A climatically significant abiotic mechanism driving carbon loss and nitrogen limitation in peat bogs
Not Available
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Engineering topics
Riley, William J.
Publications and source records attributed to Riley, William J..
Critical needs to close monitoring gaps in pan-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions
Global wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ). The FLUXNET-CH 4 synthesis initiative has established a global network of flux tower infrastructure, offering valuable data products and fostering a dedicated community for the measurement and analysis of methane flux data. Existing studies using the FLUXNET-CH 4 Community Product v1.0 have provided invaluable insights into the drivers of ecosystem-to-regional spatial patterns and daily-to-decadal temporal dynamics in temperate, boreal, and Arctic climate regions. However, as the wetland CH 4 monitoring network grows, there is a critical knowledge gap about where new monitoring infrastructure ought to be located to improve understanding of the global wetland CH 4 budget. Here we address this gap with a spatial representativeness analysis at existing and hypothetical observation sites, using 16 process-based wetland biogeochemistry models and machine learning. We find that, in addition to eddy covariance monitoring sites, existing chamber sites are important complements, especially over high latitudes and the tropics. Furthermore, expanding the current monitoring network for wetland CH 4 emissions should prioritize, first, tropical and second, sub-tropical semi-arid wetland regions. Considering those new hypothetical wetland sites from tropical and semi-arid climate zones could significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions and reduce bias by 79% (from 76 to 16 TgCH 4 y -1 ), compared with using solely existing monitoring networks. Our study thus demonstrates an approach for long-term strategic expansion of flux observations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Functional-type modeling approach and data-driven parameterization of methane emissions in wetlands (Final Technical Science Report)
Our goals are to improve understanding and quantitative representation of the multiple processes that affect methane emissions at a high (patch level, vertically detailed) spatial resolution, and translate this understanding to improved modeling capability of coastal wetland fluxes using the E3SM Land Model (ELM v1) wetland CH4 biogeochemistry module. We propose an experimental approach to identify and parameterize uncertainties in ELM. Understanding of methane emissions can be improved along three conceptual axes: (i) horizontal (ecohydrological patch resolution), (ii) vertical (through the depth of the soil column), and (iii) process level (e.g., resolving microbial pathways, vegetation specific transport pathways). Along each of the three axes, we will characterize, quantify, and model, the key ecological, hydrological, and meteorological controls of methane (CH4) flux heterogeneity in four model coastal wetlands.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Development of a multi-layer canopy model for E3SM Land Model with support for heterogeneous computing
The vertical structure of vegetation canopies creates micro-climates. However, the land components of most Earth System Models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), typically neglect vertical canopy structure by using a single layer big-leaf representation to simulate water, CO 2 , and energy exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. In this study, we developed a Multi-Layer Canopy Model for the E3SM Land Model to resolve the micro-climate created by vegetation canopies. The model developed in this study re-implements the CLM-ml_v1 to support heterogeneous computing architectures consisting of CPUs and GPUs and includes three additional optimization-based stomatal conductance models. The use of Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation provides a speedup of 25–50 times on a GPU relative to a CPU. The numerical implementation of the model was verified against CLM-ml_v1 for a month-long simulation using data from the Ameriflux US-University of Michigan Biological Station site. Model structural uncertainty was explored by performing control simulations for five stomatal conductance models that exclude and include the control of plant hydrodynamics (PHD) on photosynthesis. The bias in simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes was lower when PHD was accounted for in the model. Additionally, six idealized simulations were performed to study the impact of three environmental variables (i.e. air temperature, atmospheric CO 2 , and soil moisture) on canopy processes (i.e. net CO 2 assimilation, leaf temperature, and leaf water potential). Increasing air temperature reduced net CO 2 assimilation and increased air temperature. Net CO 2 assimilation increased at higher atmospheric CO 2 , while decreasing soil moisture resulted in lower leaf water potential.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Feasibility of Formulating Ecosystem Biogeochemical Models From Established Physical Rules
Abstract To improve the predictive capability of ecosystem biogeochemical models (EBMs), we discuss the feasibility of formulating biogeochemical processes using physical rules that have underpinned the many successes in computational physics and chemistry. We argue that the currently popular empirically based approaches, such as multiplicative empirical response functions and the law of the minimum, will not lead to EBM formulations that can be continuously refined to incorporate improved mechanistic understanding and empirical observations of biogeochemical processes. Instead, we propose that EBM parameterizations, as a lossy data compression problem, can be better formulated using established physical rules widely used in computational physics and chemistry, and different biogeochemical processes can be more robustly integrated within a reactive‐transport framework. Through several examples, we demonstrate how mathematical representations derived from physical rules can improve understanding of relevant biogeochemical processes and enable more effective communication between modelers, observationalists, and experimentalists regarding essential questions, such as what measurements are needed to meaningfully inform models and how can models generate new process‐level hypotheses to test in empirical studies. Finally, while empirical models with more parameters are often less robust, physical rules‐based models can be more robust and show lower predictive equifinality, stemming from their enhanced consistency in representations of processes, interactions and spatial scaling.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Plant responses to elevated CO 2 under competing hypotheses of nitrogen and phosphorus limitations
Abstract The future ecosystem carbon cycle has important implications for biosphere‐climate feedback. The magnitude of future plant growth and carbon accumulation depends on plant strategies for nutrient uptake under the stresses of nitrogen (N) versus phosphorus (P) limitations. Two archetypal theories have been widely acknowledged in the literature to represent N and P limitations on ecosystem processes: Liebig's Law of the Minimum (LLM) and the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) approach. LLM states that the more limiting nutrient controls plant growth, and commonly leads to predictions of dramatically dampened ecosystem carbon accumulation over the 21st century. Conversely, the MEL approach recognizes that plants possess multiple pathways to coordinate N and P availability and invest resources to alleviate N or P limitation. We implemented these two contrasting approaches in the E3SM model, and compiled 98 in situ forest N or P fertilization experiments to evaluate how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to N and P limitations. We find that MEL better captured the observed plant responses to nutrient perturbations globally, compared with LLM. Furthermore, LLM and MEL diverged dramatically in responses to elevated CO 2 concentrations, leading to a two‐fold difference in CO 2 fertilization effects on Net Primary Productivity by the end of the 21st century. The larger CO 2 fertilization effects indicated by MEL mainly resulted from plant mediation on N and P resource supplies through N 2 fixation and phosphatase activities. This analysis provides quantitative evidence of how different N and P limitation strategies can diversely affect future carbon and nutrient dynamics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Nutrient Dynamics in a Coupled Terrestrial Biosphere and Land Model (ELM-FATES-CNP)
We present a representation of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, a demographic vegetation model within the Energy Exascale Earth System land model. This representation is modular, and designed to allow testing of multiple hypothetical approaches for carbon-nutrient coupling in plants. Novel model hypotheses introduced in this work include, (a) the controls on plant acquisition of aqueous mineralized nutrients in the soil and (b) fairly straight forward methods of allocating nutrients to specific plant organs and their losses through live plant turnover as well as litter fluxes generated through plant mortality. This combines the new with pre-existing hypotheses (such as nitrogen fixation and soil decomposition) into a system that can accommodate plant-soil dynamics for a large number of size- and functional-type-resolved plant cohorts within a time-since-disturbance-resolved ecosystem. Root uptake of nutrients is governed by fine root biomass, and plants vary in their fine root biomass allocation in order to balance carbon and nutrient limitations to growth. We test the sensitivity of the model to a wide range of parameter variations and structural representations, and in the context of observations at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. A key model prediction is that plants in the high-light-availability canopy positions allocate more carbon to fine roots than plants in low-light understory environments, given the widely different carbon versus nutrient constraints of these two niches within a given ecosystem. This model provides a basis for exploring carbon-nutrient coupling with vegetation demography within Earth system models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Grass Evolutionary Lineages Can Be Identified Using Hyperspectral Leaf Reflectance
Hyperspectral remote sensing has the potential to map numerous attributes of the Earth’s surface, including spatial patterns of biological diversity. Grasslands are one of the largest biomes on Earth. Accurate mapping of grassland biodiversity relies on spectral discrimination of endmembers of species or plant functional types. We focused on spectral separation of grass lineages that dominate global grassy biomes: Andropogoneae (C 4 ), Chloridoideae (C 4 ), and Pooideae (C 3 ). We examined leaf reflectance spectra (350–2,500 nm) from 43 grass species representing these grass lineages from four representative grassland sites in the Great Plains region of North America. Here, we assessed the utility of leaf reflectance data for classification of grass species into three major lineages and by collection site. Classifications had very high accuracy (94%) that were robust to site differences in species and environment. We also show an information loss using multispectral sensors, that is, classification accuracy of grass lineages using spectral bands provided by current multispectral satellites is much lower (accuracy of 85.2% and 61.3% using Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8 bands, respectively). Our results suggest that hyperspectral data have an exciting potential for mapping grass functional types as informed by phylogeny. Leaf-level hyperspectral separability of grass lineages is consistent with the potential increase in biodiversity and functional information content from the next generation of satellite-based spectrometers.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
ELM-Wet: Inclusion of a wetland landunit with sub-grid representation of eco-hydrological patches and hydrological forcing in E3SM Land Model (ELM)
Wetlands emit the most biogenic methane (CH4) and present the greatest uncertainty in the global CH4 budget. Modeling these emissions is challenging due to the temporal and spatial variability in wetland structure and CH4 flux rates, along with complex interactions among hydrological, ecological, meteorological, and microbial processes that govern CH4 dynamics. To address these issues, we aim to enhance the accuracy of wetland representation in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model, ELM. This effort led to the development of ELM-Wet, which incorporates a dedicated wetland landunit with subgrid representation of eco-hydrological patch types. We implement wetland-specific hydrology by imposing site-specific constraints on surface water levels, thereby allowing different patches to sustain varying depths of inundation. Additionally, we refined the calculation of aerenchyma transport diffusivity based on observed conductance across different vegetation types. We validated these enhancements through site-specific simulations of a coastal freshwater wetland, the Salvador WMA Freshwater Marsh (Ameriflux, site ID US-LA2), located in the coast of Louisiana (29.85N,90.29W) at an elevation of 0 m. The site was simulated with ELM-Wet and the default version ELMv1. We use Bayesian Optimization to parameterize CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Eddy covariance observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes from 2012-2013 were used to train the model and data from 2021 were used for validation. In this repository, we include all the output of all the simulations performed using different versions of ELMv1 and ELM-Wet, all input required to the model, and the Matlab scripts we used to processed the output data. ELM-Wet_flmd.csv includes a detailed description of the datasets files.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global impacts of vegetation clumping on regulating land surface heat fluxes
The clumping index (CI) quantifies the non-random distribution of vegetation across space, which regulates the canopy radiative transfer processes and land surface carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, its impact on global surface energy budget, particularly sensible heat fluxes and surface temperature, is not well understood. Additionally, while there have been studies showing significant seasonal variations in CI, the impacts of these variations on surface energy fluxes remain unclear. In this study, we incorporated satellite-derived spatially and temporally explicit CI data into the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to evaluate the effects of CI on global land energy fluxes. Our results showed that including CI increased the global mean sensible heat flux dissipated from ground by 3.9 W m -2 (~18%), while decreasing the global mean vegetation sensible heat flux by 4.9 W m -2 (~65%), resulting in a total sensible heat decrease of 1.0 W m -2 (~3%). In contrast, CI increased the global mean latent heat flux by 0.8 W m -2 (~2%), primarily due to increased evapotranspiration (up to 11 W m -2 ) in tropical regions. We also found considerable impacts of seasonal variations in CI, particularly on sensible heat fluxes from ground and vegetation in evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous needleleaf forests. Using constant CI rather than considering seasonal variations resulted in significant overestimation and underestimation of the sensible heat fluxes from vegetation and ground, respectively, in boreal summer. In conclusion, these changes in surface energy fluxes caused by CI and its seasonal variations led to up to 1.7 and 0.5 K differences in simulated mean ground temperature. These findings highlight the importance of including CI and considering its seasonal variations in modeling land surface energy fluxes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory
Abstract A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH 4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses
Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at multi-day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH 4 variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH 4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH 4 variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH 4 model developments.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Evolutionary lineage explains trait variation among 75 coexisting grass species
Summary Evolutionary history plays a key role driving patterns of trait variation across plant species. For scaling and modeling purposes, grass species are typically organized into C 3 vs C 4 plant functional types (PFTs). Plant functional type groupings may obscure important functional differences among species. Rather, grouping grasses by evolutionary lineage may better represent grass functional diversity. We measured 11 structural and physiological traits in situ from 75 grass species within the North American tallgrass prairie. We tested whether traits differed significantly among photosynthetic pathways or lineages (tribe) in annual and perennial grass species. Critically, we found evidence that grass traits varied among lineages, including independent origins of C 4 photosynthesis. Using a rigorous model selection approach, tribe was included in the top models for five of nine traits for perennial species. Tribes were separable in a multivariate and phylogenetically controlled analysis of traits, owing to coordination of important structural and ecophysiological characteristics. Our findings suggest grouping grass species by photosynthetic pathway overlooks variation in several functional traits, particularly for C 4 species. These results indicate that further assessment of lineage‐based differences at other sites and across other grass species distributions may improve representation of C 4 species in trait comparison analyses and modeling investigations.
Donnelly, Ryan C.↗
Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates
Not Available
Chang, Kuang‐Yu↗
Sticky roots--implications of widespread, cryptic, viral infection of plants in natural and managed ecosystems for soil carbon processing in the rhizosphere
Plants strongly influence soil properties through rhizodeposition, in which exudates diffuse from roots, additional secretions are actively released, and root cells are sloughed into the soil. This contribution by plants of carbon compounds belowground is at the core of soil health, water holding capacity, and the soil carbon storage that pulls carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. Once in soil, organic matter can bind with minerals such as iron hydroxides, where it can be protected from microbial attack for millenia, preserving very large terrestrial soil carbon pools. However, those same compounds contributed by roots to soil may also destabilize the long-term protective associations of SOM with minerals, making that soil organic matter (SOM) more vulnerable to microbial attack and decomposition. Plant roots thus influence both the buildup and breakdown of soil carbon pools. DOE’s E3SM Land Model (ELM) includes a representation of soil carbon storage on minerals, but the potential vulnerability of SOM–mineral associations to effects of rhizodeposition is not yet represented in ELM. To begin testing for this effect of rhizodeposition on soil carbon storage and decomposition, we worked to develop a novel approach during this TES Exploratory project DE-SC0019142 – we harnessed the power of plant viral infection. We examined whether plant virus infection can serve as a tool to intensify rhizodeposition at the root surface, and therefore possibly intensify mobilization of SOM from minerals making it visible to our analytical techniques. Viral infection is widespread in terrestrial ecosystems; 25-70% of plants have virus infection, yet the influence of such infection on root traits and terrestrial soil carbon dynamics remains largely unexplored. We used two plant hosts: the annual Avena sativa (oats) and the genetically tractable, model grass Brachypodium distachyon. These grasses were infected with the broad host range virus Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV) via aphids (Rhopalosiphum padi). BYDV infects at least 150 grass species in agricultural and natural ecosystems, and in previous experiments, oats infected with BYDV had roots that were very sticky to the touch, strongly suggesting that infection altered rhizodeposition. We developed this new experimental approach mostly in a one virus (Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus)–one plant (Avena sativa) system. (Several effects of infection in a Brachypodium-BYDV system were similar in nature to effects on Avena sativa, but were more variable.) In the BYDV-Avena system, we developed protocols for consistently infecting target plants (and avoiding infection of control plants) using aphid caging on leaves. We measured that infected plants exhibited reduced photosynthesis, plant (including root) biomass, and root:shoot ratio, as well as simplified root system architecture. We established procedures for sampling the organic compounds carried specifically in phloem (vascular tissue) of leaves and roots, using aphid stylectomy. We used FTICR-MS, Orbitrap GC-MS, and LC-MS/MS to analyze organic compounds in phloem, liquid around roots of plants grown hydroponically, and pore water around roots in soil, and found differences in the compounds in solution bathing roots when infected and uninfected plants were grown hydroponically. Finally, we synthesized isotopically-labeled mineral–organic matter (MAOM) associations in the lab and developed assays using them in solution and in soil. Assays quantified the extent and rate of mineralization of labeled MAOM that was mobilized by functionally distinct rhizodeposits and then attacked by microbes. Two mechanisms for MAOM mobilization emerged, with distinct dynamics. During “direct” mobilization, rhizodeposits such as the strong ligand oxalic acid could drive rapid dissolution of minerals, mobilizing MAOM. During “indirect” mobilization, rhizodeposits such as the simple sugar glucose did not attack minerals directly but instead intensified microbial activity, which led to mobilization via changes in e.g. pH, Eh, and microbial metabolite production (Li et al. 2021). Mechanistic understanding derived from these data and our ongoing experiments using these techniques will inform future development of ELM. Plant roots not only contribute newly fixed organic compounds to soils, but also root activities can drive mineralization of the carbon and nutrients mobilized off minerals via “indirect” or “direct” mechanisms. Using viral infection as a new tool, ongoing combined experimentation and modeling will explore the strength and larger-scale significance of the cascade of processes from rhizodeposition to MAOM mobilization for soil carbon storage and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. And if viral infection leads quite generally to “sticky roots”, our perception of the potential importance of prevalent virus infection in terrestrial landscapes will be transformed.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeled production, oxidation, and transport processes of wetland methane emissions in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions
Abstract Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere. The eddy covariance method provides robust measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CH 4 , but interpreting its spatiotemporal variations is challenging due to the co‐occurrence of CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport dynamics. Here, we estimate these three processes using a data‐model fusion approach across 25 wetlands in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Our data‐constrained model—iPEACE—reasonably reproduced CH 4 emissions at 19 of the 25 sites with normalized root mean square error of 0.59, correlation coefficient of 0.82, and normalized standard deviation of 0.87. Among the three processes, CH 4 production appeared to be the most important process, followed by oxidation in explaining inter‐site variations in CH 4 emissions. Based on a sensitivity analysis, CH 4 emissions were generally more sensitive to decreased water table than to increased gross primary productivity or soil temperature. For periods with leaf area index (LAI) of ≥20% of its annual peak, plant‐mediated transport appeared to be the major pathway for CH 4 transport. Contributions from ebullition and diffusion were relatively high during low LAI (<20%) periods. The lag time between CH 4 production and CH 4 emissions tended to be short in fen sites (3 ± 2 days) and long in bog sites (13 ± 10 days). Based on a principal component analysis, we found that parameters for CH 4 production, plant‐mediated transport, and diffusion through water explained 77% of the variance in the parameters across the 19 sites, highlighting the importance of these parameters for predicting wetland CH 4 emissions across biomes. These processes and associated parameters for CH 4 emissions among and within the wetlands provide useful insights for interpreting observed net CH 4 fluxes, estimating sensitivities to biophysical variables, and modeling global CH 4 fluxes.
Ueyama, Masahito↗
Revising the dynamic energy budget theory with a new reserve mobilization rule and three example applications to bacterial growth
Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory has been applied to model a wide range of organisms, including microbes. In the standard DEB model, biomass is partitioned into reserve and structural compartments, where reserve biomass is mobilized in a pseudolinear manner (while the reserve biomass density, defined as the ratio between reserve and structural biomass, decays linearly) to drive maintenance and the growth of structural biomass (and extracellular enzyme production if it is considered). However, the linear dynamics of the reserve biomass density makes the standard DEB model incapable of explaining the slowdown of microbial growth at high reserve density that is caused by macromolecular crowding effect which reduces biochemical reaction rates (a typical situation occurs when microbes are experiencing severe moisture stress) and is inconsistent with the observation that intracellular enzymatic reactions generally follow non-linear kinetics. By partitioning biomass into reserve, kinetic, and structural compartments, we show here that the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation (ECA) kinetics can be used to represent enzymatically catalyzed reserve biomass mobilization that can then drive the kinetic and structural biomass synthesis. This revised DEB model better represents the tradeoff in ribosome allocation for structural growth and internal enzyme production, is structurally compatible with metabolic models of cell individuals, and includes the standard DEB model and the popular compromise model as special cases for representing population growth. We then applied the revised DEB model to interpret components of bacterial respiration, their dependence on substrate availability, and emergent microbial carbon use efficiency dynamics for an exponentially growing population. We found that the revised DEB model enables a better understanding of bacterial substrates use (carbon in our examples) than that can be derived from a few other models in the literature. In particular, the revised DEB model explains why carbon use efficiency may first increase, then plateau, and finally decrease with growth rate (and substrate uptake rate), as a function of proteomics. Additionally, the revised DEB model explains why the kinetic biomass compartment needs to be divided to reasonably incorporate proteomic control of microbial growth.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Machine learning models inaccurately predict current and future high-latitude C balances
The high-latitude carbon (C) cycle is a key feedback to the global climate system, yet because of system complexity and data limitations, there is currently disagreement over whether the region is a source or sink of C. Recent advances in big data analytics and computing power have popularized the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to upscale site measurements of ecosystem processes, and in some cases forecast the response of these processes to climate change. Due to data limitations, however, ML model predictions of these processes are almost never validated with independent datasets. To better understand and characterize the limitations of these methods, we develop an approach to independently evaluate ML upscaling and forecasting. We mimic data-driven upscaling and forecasting efforts by applying ML algorithms to different subsets of regional process-model simulation gridcells, and then test ML performance using the remaining gridcells. In this study, we simulate C fluxes and environmental data across Alaska using ecosys, a process-rich terrestrial ecosystem model, and then apply boosted regression tree ML algorithms to training data configurations that mirror and expand upon existing AmeriFLUX eddy-covariance data availability. We first show that a ML model trained using ecosys outputs from currently-available Alaska AmeriFLUX sites incorrectly predicts that Alaska is presently a modeled net C source. Increased spatial coverage of the training dataset improves ML predictions, halving the bias when 240 modeled sites are used instead of 15. However, even this more accurate ML model incorrectly predicts Alaska C fluxes under 21st century climate change because of changes in atmospheric CO 2 , litter inputs, and vegetation composition that have impacts on C fluxes which cannot be inferred from the training data. Our results provide key insights to future C flux upscaling efforts and expose the potential for inaccurate ML upscaling and forecasting of high-latitude C cycle dynamics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗