Engineering topics

Riley, Pete

Publications and source records attributed to Riley, Pete.

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2020

The Heliospheric Current Sheet in the Inner Heliosphere Observed by the Parker Solar Probe

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) completed its first solar encounter in 2018 November, bringing it closer to the Sun than any previous mission. This allowed in situ investigation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) inside the orbit of Venus. The Parker observations reveal a well defined magnetic sector structure placing the spacecraft in a negative polarity region for most of the encounter. The observed current sheet crossings are compared to the predictions of both potential field source surface and magnetohydrodynamic models. All the model predictions are in good qualitative agreement with the observed crossings of the HCS. The models also generally agree that the HCS was nearly parallel with the solar equator during the inbound leg of the encounter and more significantly inclined during the outbound portion. The current sheet crossings at PSP are also compared to similar measurements made by the Wind spacecraft near Earth at 1 au. After allowing for orbital geometry and propagation effects, a remarkable agreement has been found between the observations of these two spacecraft underlying the large-scale stability of the HCS. Finally, the detailed magnetic field and plasma structure of each crossing is analyzed. Marked differences were observed between PSP and Wind measurements in the type of structures found near the HCS. This suggests that significant evolution of these small solar wind structures takes place before they reach 1 au.

Szabo, Adam↗

NASA NTRS2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within Â±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

space weather↗

NASA NTRS2017

Particle Radiation Sources, Propagation and Interactions in Deep Space, at Earth, the Moon, Mars, and Beyond: Examples of Radiation Interactions and Effects

Particle radiation has significant effects for astronauts, satellites and planetary bodies throughout the Solar System. Acute space radiation hazards pose risks to human and robotic exploration. This radiation also naturally weathers the exposed surface regolith of the Moon, the two moons of Mars, and other airless bodies, and contributes to chemical evolution of planetary atmospheres at Earth, Mars, Venus, Titan, and Pluto. We provide a select review of recent areas of research covering the origin of SEPs from coronal mass ejections low in the corona, propagation of events through the solar system during the anomalously weak solar cycle 24 and important examples of radiation interactions for Earth, other planets and airless bodies such as the Moon.

Schwadron, Nathan A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Synthesis of 3-D Coronal-Solar Wind Energetic Particle Acceleration Modules

Acute space radiation hazards pose one of the most serious risks to future human and robotic exploration. Large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are dangerous to astronauts and equipment. The ability to predict when and where large SEPs will occur is necessary in order to mitigate their hazards. The Coronal-Solar Wind Energetic Particle Acceleration (C-SWEPA) modeling effort in the NASANSF Space Weather Modeling Collaborative [Schunk, 2014] combines two successful Living With a Star (LWS) (http:lws.gsfc.nasa.gov) strategic capabilities: the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Modules (EMMREM)[Schwadron et al., 2010] that describe energetic particles and their effects, with the Next Generation Model forthe Corona and Solar Wind developed by the Predictive Science, Inc. (PSI) group. The goal of the C-WEPA effort is to develop a coupled model that describes the conditions of the corona, solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated shocks, particle acceleration, and propagation via physics-based modules. Assessing the threat of SEPs is a difficult problem. The largest SEPs typically arise in conjunction with X classflares and very fast (1000 kms) CMEs. These events are usually associated with complex sunspot groups(also known as active regions) that harbor strong, stressed magnetic fields. Highly energetic protonsgenerated in these events travel near the speed of light and can arrive at Earth minutes after the eruptiveevent. The generation of these particles is, in turn, believed to be primarily associated with the shock waveformed very low in the corona by the passage of the CME (injection of particles fromthe flare sitemay also playa role). Whether these particles actually reach Earth (or any other point) depends on their transport in theinterplanetary magnetic field and their magnetic connection to the shock.

exploration↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2008

Using Global Simulations to Relate the Three-Part Structure of Coronal Mass Ejections to In Situ Signatures

White-light observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) often show the classic "three-part" structure consisting of (1) a bright front; (2) a dark cavity; and (3) a bright, compact core. It has proven difficult to unambiguously associate these features with in situ measurements of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), in all but a few cases. In this study we use a global MHD model to simulate the eruption and evolution of a CME out to 0.25 AU, allowing us to continuously track these features from the Sun and through the solar wind. Our results support the generally held view that the interplanetary flux rope corresponds to the dark cavity. We find that the bright front merges with solar wind material swept up by the ICME. Thus, the sheath material found ahead of fast ejecta is in fact composed from both ambient solar wind material, as well the bright front. We also note that, in this simulation, the bright front is formed from the overlying streamer configuration from within which the CME erupted and is not itself coronal material swept up during the early phase of the eruption. The conclusions reached in this study are undoubtedly sensitive to the initial configuration and mechanism used to initiate the CME, and thus care should be taken when using them to interpret specific observations. On the other hand, they provide a unique, unbroken connection between remote solar and interplanetary observations. Ultimately, detailed comparisons between observations and simulation results may be able to constrain or even rule out some mechanisms of CME initiation

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2008

Using Global Simulations to Relate the Three-Part Structure of Coronal Mass Ejections to in Situ Signatures

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Alternative Interpretation of the Relationship between the Inferred Open Solar Flux and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field

Photospheric observations at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) represent an uninterrupted data set of 32 years and are therefore unique for modeling variations in the magnetic structure of the corona and inner heliosphere over three solar cycles. For many years, modelers have applied a latitudinal correction factor to these data, believing that it provided a better estimate of the line-of-sight magnetic field. Its application was defended by arguing that the computed open flux matched observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly better than the original WSO correction factor. However, no physically based argument could be made for its use. In this Letter we explore the implications of using the constant correction factor on the value and variation of the computed open solar flux and its relationship to the measured IMF. We find that it does not match the measured IMF at 1 AU except at and surrounding solar minimum. However, we argue that interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) may provide sufficient additional magnetic flux to the extent that a remarkably good match is found between the sum of the computed open flux and inferred ICME flux and the measured flux at 1 AU. If further substantiated, the implications of this interpretation may be significant, including a better understanding of the structure and strength of the coronal field and I N providing constraints for theories of field line transport in the corona, the modulation of galactic cosmic rays, and even possibly terrestrial climate effects.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2007

On the Origin of Near-Radial Magnetic Fields in the Heliosphere: Numerical Simulations

Deviations from the direction of the "Parker spiral" can be found in in situ measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field on essentially all scales. One intriguing subset is the intervals of near-radial magnetic field, lasting for many hours. Some such intervals are obviously associated with coronal mass ejections, while others appear to be embedded within the ambient solar wind. Most occur on declining speed profiles, such that, when mapped back to the Sun, an entire radial field interval appears to have been launched at approximately the same time. It has been proposed that these events are the result of abrupt, semipermanent speed decreases on these field lines close to the Sun, and that such speed changes might be due to interchange reconnection. In this study, we use a three-dimensional, time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model to assess to what extent this can account for near-radial magnetic fields observed relatively far out in the heliosphere. We find that sudden speed drops on the trailing portions of high-speed flows can produce strongly underwound (that is near radial) field lines in the heliosphere, although significantly larger speed gradients are required than are typically observed. Moreover, the simulations also reproduce the decreases in density, temperature, and magnetic field strength that are also commonly observed within these events. The question of what produces the abrupt speed drops remains to be answered.

Mikic, Zoran↗

NASA NTRS2007

"Bursty" Reconnection Following Solar Eruptions: MHD Simulations and Comparison with Observations

Posteruptive arcades are frequently seen in the aftermath of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The formation of these loops at successively higher altitudes, coupled with the classic "two-ribbon" flare seen in H-alpha, are interpreted as reconnection of the coronal magnetic field that has been dragged outward by the CME. White-light observations of "rays," which have been interpreted as being coincident with the current sheet at the reconnection site underneath the erupting CME, also provide evidence for its occurrence. "Blobs" occasionally seen within these rays suggest an even richer level of structure. In this report, we present numerical simulations that reproduce both the observed rays and the formation and evolution of the blobs. We compare their properties with SOHO/LASCO observations of similar structures, and relate their formation to standard theories of reconnection,

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2006

On the Rates of Coronal Mass Ejections: Remote Solar and In Situ Observations

We compare the rates of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as inferred from remote solar observations and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) as inferred from in situ observations at both 1 AU and Ulyssses from 1996 through 2004. We also distinguish between those ICMEs that contain a magnetic cloud (MC) and those that do not. While the rates of CMEs and ICMEs track each other well at solar minimum, they diverge significantly in early 1998, during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, with the remote solar observations yielding approximately 20 times more events than are seen at 1 AU. This divergence persists through 2004. A similar divergence occurs between MCs and non-MC ICMEs. We argue that these divergences are due to the birth of midlatitude active regions, which are the sites of a distinct population of CMEs, only partially intercepted by Earth, and we present a simple geometric argument showing that the CME and ICME rates are consistent with one another. We also acknowledge contributions from (1) an increased rate of high-latitude CMEs and (2) focusing effects from the global solar field. While our analysis, coupled with numerical modeling results, generally supports the interpretation that whether one observes a MC within an ICME is sensitive to the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME (i.e., an observational selection effect), one result directly contradicts it. Specifically, we find no systematic offset between the latitudinal origin of ICMEs that contain MCs at 1 AU in the ecliptic plane and that of those that do not.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Latitudinal Excursion of Coronal Magnetic Field Lines in Response to Differential Rotation: MHD Simulations

Solar energetic particles, which are believed to originate from corotating interacting regions (CIRS) at low heliographic latitude, were observed by the Ulysses spacecraft even as it passed over the Sun's poles. One interpretation of this result is that high-latitude field lines intercepted by Ulysses connect to low-latitude CIRs at much larger heliocentric distances. The Fisk model explains the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in the solar corona and heliosphere as the inevitable consequence of the interaction of a tilted dipole in a differentially rotating photosphere with rigidly rotating coronal holes. We use a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) algorithm to follow the evolution of a simple model of the solar corona in response to the differential rotation of the photospheric magnetic flux. We examine the changes of the coronal-hole boundaries, the redistribution of the line-of-sight magnetic field, and the precession of field lines in the corona. Our results confirm the basic idea of the Fisk model, that differential rotation leads to changes in the heliographic latitude of magnetic field lines. However, the latitudinal excursion of magnetic field lines in this simple "tilted dipole" model is too small to explain the Ulysses observations. Although coronal holes in our model rotate more rigidly than do photospheric features (in general agreement with observations), they do not rotate strictly rigidly as assumed by Fisk. This basic difference between our model and Fisk's will be explored in the future by considering more realistic magnetic flux distributions, as observed during Ulysses polar excursions.

Lionello, Roberto↗

NASA NTRS2004

ULYSSES OBSERVATIONS OF THE MAGNETIC CONNECTIVITY BETWEEN CORONAL, MASS EJECTIONS AND THE SUN

We have investigated the magnetic connectivity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the Sun using Ulysses observations of suprathermal electrons at various distances between 1 and 5.2 AU. Drawing on ideas concerning the eruption and evolution of CMEs, we had anticipated that there might be a tendency for CMEs to contain progressively more open field lines, as reconnection back at the Sun either opened or completely disconnected previously closed field lines threading the CMEs. Our results, however, did not yield any discernible trend. By combining the potential contribution of CMEs to the heliospheric flux with the observed buildup of flux during the course of the solar cycle, we also derive a lower limit for the reconnection rate of CMEs that is sufficient to avoid the "flux catastrophe" paradox. This rate is well below our threshold of detectability. Subject headings: solar wind - Sun: activity - Sun: corona - Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - On-line material: color figure Sun: magnetic fields

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2004

Understanding the Global Structure and Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Solar Wind

This report summarizes the technical progress made during the first six months of the second year of the NASA Living with a Star program contract Understanding the global structure and evolution of coronal mass ejections in the solar wind, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period November 18, 2003 - May 17,2004. Under this contract SAIC has conducted numerical and data analysis related to fundamental issues concerning the origin, intrinsic properties, global structure, and evolution of coronal mass ejections in the solar wind. During this working period we have focused on a quantitative assessment of 5 flux rope fitting techniques. In the following sections we summarize the main aspects of this work and our proposed investigation plan for the next reporting period. Thus far, our investigation has resulted in 6 refereed scientific publications and we have presented the results at a number of scientific meetings and workshops.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2004

KINEMATIC TREATMENT OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVOLUTION IN THE SOLAR WIND

We present a kinematic study of the evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar wind. Specifically, we consider the effects of (1) spherical expansion and (2) uniform expansion due to pressure gradients between the interplanetary CME (ICME) and the ambient solar wind. We compare these results with an MHD model that allows us to isolate these effects h m the combined kinematic and dynamical effects, which are included in MHD models. They also provide compelling evidence that the fundamental cross section of so-called "force-free" flux ropes (or magnetic clouds) is neither circular or elliptical, but rather a convex-outward, "pancake" shape. We apply a force-free fit to the magnetic vectors from the MHD simulation to assess how the distortion of the flux rope affects the fit. In spite of these limitations, force-free fits, which are straightforward to apply, do provide an important description of a number of parameters, including the radial dimension, orientation, and chirality of the ICME. Subject headings: MHD - solar wind - Sun: activity - Sun: corona - Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - On-line material color figures Sun: magnetic fields

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2004

Fitting Flux Ropes to a Global MHD Solution: A Comparison of Techniques

Flux rope fitting (FRF) techniques are an invaluable tool for extracting information about the properties of a subclass of CMEs in the solar wind. However, it has proven difficult to assess their accuracy since the underlying global structure of the CME cannot be independently determined from the data. In contrast, large-scale MHD simulations of CME evolution can provide both a global view as well as localized time series at specific points in space. In this study we apply 5 different fitting techniques to 2 hypothetical time series derived from MHD simulation results. Independent teams performed the analysis of the events in "blind tests", for which no information, other than the time series, was provided. F rom the results, we infer the following: (1) Accuracy decreases markedly with increasingly glancing encounters; (2) Correct identification of the boundaries of the flux rope can be a significant limiter; and (3) Results from techniques that infer global morphology must be viewed with caution. In spite of these limitations, FRF techniques remain a useful tool for describing in situ observations of flux rope CMEs.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2004

Ulysses Observations of the Magnetic Connectivity between CMEs and the Sun

We have investigated the magnetic connectivity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the Sun using Ulysses observations of suprathermal electrons at various distances between 1 AU and 5.2 AU. Drawing on ideas concerning the eruption and evolution of CMEs, we had anticipated that there might be a tendency for CMEs to contain progressively more open field lines, as reconnection back at the Sun either opened or completely disconnected previously closed field lines threading the CMEs. Our results, however, did not yield any discernible trend. By combining the potential contribution of CMEs to the heliospheric flux with the observed build-up of flux during the course of the solar cycle we also derive a lower limit for the reconnection rate of CMEs that is sufficient to avoid the "flux catastrophe" paradox. This rate is well below our threshold of detectability.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2004

Kinematic Treatment of CME Evolution in the Solar Wind

We present a kinematic study of the evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar wind. Specifically, we consider the effects of: (1) spherical expansion; and (2) uniform expansion due to pressure gradients between the Interplanetary CME (ICME) and the ambient solar wind. We compare these results with an MHD model, which allows us to isolate these effects from the combined kinematic and dynamical effects, which are included in MHD models. They also provide compelling evidence that the fundamental cross section of so-called "force-free" flux ropes (or magnetic clouds) is neither circular or elliptical, but rather a convex-outward, "pancake" shape. We apply a force-free fitting to the magnetic vectors from the MHD simulation to assess how the distortion of the flux rope affects the fitting. In spite of these limitations, force-free fittings, which are straightforward to apply, do provide an important description of a number of parameters, including the radial dimension, orientation and chirality of the ICME.

Riley, Pete↗