, advance sustainable development goals, and confront systemic inequities across both human and ecological dimensions. Although models will never capture all these aspects, they can be significantly enhanced to support more informed discussion and practical application. Our contribution proposes a way forward to achieving this goal.

Pachauri, Shonali↗

DOE OSTI2024

Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO 2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7

Scenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessment, new insights and the opportunity to address policy-relevant questions that would not be possible otherwise, for example, which impacts are unavoidable, which are reversible, what is a consistent remaining carbon budget to keep temperatures below a level and what would be a consistent route of action to achieve that goal. The AR6 builds on community frameworks that are developed to support a coherent use of scenarios across the assessment, yet their use in the assessment and the related timelines presented coordination challenges. From lessons within each Working Group (WG) assessment and the cross-WG experience, we present insights into the role of scenarios in future assessments, including the enhanced integration of impacts into scenarios, near-term information and community coordination efforts. Recommendations and opportunities are discussed for how scenarios can support strengthened consistency and policy relevance in the next IPCC assessment cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2°C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 Study on Short-Lived Climate Forcers: Introduction and Overview

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 inter-comparison study on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) focuses on black carbon (BC) and methane, two of the most important warming SLCFs. The potential impact on climate change of methane and BC-focused emission reductions in the transport and residential sectors were quantified using nine integrated assessment models and a simple climate model. These SLCF reductions reduced global temperatures by 0.18–0.26 °C in 2050 across the models for central climate parameters, with methane being the dominant contributor. The incremental impact of SLCF-focused reductions is much smaller when combined with a broader climate policy. Individual modeling groups examined the health benefits of air pollutant reductions, climate policy co-benefits, and quantified market impacts from air pollutant damages. Model structure and set-up impact on results are discussed along with areas for future work.

Smith, Steven J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparing Transformation Pathways Across Major Economies

This paper aims at providing an overview of the transformation pathways for the seven largest greenhouse-gas (GHG) emitting regions and countries in the world, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2oC as compared to pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the iterative process by which global integrated assessment models (IAMs) initiated discussions by suggesting boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for different regions and countries. The carbon budgets subsequently agreed upon were then used in eleven different regional and national energy-economy models and IAMs for deriving low-carbon pathways in line with a well-below-2oC world. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting regional and national pathways, and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them.

Schaeffer, Roberto↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO 2 eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossilfuel- dependent countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗