Engineering topics

Rice, Jennie S.

Publications and source records attributed to Rice, Jennie S..

4 records

DOE OSTI2026

Land-use and atmospheric shifts jointly amplify U.S. drought-driven crop losses

Agricultural drought (AD) poses a major threat to food security, yet its future risk remains uncertain under co-evolving atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories. Using an integrated, multi-sector modeling framework, we project AD risks for major crops across the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2055 under a range of plausible futures that capture thermodynamic changes and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) trajectories. Model projections reveal that drought-driven crop production losses increase sharply by nearly 60% for corn, 250% for wheat, and 135% for soybean relative to historical levels. The primary drivers of these increases, which include atmospheric shifts and LULCC, vary by region and crop type. LULCC acting as an important risk amplifier in regions experiencing cropland expansion into drought-prone regions, such as the Great Plains and northwestern U.S. Wheat exhibits the largest projected loss increases, a result that remains robust across scenarios. These findings highlight that interactions between atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories shape future agricultural drought risk and should be jointly considered to support effective adaptation and food-system planning.

Yao, Lili↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate-risk management

People around the world seek climate-risk information to guide their decisions. For instance, projections about future flood risk inform where households choose to live, how lenders manage credit risks, and which communities receive federal funding. Yet data limitations and fundamental validation challenges raise important concerns about the reliability of such projections. The principles of transparency and reusability help address these concerns by enabling scrutiny of assumptions and methods, development of foundational data and tools, and consistent application of evaluation standards. While there is ongoing debate about how much transparency commercial climate-risk services should provide, many expect non-commercial actors to lead the way on operationalizing transparency and reusability to fulfill their knowledge-building role in the climate-risk ecosystem. However, despite prominent success stories, we find a substantial gap between principles and practice: only four percent of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate-risk studies in recent years fully share their data and code despite this being a widely accepted minimum standard for transparency. We highlight low-cost measures that non-commercial researchers can take now to improve transparency and reusability. We also emphasize that transformative progress requires substantial investment, cross-sector collaboration, and careful consideration of tradeoffs, data rights, and multiple perspectives on equity. We hope this perspective accelerates both immediate actions and longer-term conversations to improve the ability of science to effectively support timely, evidence-based, and sound climate-risk management.

Open Science↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗