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Riley, P.

Publications and source records attributed to Riley, P..

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Jian, L. K.

Slow Solar Wind: Observations and Modeling

While it is certain that the fast solar wind originates from coronal holes, where and how the slow solar wind (SSW) is formed remains an outstanding question in solar physics even in the post-SOHO era. The quest for the SSW origin forms a major objective for the planned future missions such as the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus. Nonetheless, results from spacecraft data, combined with theoretical modeling, have helped to investigate many aspects of the SSW. Fundamental physical properties of the coronal plasma have been derived from spectroscopic and imaging remote-sensing data and in situ data, and these results have provided crucial insights for a deeper understanding of the origin and acceleration of the SSW. Advanced models of the SSW in coronal streamers and other structures have been developed using 3D MHD and multi-fluid equations.

Abbo, L.

Flux-Rope Structure of Coronal Mass Ejections

This Topical Issue (TI) of Solar Physics, devoted to the study of flux-rope structure in coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is based on two Coordinated Data Analysis Workshops (CDAWs) held in 2010 (20-23 September in Dan Diego, California, USA) and 2011 (5-9 September in Alcala, Spain). The primary purpose of the CDAWs was to address the question whether all CMEs have a flux rope structure. Each CDAW was attended by about 50 scientists interested in the origin, propagation, and interplanetary manifestation of CME phenomena.

flux-rope

Using Statistical Multivariable Models to Understand the Relationship Between Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejecta and Magnetic Flux Ropes

In-situ measurements of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) display a wide range of properties. A distinct subset, "magnetic clouds" (MCs), are readily identifiable by a smooth rotation in an enhanced magnetic field, together with an unusually low solar wind proton temperature. In this study, we analyze Ulysses spacecraft measurements to systematically investigate five possible explanations for why some ICMEs are observed to be MCs and others are not: i) An observational selection effect; that is, all ICMEs do in fact contain MCs, but the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME determines whether the MC is actually encountered; ii) interactions of an erupting flux rope (PR) with itself or between neighboring FRs, which produce complex structures in which the coherent magnetic structure has been destroyed; iii) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-beta state that leads to the formation of an MC; iv) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic initiation mechanisms, some of which produce MCs and some that do not; or v) MCs are just an easily identifiable limit in an otherwise corntinuous spectrum of structures. We apply quantitative statistical models to assess these ideas. In particular, we use the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the candidate models and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to uncover any intrinsic clustering of the data. Using a logistic regression, we find that plasma-beta, CME width, and the ratio O(sup 7) / O(sup 6) are the most significant predictor variables for the presence of an MC. Moreover, the propensity for an event to be identified as an MC decreases with heliocentric distance. These results tend to refute ideas ii) and iii). GMM clustering analysis further identifies three distinct groups of ICMEs; two of which match (at the 86% level) with events independently identified as MCs, and a third that matches with non-MCs (68 % overlap), Thus, idea v) is not supported. Choosing between ideas i) and iv) is more challenging, since they may effectively be indistinguishable from one another by a single in-situ spacecraft. We offer some suggestions on how future studies may address this.

Riley, P.

Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona for the Total Solar Eclipse of March 29,2006

We describe the use of a three-dimensional MHD model to predict the s tructure of the corona prior to the total solar eclipse of March 29, 2006. The calculation uses the observed photospheric radial magnetic f ield as a boundary condition. We use a new version of our model that has an improved description of energy transport in the corona. The mo del allows us to predict the emission of X-ray and EUV radiation in t he corona. We compare the predicted polarization brightness in the co rona with four observations of the eclipse from Greece, Egypt, and Li bya, and we demonstrate that the model accurately predicts the largescale structure of the corona. We also compare X-ray emission from the model with GOES/SXI images.

Mikic, Z.

Maximizing the Scientific Return of the Sentinels Mission Using Global MHD Models

The Sentinels mission promises to provide a unique view of the acceleration and transport processes of energetic particles as well as the initiation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A crucial component in understanding the physics associated with these processes lies in the large-scale structure of the corona and heliosphere, particularly during the eruption and propagation of fast CMEs. In this talk we review the current status of our MHD modeling efforts, focusing on Sentinels-specific science, and project forward to envisage what capabilities we may have developed by the time that the Sentinels launch (2012). In conjunction with Solar Orbiter, the farside and near-Earth Sentinels spacecraft will provide simultaneous photospheric magnetograph measurements at multiple longitudes, which will lead to major improvements in our ability to prescribe accurate, time-dependent global boundary conditions. Data returned from the inner heliospheric Sentinels will be used to validate these results. The model results can be used in a variety of ways to interpret the observations. For example, products from the model, such as the properties of CME-driven shocks and CME-associated reconnection sites can be used to interpret complex energetic particle profiles. Also, by tracing along magnetic field lines, the inferred sites of the energetic particles can be connected directly with the in situ measurements at each spacecraft. Perhaps more so than any previous mission, sophisticated models will be required to unravel the broad and disparate measurements returned by the suite of Sentinels spacecraft.

Riley, P.

Temporal Evolution of a Streamer Complex: Coronal and In-Situ Plasma Parameters

In this paper we report on observations acquired by the Ultra Violet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), from 10 to 17 June 2000, at the time of a SOHO-Sun-Ulysses quadrature. UVCS took data at 1.6 and 1.9 solar radii, with a slit normal to the solar radius and centered along the radial to Ulysses. A streamer complex was sampled by UVCS, throughout the quadrature campaign, giving us the opportunity to derive plasma parameters in different streamers, and to compare them with plasma properties measured in situ. Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) images above 2 solar radii helped us understand the temporal evolution of the streamer complex. We derive densities, temperatures and elemental abundances in two streamers, which have different temperatures and element abundances. In spite of these differences, both structures have the same FIP bias. The Fe/O ratio, which may be considered a proxy for the FIP effect, was measured (\it in situ} by the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) aboard the Ulysses spacecraft. Values of Fe/O measured in the corona, at the sites where in situ plasma originated, agree with in situ Fe/O values.

Bemporad, A.

Reply to "Comment on the Paper ''On the Determination of Electron Polytrope Indices Within Coronal Mass Ejections in the Solar Wind'"'

We strongly disagree with the essence of the Osherovich (hereafter Osherovich) comment on one of our papers. The following paragraphs provide the basis of our disagreement and elaborate on why we believe that none of the concluding statements in his Comment are true. Our most important point is that one can apply the model developed by Osherovich and colleagues to real data obtained at a single point in space to determine the polytropic index within magnetic clouds if and only if the highly idealized assumptions of that model conform to physical reality. There is good reason to believe that those assumptions do not provide an accurate physical description of real magnetic clouds in the spherically expanding solar wind.

Gosling, J. T.

Combined Ulysses Solar Wind and SOHO Coronal Observations of Several West Limb Coronal Mass Ejections

From October 1996 to January 1997, Ulysses was situated roughly above the west limb of the Sun as observed from Earth at a heliocentric distance of about 4.6 AU and a latitude of about 25 deg. This presents the first opportunity to compare Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) limb observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directly with their solar wind counterparts far from the Sun using the Ulysses data. During this interval, large eruptive events were observed above the west limb of the Sun by the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on SOHO on October 5, November 28, and December 21-25, 1996. Using the combined plasma and magnetic field data from Ulysses, the October 5 event was clearly identified by several distinguishing signatures as a CME. The November 28 event was also identified as a CME that trailed fast ambient solar wind, although it was identified only by an extended interval of counterstreaming suprathermal electrons. The December 21 event was apparently characterized by a six-day interval of nearly radial field and a plasma rarefaction. For the numerous eruptive events observed by the LASCO coronagraph during December 23-25, Ulysses showed no distinct, CMEs, perhaps because of intermingling of two or more of the eruptive events. By mapping the Ulysses observations back in time to the Sun assuming a constant flow speed, we have identified intervals of plasma that were accelerated or decelerated between the LASCO and Ulysses observations.

Funsten, H. O.

An Unusual Coronal Mass Ejection: First Solar Wind Electron, Proton, Alpha Monitor (SWEPAM) Results from the Advanced Composition Explorer

This paper reports the first scientific results from the Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (SWEPAM) instrument on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. We analyzed a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in the solar wind using data from early February, 1998. This event displayed several of the common signatures of CMEs, such as counterstreaming halo electrons and depressed ion and electron temperatures, as well as some unusual features. During a portion of the CME traversal, SWEPAM measured a very large helium to proton abundance ratio. Other heavy ions, with a set of ionization states consistent with normal (1 to 2x10(exp 6) K) coronal temperatures, were proportionately enhanced at this time. These observations suggest a source for at least some of the CME material, where heavy ions are initially concentrated relative to hydrogen and then accelerated up into the solar wind, independent of their mass and first ionization potential.

McComas, D. J.

A Prolonged He(+) Enhancement within a Coronal Mass Ejection in the Solar Wind

A coronal mass ejection and magnetic cloud containing an unusually large enhancement of He+ was observed in the solar wind by the plasma and magnetic field instruments on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft on May 2-4, 1998. The He+/He++ ratio during this event exceeded 0.5% for a period of more than 24 hours, and reached values as high as 100%. The high He+/He++ ratio indicates the presence of prominence material, and in fact a disappearing filament and prominence were observed at the Sun in association with this event. The prolonged observation of He+ indicates that prominence material extended through mu ch of this CME, the first such observation in a CME in the solar wind.

Skoug, R. M.

A search for the coronal origins of fast solar wind streams during the whole sun month period

The solar wind streams observed from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Ulysses, WIND spacecraft during the whole solar month are discussed. These solar wind streams, with speeds in excess of 500 km/s, were detected from 10 August to 8 September 1996. The data covering Carrington rotations 1912 and 1913 are presented. The magnetic field azimuthal angle observations at 1 AU from WIND show that all the streams are associated with outward fields near the sun. The stream structure near 320 deg was associated with the central meridian passage of a coronal hole. The Fe XIV ground based observations show a region of low intensity in the zero to 170 deg longitude. The question of whether the streams arise from equatorial features or represent flows coming from higher latitude features is not solved.

Lazarus, A. J.

Arc-Polarized, Nonlinear Alfven Waves and Rotational Discontinuities: Directions of Propogation?

Large amplitude, noncompressive Alfven waves and rotational discontinuities are shown to be arc-polarized. The slowly rotating Alfven wave portion plus the fast rotating discontinuity comprise 360(deg) in phase rotation. The magnetic field vector perturbation lies in a plane. There are two (or more) possible interpretations to the observations.

Alfven waves rotational discontinuities arc-polari