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Roberts, Malcolm J.

Publications and source records attributed to Roberts, Malcolm J..

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ocean Mesoscale and Frontal-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions and Influence on Large-Scale Climate: A Review

Two decades of high-resolution satellite observations and climate modeling studies have indicated strong ocean–atmosphere coupled feedback mediated by ocean mesoscale processes, including semipermanent and meandrous SST fronts, mesoscale eddies, and filaments. The air–sea exchanges in latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, and carbon dioxide associated with this so-called mesoscale air–sea interaction are robust near the major western boundary currents, Southern Ocean fronts, and equatorial and coastal upwelling zones, but they are also ubiquitous over the global oceans wherever ocean mesoscale processes are active. Current theories, informed by rapidly advancing observational and modeling capabilities, have established the importance of mesoscale and frontal-scale air–sea interaction processes for understanding large-scale ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and weather and climate variability. However, numerous challenges remain to accurately diagnose, observe, and simulate mesoscale air–sea interaction to quantify its impacts on large-scale processes. This article provides a comprehensive review of key aspects pertinent to mesoscale air–sea interaction, synthesizes current understanding with remaining gaps and uncertainties, and provides recommendations on theoretical, observational, and modeling strategies for future air–sea interaction research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Structures in the HighResMIP Simulations against Satellite Observations

This study evaluates tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall structures in the CMIP6 HighResMIP global climate model (GCM) simulations against satellite rainfall retrievals. Here, we specifically focus on TCs within the deep tropics (25°S–25°N). Analysis of TC rain rate composites indicates that in comparison to the satellite observations at the same intensity, many HighResMIP simulations tend to overproduce rain rates around TCs, in terms of both maximum rain rate magnitude and area-averaged rain rates. In addition, as model horizontal resolution increases, the magnitude of the peak rain rate appears to increase. However, the area-averaged rain rates decrease with increasing horizontal resolution, partly due to the TC eyewall being located closer to the TC center, thus occupying a smaller area and contributing less to the area-averaged rain rates. The effect of ocean coupling is to lower the TC rain rates, bringing them closer to the satellite observations, due to reduced horizontal moisture flux convergence and surface latent heat flux beneath TCs. Examination of horizontal rain rate distributions indicates that vertical wind shear–induced rainfall asymmetries in HighResMIP-simulated TCs are qualitatively consistent with the observations. In addition, a positive relationship is observed between the area-averaged inner-core rainfall and TC intensification likelihoods across the HighResMIP simulations, as GCM simulations producing stronger TCs more frequently have the greater rainfall close to the center, in agreement with previous theoretical and GCM simulation results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) in two types of experiments, using a climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

Typical Cyclone↗