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Roads, J. O.

Publications and source records attributed to Roads, J. O..

18 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Global aspects of the Los Alamos general circulation model hydrologic cycle

The global hydrologic cycle in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) is compared to available global observations. Global observations of the water vapor, water-vapor flux and water-vapor flux divergence are derived from the National Meteorological Center's final analysis for the period 1986-1989. The new precipitation data set of Legates and Willmott (1990) is used for the global precipitation observations. Global evaporation is derived as a residual of the precipitation and water-vapor flux divergence. There are a number of similarities as well as discrepancies between the GCM and observations. The large-scale nondivergent and divergent GCM circulations are remarkably similar to the observed circulations; the large-scale GCM precipitation and evaporation patterns are also qualitatively similar to observations. Discrepancies are mainly quantitative and small-scale in nature: the GCM atmosphere is relatively dry which results in a slightly greater evaporation and precipitation rate than is observed; the GCM South Pacific convergence zone is displaced too far to the northwest.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Forecasts of time averages with a numerical weather prediction model

Forecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction model are documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. Error growth in very idealized models is described in order to anticipate various features of these forecasts and in order to anticipate what the results might be if forecasts longer than 10 days were carried out by present day numerical weather prediction models. The data set for this study is described, and the equilibrium spectra and error spectra are documented; then, the total error is documented. It is shown how forecasts can immediately be improved by removing the systematic error, by using statistical filters, and by ignoring forecasts beyond about a week. Temporal variations in the error field are also documented.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Temporal variations in predictability

Those characteristics which most significantly contribute to temporal variations in error growth are presently examined in light of a large ensemble of predictability runs conducted in the course of a long equilibrium run in a two-level, nonlinear, quasi-geostrophic model which incorporates orography. In the error spectrum thus developed, all scales grow with a similar doubling time until saturation is first reached at the smallest scales. Due to a lag relationship between equilibrium kinetic energy and available potential energy, it is possible to marginally predict times of small and large error growth.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Large-scale stationary and turbulent flow over topography

The contributions made to the formation of stationary features of flow over topography by linear and nonlinear dynamics were examined with an integrated quasi-geostrophic model with idealized topographic forcing. The simulation was run out to several months and generated time-averaged values which were compared with those obtained with linear theory. Linear predictions were converted to turbulent features through the addition of stationary, nonlinear thermodynamic and transient vorticity fluxes. The turbulence features matched atmospheric data on energy spectra, the direction and magnitude of energy transfers, and the spatial magnitudes involved. Transient flow transferred the majority of energy absorbed by the upscale flow and, by absorbing energy, reduced the energy of stationary flow while retaining resonance signatures. Instability was a pervasive feature of the topographically forced flow except at high wavenumbers. The results confirm that transient eddies are interactive with both asymmetric and zonal flow and cannot be adequately described by linear theory.

Vallis, G. K.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Forecasts of the 500 mb height using a dynamically oriented statistical model

The forecast skill of a simple dynamically inspired statistical model of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field is evaluated in spectral and physical space for a variety of forecast lead times (1-32 days) and predictand averaging times (1-32 days). The model includes viscous damping, wave propagation, climatology and implicit stochastic forcing. The largest model skill was found for forecasts of the zonal flow and the largest waves. In general, the largest forecast skills were also associated with the largest forecast error, there being a slight geographic phase shift of the skill with respect to the error. Model skills for climate (time-averaged) forecasts are greater when using instantaneous rather than time averages to forecast time averages. Analysis of model errors suggests areas for improvement in representing forcing terms and model physics. However, the model error fields are largely 'white noise' which suggests that global forecast skills substantially larger than those obtained here are unlikely to be achieved by more sophisticated models.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1984

An energy balance climate model with cloud feedbacks

The present two-level global climate model, which is based on the atmosphere-surface energy balance, includes physically based parameterizations for the exchange of heat and moisture across latitude belts and between the surface and the atmosphere, precipitation and cloud formation, and solar and IR radiation. The model field predictions obtained encompass surface and atmospheric temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and cloudiness. In the model integrations presented, it is noted that cloudiness is generally constant with changing temperature at low latitudes. High altitude cloudiness increases with temperature, although the cloud feedback effect on the radiation field remains small because of compensating effects on thermal and solar radiation. The net global feedback by the cloud field is negative, but small.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Predictability of planetary waves - Interhemispheric differences and the effects of stationary forcing

An attempt is made to determine the way in which errors appear in the ultralong waves of numerical weather prediction models, as well as the means by which such errors may be alleviated. Such efforts to improve the numerical forecasting of planetary waves derive their importance from the fact that energetic large scale phenomena are the basis for prospective improvements in extended range forecasting. A simple, linear, quasi-geostrophic and barotropic model is presently used in real data forecast simulations to explore, in an idealized context, several effects that may clarify discrepancies betweeen predictability theory and the performance of current numerical weather prediction models. Attention is given to the degree to which discrepancies may be accounted for by linear theory.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Forced, stationary waves in a linear, stratified, quasi-geostrophic atmosphere

A finite difference model and an approximate WKB analysis were employed to test the validity of three of the Smagorinsky conclusions (1953) regarding the influence of diabatic heating upon the resultant stationary eddies. The conclusions comprised a necessity of including surface friction to avoid resonance, to account for stratospheric influence to accurately estimate the magnitude of the disturbances in the upper third of the troposphere, and the adequacy of the linear model for describing the gross features of sea-level normals at middle and high latitudes. Results of the WKB analysis of the effects of orography and diabatic heating demonstrate that streamfunctions are produced when orography forces a stationary solution. The surface friction is concluded to have a negligible effect on the solutions when the wind speeds are low. The solutions, however, require the presence of a lid for the middle troposphere to eliminate resonance responses.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Predictability of ultralong waves in global and hemispheric quasi-geostrophic barotropic models

A global quasi-geostrophic barotropic model, including orography, zonal forcing, and frictional dissipation, is compared to two hemispheric models, one with antisymmetric equatorial boundary conditions and one with symmetric boundary conditions. The stationary solutions in the global model and the hemispheric models are found to be different, because the hemispheric models lack either the symmetric or antisymmetric waves, and because the nonlinear feedbacks are much larger in the hemispheric models. Time-dependent calculations show that the hemispheric models can excite anomalous Rossby waves and can produce erroneous short-range forecasts in middle latitudes. It is concluded that global models are preferred for making both short-range and long-range forecasts for middle latitudes.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Stable and unstable near-resonant states in multilevel, severely truncated, quasi-geostrophic models

Multilevel, severely truncated, quasi-geostrophic models with damping that extend from the surface to 100 km, are used to study the stationary-wave response to orography and the concomitant feedbacks on the zonal flow. For a typical winter zonal-wind profile, it is shown that large amplitude or resonant planetary waves of intermediate zonal wavenumbers of about 4 or 5 occur with an equivalent barotropic structure. It is also shown that wave-zonal flow interaction with a mountain torque and temperature transport is stable to small perturbations on the low side of resonance and unstable on the high side of resonance. Resonant zonal wavenumbers of lower wave wavenumber also occur for the same zonal profile and have a node in the vertical with a small amplitude maximum near the surface and a larger amplitude maximum in the stratosphere. Instability depends on the presence of the orography and the basic asymmetric state as Newtonian damping and surface friction are sufficient to damp the baroclinic instability associated with a linear inviscid model.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cloud/climate sensitivity experiments

A study of the relationships between large-scale cloud fields and large scale circulation patterns is presented. The basic tool is a multi-level numerical model comprising conservation equations for temperature, water vapor and cloud water and appropriate parameterizations for evaporation, condensation, precipitation and radiative feedbacks. Incorporating an equation for cloud water in a large-scale model is somewhat novel and allows the formation and advection of clouds to be treated explicitly. The model is run on a two-dimensional, vertical-horizontal grid with constant winds. It is shown that cloud cover increases with decreased eddy vertical velocity, decreased horizontal advection, decreased atmospheric temperature, increased surface temperature, and decreased precipitation efficiency. The cloud field is found to be well correlated with the relative humidity field except at the highest levels. When radiative feedbacks are incorporated and the temperature increased by increasing CO2 content, cloud amounts decrease at upper-levels or equivalently cloud top height falls. This reduces the temperature response, especially at upper levels, compared with an experiment in which cloud cover is fixed.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Linear and nonlinear aspects of snow albedo feedbacks in atmospheric models

Namias' hypothesis, that anomalous snowcover on the eastern side of the North American continent can generate an anomalous east coast low pressure system and an anomalous inland high pressure system, is consistent with the time-averaged anomalous response from a nonlinear, primitive equation channel model with an idealized, flat land-sea arrangement. An attempt to understand and describe this anomalous response in the nonlinear model as a linear response to anomalous diabatic heating was largely unsuccessful, primarily because the anomalous eddy fluxes were also important. This unsuccessful attempt to describe the nonlinear model's time averages by linear theory then motivated several comparisons between linear and nonlinear severely truncated quasi-geostrophic models. It was also found in these models that the eddy fluxes were extremely important for forcing or dissipating the stationary eddies.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Quasi-linear blocks forced by orography in a hemispheric, quasi-geostrophic barotropic model

Stationary linear perturbation responses to Northern Hemisphere orography are calculated in a quasi-geostrophic barotropic model in solid-body rotation. The stationary mountain torque induced by these perturbations is then used to construct graphical solutions to the steady-state wave, mean-flow interaction problem. It is shown that multiple solutions exist in the system and are near either the forcing equilibrium of the zonal forcing or near the resonance points in the system. Some of these near-resonance solutions have block-like configurations with a confluence zone upstream from a large-amplitude structure consisting of a high at high latitudes and a low at low latitudes. These block-like configurations are shown to be near stable solutions of the system. Time-dependent calculations show that the initial state and the zonal forcing equilibrium are important in determining the long-term time evolution of the system.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of quasi-geostrophic planetary waves in global and hemispheric domains

Factors which affect the long term predictability, and also the feasibility of defining an ultimate level of weather predictability, are discussed. It is noted that current models yield a one week forecast at the best. Long range predictability, however, is a restriction on the knowledge of evolutive processes of the atmosphere, and does not characterize the prediction of specific atmospheric quantities. The influences of local phenomena such as cyclones and other nonlinear processes can cause planetary waves which affect the predictability of weather everywhere. It is suggested that any successful prediction model will necessarily account for the evolution of ultralong waves. Although significant differences in predictions have been found between hemispheric and global predictions, the location of the errors in extrapolating the hemispheric to the global scale have been identified.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Numerical experiments on the climatic sensitivity of an atmospheric hydrologic cycle

It is shown for an intermediate numerical model that fractional cloudiness and relative humidity decrease with increasing temperature. The fractional cloudiness decreases at a rate about 1 per deg K. This occurs in spite of an increase in the evaporation, water transport, condensation, precipitation and cloud water content with increasing temperature. These results are quite similar to those found from models with more highly parameterized clouds, notably the NCAR model. The fractional cloudiness in this model is measured by the fractional coverage of total cloud water and the fractional coverage of positive condensation, in addition to the relative humidity. It is also shown that some of the characteristics of a temperate climate can be simulated in an intermediate numerical model with periodic, antisymmetric and symmetric boundary conditions on an f plane. Intermediate models of this sort may therefore be useful to investigate general questions about the earth's hydrologic cycle on climatic space and time scales

Roads, J. O.↗