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Roberts, David

Publications and source records attributed to Roberts, David.

Initial Results of the Nuclear Accident Dosimetry Intercomparison at the Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute's TRIGA Reactor

This report presents the initial results for IER-602, the international nuclear accident dosimetry intercomparison performed at the Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute (AFRRI). Ten groups participated (six DOE laboratories, three international groups, and one DOD group) in a week-long exercise in late June 2024. Two additional groups observed the exercise (one DOE laboratory, one university). Three days of irradiations were performed, and participants reported results within 24 hours of the irradiations. Results were compared to the reference values and performance criteria established by IER-484 AFRRI ER1 Dosimetry Characterization and ANSI/HPS N13.3-2013, respectively. Passing performance varied from 17% to 100%, with an average of 67%.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Production of NBL PO plutonium isotopic standards CRM 136A, CRM 137A, and CRM 138A

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) produced approximately 1 mg units of purified Pu from the parent New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) certified reference materials (CRM) 137, 136 and 138 isotopic standards for the NBL Program Office (NBL PO) as detailed in the revised project plan. As stated in the plan, three representative units of each material were dispensed at the same time to be characterized at LLNL and provide informational values for the quantity of Pu and progeny nuclides in each unit. NBL PO intends to collect and evaluate isotopic measurement data from multiple laboratories and certify these materials as new isotopic standards C137A, C136A, and C138A, respectively. Soon after production eleven units of each analytical standard were shipped to other analytical laboratories for the certification effort, and 121, 119, and 119 units of C137A, C136A and C138A, respectively were shipped to Mickey Finch at Y12 NBL distribution center in November 2024 (30-gallon drum, TID 003777 PRL 7000005043). Residual purified Pu from the effort is being stored indefinitely in B332 at LLNL. Detailed methods can be found in the production plan, and this report describes and documents aspects of the production effort that are not in or were modified from the original production plan.

and nuclear chemistry↗

Experiment Logistics for an International Blind Intercomparison Exercise for Nuclear Accident Dosimetry at the Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute's TRIGA Reactor

This document is the Experimental Set-up and Design (CED-3a) Report for IER-602, “Dosimetry Exercise with Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute (AFRRI) - Exercise” The report discusses the structure of the exercise consisting of three reactor exposures, identifying the participating laboratories and their points of contact. The report also includes details of all dosimetry each laboratory will submit to be placed in proximity to AFRRI on aluminum plates or BOMAB phantoms. Each laboratory lists the counting and spectroscopy equipment to be utilized at AFFRI. The exercise is tentatively scheduled for one week in June, 2024 (FY24 Q4).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Godiva-IV Dosimetry Exercise 2022 Preliminary Results

Integral Experiment Request (IER) 538 is part of a series of dose characterization and nuclear accident dosimetry (NAD) exercises performed under the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). This is the second NAD exercise using the Godiva-IV critical assembly and the third NAD exercise overall. The participating laboratories provided their own dosimeters that were mounted on the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) BOttle Manikin ABsorption (BOMAB) phantoms and aluminum plates. The BOMABs and plates were placed at two, three, and four meters away from the center of Godiva. Alongside the NADs, there was a LLNL Passive Neutron Spectrometer (PNS), Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) PNS, and Y-12 Sphere present to measure the neutron dose from Godiva. Two irradiations were conducted to test the NAD performance from each laboratory and assesses their performance to the DOE-STD-1098-2017 part 515 criteria. Neutron and gamma doses were measured prior to this exercise. This work presents a model for the neutron and gamma dose respectively to serve as the reference value. A code written in C/C++/ROOT was used to fit the measured neutron and gamma dose with the new models. It was assumed that the neutron and gamma doses are proportional to the change in temperature of Godiva after a burst irradiation. Uncertainties for the reference values were calculated using error propagation of the model’s parameters. Preliminary results (within twenty-four hours) and final results were compared for each laboratory. On average of all the participating laboratories, 32% of neutron doses and 78% of gamma doses were outside the DOE standards. One laboratory did not report their dose readings and were not included in this average. There is a bias for a lower neutron dose and a higher gamma dose based on the distribution of results. In comparison with the past Godiva-IV NAD exercise, there is an improvement in neutron dose readings by 20%.

BOttle Manikin ABsorption (BOMAB)↗

The impact of energy-efficiency upgrades and other distributed energy resources on a residential neighborhood-scale electrification retrofit

We report ambitious targets for carbon emissions reductions are highlighting new challenges for electrification strategies, leading to an increased focus on building load flexibility and energy management to complement the variability inherent in renewable energy generation. Over the next decade millions of existing homes could undergo electrification retrofits, and there is an urgent need to understand the potential impacts of electrifying major residential loads such as water and space heating on community load characteristics, resident energy bills, and the utility's distribution system. Behind-the-meter distributed energy resources (DERs), including efficiency measures, photovoltaics (PV), battery storage, managed electric vehicle (EV) charging, and controls such as home energy management systems (HEMS), can significantly alter a neighborhood's load profile and provide benefits to both the residents and the grid. We present a novel approach to characterizing the impact of a hypothetical neighborhood-scale residential retrofit program on individual homes' energy use profiles, associated utility bills, and the local distribution system. We modeled a mixed-fuel community of 30 single-family homes in Denver, Colorado, and compared the effects of retrofit scenarios ranging from conventional energy-efficiency upgrades to full electrification with and without more advanced DER technologies. We analyzed which packages of DERs most reliably enable demand flexibility in response to a time-of-use (TOU) rate for this and similar neighborhoods. Our buildings-to-grid co-simulation framework includes a generic secondary distribution feeder model to capture voltage profiles, transformer loading, and other grid impacts in each case. We also calculated the carbon emissions associated with energy use in the community. The methodology developed here can be broadly applied to community-scale beneficial electrification studies in other regions, climates, utility infrastructures, and building typologies to make specific, targeted recommendations based on quantified projections of energy demand in any given community. Our findings indicate that residential electrification can be achieved without negatively impacting the monthly utility bill, and that a combination of conventional energy-efficiency measures, PV, battery, controls, and managed EV charging to maximize a community's demand flexibility is a promising strategy. Adding DERs (especially PV) as part of efficient electrification produces much bigger savings than efficient electrification without DERs. A key barrier is that upgrades require upfront costs, and modest utility bill savings result in long payback periods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Carbon emission responsive building control: A case study with an all-electric residential community in a cold climate

In the United States, buildings account for 35% of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, making them important contributors to decarbonization. Carbon intensities in the power grid are time-varying and can fluctuate significantly within hours, so shifting building loads in response to the carbon intensities can reduce a building’s operational carbon emissions. This paper presents a rule-based carbon responsive control framework that controls the setpoints of thermostatically controlled loads responding to the grid’s carbon emission signals in real time. Based on this framework, four controllers are proposed with different combinations of carbon accounting methods and control rules. To evaluate their performance, we performed simulation studies using models of a 27-home, all-electric, net zero energy residential community located in Basalt, Colorado, United States. The carbon intensity data of four future years from the Cambium data set are adopted to account for the evolving resource mix in the power grid. Various performance metrics, including energy consumption, carbon emission, energy cost, and thermal discomfort, were used to evaluate the performance of the controllers. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine how the control thresholds and intervals affect the controllers’ performance. Simulation results indicate that the carbon responsive controllers can reduce the homes’ annual carbon emissions by 6.0% to 20.5%. However, the energy consumption increased by 0.9% to 6.7%, except in one scenario where it decreased by 2.2%. Compared to the baseline, the change in energy cost was between –2.9% and 3.4%, and thermal discomfort was also maintained within an acceptable range. The little impact on energy cost and thermal discomfort indicates there are no potential roadblocks for customer acceptance when rolling out the controllers in utility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Experiment Logistics for an International Blind Intercomparison Exercise for Nuclear Accident Dosimetry at Godiva-IV

This document is the Experimental Set-up and Design (CED-3A) Report for IER-538, “Full Dosimetry Exercise Around Godiva Reactors” The report discusses the structure of the exercise consisting of two critical excursions, identifying the participating laboratories and their points of contact. The report also includes details of all dosimetry each laboratory will submit to be placed in proximity to Godiva-IV on aluminum plates or BOMAB phantoms. Each laboratory list the counting and spectroscopy equipment to be utilized at the LLNL NAD Laboratory in Mercury. The exercise is tentatively scheduled for one week in fiscal year 2022.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High- quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation (Frick, Eckman, and Goldman 2017; Frick 2019). To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project - End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock - that culminated in the release of a publicly available dataset1 of simulated EULPs representing residential and commercial buildings across the contiguous United States. The motivation for this work is further detailed in a November 2019 report: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps (Mims Frick et al. 2019). This Methodology and Results report provides detailed descriptions of how the dataset was developed, intended for an audience of dataset and model users interested in the technical details. These details include descriptions of all of the model improvements made for calibration and the final comparisons to empirical data sources. A companion report, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Applications and Opportunities, will be published subsequently and will describe example applications and considerations for using the dataset, intended for an audience of general dataset users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation. To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that culminated in this publicly available dataset of calibrated and validated 15-minute resolution load profiles for all major residential and commercial building types and end uses, across all climate regions in the United States. These EULPs were created by calibrating the ResStock and ComStock physics-based building stock models using many different measured datasets, as described in the "Technical Report Documenting Methodology" linked in the submission.

Array↗

High-resolution hourly surrogate modeling framework for physics-based large-scale building stock modeling

Surrogate modeling can play a key role in reducing high computational burdens for large-scale physics-based modeling and uncertainty quantification. With the rapid development of large-scale building stock energy modeling, surrogate modeling has also begun to be widely applied in this field; however, most existing surrogate models lack hourly time resolution for regional-scale modeling, which is essential for understanding building demand profiles and grid impacts. Further, there is generally a lack of necessary data and feature engineering frameworks specific to building modeling for efficiently managing large datasets and complex computations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a modeling framework for large-scale (city-/region-scale), high-resolution, high-fidelity surrogate building stock energy models. Our developed framework consists of six modules: (1) building stock energy modeling (ComStock TM and ResStock TM ), (2) data engineering for large simulation data, (3) high performance computing workflow, (4) feature engineering, (5) machine learning model development, and (6) model performance evaluation. Two case studies apply the developed framework in both residential and commercial building stock analysis to demonstrate its computational efficiency and surrogate modeling accuracies. Results show that surrogate models, when efficiently trained using the HPC workflow module, reach a high level of modeling accuracy for two case studies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Community-scale interaction of energy efficiency and demand flexibility in residential buildings

Demand-side management (DSM) strategies, including energy efficiency (EE) and demand flexibility (DF), contribute to cost-effective operation of the electricity grid. From a system-level perspective, such programs reduce costs, enhance reliability, and reduce network issues. Similarly, DSM programs help participating customers reduce utility bills while maintaining occupant comfort. Understanding the relationship between EE and DF is key to realizing the full potential of DSM programs. In this study, we modeled an all-electric residential community based on a 498-home community that is planned for construction in Fort Collins, Colorado in the United States. We used this community model to study the relationship between different EE measures, including building envelope upgrades and smart appliances, and DF enabled by a home energy management system (HEMS) responding to a time-varying tariff. Various EE levels in the homes – code-minimum, zero energy ready, and even higher levels of envelope efficiency – were simulated. DF is enabled by the HEMS, which coordinates behind-the-meter resources, including flexible building loads, PV, and home battery systems, to minimize utility bills while maintaining occupant comfort. When comparing to the code-minimum homes, EE upgrades alone reduce HVAC energy use during peak hours by up to 50% and the HVAC utility bill by up to $312/year. With the addition of HEMS, the average daily peak demand can be reduced by up to 0.58 MW or 1.2 kW/home in the higher envelope efficiency homes. The combination of EE upgrades, HEMS, and home battery systems is expected to save homeowners up to $590/year while increasing community load flexibility. However, HEMS and home battery systems are less effective in increasing the DF in the more efficient homes due to the lower load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Mission Assurance Modeling and Simulation: A Cyber Security Roadmap

This paper proposes a cyber security modeling and simulation roadmap to enhance mission assurance governance and establish risk reduction processes within constrained budgets. The term mission assurance stems from risk management work by Carnegie Mellon's Software Engineering Institute in the late 19905. By 2010, the Defense Information Systems Agency revised its cyber strategy and established the Program Executive Officer-Mission Assurance. This highlights a shift from simply protecting data to balancing risk and begins a necessary dialogue to establish a cyber security roadmap. The Military Operations Research Society has recommended a cyber community of practice, recognizing there are too few professionals having both cyber and analytic experience. The authors characterize the limited body of knowledge in this symbiotic relationship. This paper identifies operational and research requirements for mission assurance M&S supporting defense and homeland security. M&S techniques are needed for enterprise oversight of cyber investments, test and evaluation, policy, training, and analysis.

Gendron, Gerald↗

Potential markets for advanced satellite communications

This report identifies trends in the volume and type of traffic offered to the U.S. domestic communications infrastructure and extrapolates these trends through the year 2011. To describe how telecommunications service providers are adapting to the identified trends, this report assesses the status, plans, and capacity of the domestic communications infrastructure. Cable, satellite, and radio components of the infrastructure are examined separately. The report also assesses the following major applications making use of the infrastructure: (1) Broadband services, including Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network (BISDN), Switched Multimegabit Data Service (SMDS), and frame relay; (2) mobile services, including voice, location, and paging; (3) Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT), including mesh VSAT; and (4) Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) for audio and video. The report associates satellite implementation of specific applications with market segments appropriate to their features and capabilities. The volume and dollar value of these market segments are estimated. For the satellite applications able to address the needs of significant market segments, the report also examines the potential of each satellite-based application to capture business from alternative technologies.

Adamson, Steven↗