Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Rind, David.
Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.
The response of the climate system to a temporally and spatially constant amount of volcanic particles is simulated using a general circulation model (GCM). The optical depth of the aerosols is chosen so as to produce approximately the same amount of forcing as results from doubling the present CO2 content of the atmosphere and from the boundary conditions associated with the peak of the last ice age. The climate changes produced by long-term volcanic aerosol forcing are obtained by differencing this simulation and one made for the present climate with no volcanic aerosol forcing. The simulations indicate that a significant cooling of the troposphere and surface can occur at times of closely spaced multiple sulfur-rich volcanic explosions that span time scales of decades to centuries. The steady-state climate response to volcanic forcing includes a large expansion of sea ice, especially in the Southern Hemisphere; a resultant large increase in surface and planetary albedo at high latitudes; and sizable changes in the annually and zonally averaged air temperature.
A general circulation model was used to investigate the sensitivity of Asian and African climate to prescribed changes in boundary conditions with the objective of identifying the relative importance of individual high-latitude glacial boundary conditions on seasonal climate and providing a physical basis for interpreting the paleoclimate record. The circulation model is described and results are presented. Insolation forcing increased summer Asian monsoon winds, while increased high-latitude ice cover strengthened winter Asian trade winds causing decreased precipitation. These factors had little effect on African climate. Cooler North Atlantic sea surface temperatures enhanced winter trade winds over North Africa, southern Asian climate was relatively unaffected. Reducing Asian orography enhanced Asian winter circulation while decreasing the summer monsoon. These model results suggest that African and southern Asian climate respond differently to separate elements of high-latitude climate variability.
The ratio of intracloud lightning (IC) to cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) in thunderstorms is observed to vary with latitude. The reason frequently given for this behavior is that the height of the freezing level, and hence the negative charge center in thunderstorms, varies with latitude, resulting in higher ratios in the tropics compared with those in midlatitudes. This study shows that this hypothesis could well be incorrect. Analysis of cloud and lightning data indicates that the IC/CG ratio is linked to the thickness of the cold cloud region in thunderstorms (0 C to cloud top), rather than to the freezing level height.
The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition.
The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project dataset is used to correlate variations of cloud optical thickness and cloud temperature in today's atmosphere. The analysis focuses on low clouds in order to limit the importance of changes in cloud vertical extent, particle size, and water phase. Coherent patterns of change are observed on several time and space scales. On the planetary scale, clouds in colder, higher latitudes are found to be optically thicker than clouds in warmer, lower latitudes. On the seasonal scale, winter clouds are, for the most part, optically thicker than summer clouds. The logarithmic derivative of cloud optical thickness with temperature is used to describe the sign and magnitude of the optical thickness-temperature correlation. The seasonal, latitudinal, and day-to-day variations of this relation are examined for Northern Hemisphere clouds in 1984. In cold continental clouds, optical thickness increases with temperature, consistent with the temperature variation of the adiabatic cloud water content. In warm continental and in almost all maritime clouds, however, optical thickness decreases with temperature.
A simple parameterization has been developed to simulate global lightning distributions. Convective cloud top height is used as the variable in the parameterization, with different formulations for continental and marine thunderstorms. The parameterization has been validated using two lightning data sets: one global and one regional. In both cases the simulated lightning distributions and frequencies are in very good agreement with the observed lightning data. This parameterization could be used for global studies of lightning climatology; the earth's electric circuit; in general circulation models for modeling global lightning activity, atmospheric NO(x) concentrations, and perhaps forest fire distributions for both the present and future climate; and, possibly, even as a short-term forecasting aid.
Large-scale snow cover anomalies are thought to cause significant changes in the diabatic heating of the earth's surface in such a way as to produce substantial local cooling in the surface temperatures. This theory was tested using the GISS 3D GCM (General Circulation Model). The results of the GCM experiment showed that snow cover caused only a short term local decrease in the surface temperature. In the surface energy budget, reduction in absorbed shortwave radiation and the increased latent heat sink of melting snow contributed to lower temperatures. However, all the remaining heating terms contribute to increasing the net heating over a snow covered surface. The results emphasize the negative feedback which limits the impact of snow cover anomalies over longer time scales.
The hypothesis that, once the Antarctic ozone hole is photochemically generated in the spring, the ozone deficit remains in the stratosphere throughout the year was investigated using a three-dimensional chemical transport model (CTM) for the stratosphere with linearized ozone chemistry. An Antarctic ozone hole was imposed on the basis of observations, and the dynamical dilution of the ozone-depleted air was followed for the next 12 months. The CTM calculations show that the transport of ozone-poor air from the Antarctic vortex results in measurable decreases to column ozone, extending to 30 deg S during the austral summer. By the end of the year, about 70 percent of the initially prescribed ozone deficit is replenished through stratospheric chemistry.
New and published climate-model results are discussed which indicate that global warming favors increased rates of forest disturbance as a result of weather more likely to cause forest fires, convective wind storms, coastal flooding, and hurricanes. New sensitivity tests carried out with a vegetation model indicate that climate-induced increases in disturbance could, in turn, significantly alter the total biomass and compositional response of forests to future warming. An increase in disturbance frequency is also likely to increase the rate at which natural vegetation responses to future climate change. The results reinforce the hypothesis that forests could be significantly altered by the first part of the next century. The modeling also confirms the potential utility of selected time series of fossil pollen data for investigating the poorly understood natural patterns of century-scale climate variability.
The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Three dimensional Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model was used to investigate the effect of doubled carbon dioxide on the middle atmosphere. Carbon dioxide was doubled in both the troposphere and stratosphere, and the sea surface temperatures were increased in accordance with results from the GISS climate model. Additional experiments were run with different sea surface temperature distributions, and doubling the carbon dioxide only in the troposphere or stratosphere.
A global cloud climatology dataset is used to study patterns of cloud optical thickness variation with temperature. The data, which cover the period from July 1983 through June 1995, contain detailed information on the distribution of cloud radiative properties and their diurnal and seasonal variations, as well as information on the vertical distribution of temperature and humidity in the troposphere. For cold low clouds over land, the temperature coefficient of change in optical thickness has a value of about 0.04, which is similar to that deduced from Soviet aircraft observations and derived from thermodynamic considerations for the change of cloud liquid water with temperature. It is suggested that, in this cold-temperature range, cloud optical thickness variations are dominated by changes in the liquid water content of the cloud and that the liquid water content changes in accordance with the thermodynamic theory.
The first attempt to model global lightning distributions by using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM is reported. Three sets of observations showing the relationship between lightning frequency and cloud top height are shown. Zonally averaged lightning frequency observed by satellite are compared with those calculated using the GISS GCM, and fair agreement is found. The change in lightning frequency for a double CO2 climate is calculated and found to be nearly 2.23 x 10 exp 6 extra lightning flashes per day.
Observational evidence suggests that of the tritium produced during nuclear bomb tests that has already reached the ocean, more than twice as much arrived through vapor impact as through precipitation. In the present study, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 8 x 10 deg atmospheric general circulation model is used to simulate tritium transport from the upper atmosphere to the ocean. The simulation indicates that tritium delivery to the ocean via vapor impact is about equal to that via precipitation. The model result is relatively insensitive to several imposed changes in tritium source location, in model parameterizations, and in model resolution. Possible reasons for the discrepancy are explored.
A survey of new and published palaeoclimate data indicates that both the high- and low-latitude North Atlantic regions were characterized by at least three synchronous periods of abrupt climate change during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition. Climate model results suggest that changes in the melting history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet may explain much of this nonlinear response of the climate system to astronomical (Milankovitch) forcing.
Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea-level pressure, precipitation rate, 200mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind generated by two versions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computation grids and the specification of the sea-surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal means of the model fields are shown alongside maps that show the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed and also summarized in tables according to geographic region.
Climate change simulations run with two different resolutions (8 deg by 10 deg and 4 deg by 5 deg) of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies model are used to investigate radiative, dynamical, and regional sensitivities to model grid size. The results show that model resolution affected two key processes in the control runs, moist convection and the nonlinear transfer of kinetic energy into the zonal mean flow. It was found that the finer resolution model has more penetrative convection but less convection overall, with the results that its temperature and wind structure were altered with respect to the coarser grid model.
Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea level pressure, precipitation rate, 200 mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind, generated by two versions of the GISS climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computational grids and the specification of the sea surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal variations of the model fields are shown alongside maps showing the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed, and also summarized in tables according to geographic regions.