Engineering topics

Rood, Richard B.

Publications and source records attributed to Rood, Richard B..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2013

The Practitioner's Dilemma: How to Assess the Credibility of Downscaled Climate Projections

Suppose you are a city planner, regional water manager, or wildlife conservation specialist who is asked to include the potential impacts of climate variability and change in your risk management and planning efforts. What climate information would you use? The choice is often regional or local climate projections downscaled from global climate models (GCMs; also known as general circulation models) to include detail at spatial and temporal scales that align with those of the decision problem. A few years ago this information was hard to come by. Now there is Web-based access to a proliferation of high-resolution climate projections derived with differing downscaling methods.

downscaled projections↗

NASA NTRS2005

Fundamentals of Modeling, Data Assimilation, and High-performance Computing

This lecture will introduce the concepts of modeling, data assimilation and high- performance computing as it relates to the study of atmospheric composition. The lecture will work from basic definitions and will strive to provide a framework for thinking about development and application of models and data assimilation systems. It will not provide technical or algorithmic information, leaving that to textbooks, technical reports, and ultimately scientific journals. References to a number of textbooks and papers will be provided as a gateway to the literature.

Rood, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Assimilation of Stratospheric Meteorological and Constituent Observations: A Review

This talk reviews the assimilation of meteorological and constituent observations of the stratosphere. The first efforts to assimilate observations into stratospheric models were during the early 1980s, and a number of research studies followed during the next decade. Since the launch of the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) in 1991, model-assimilated data sets of the stratospheric meteorological state have been routinely available. These assimilated data sets were critical in bringing together observations from the different instruments on UARS as well as linking UARS observations to measurements from other platforms. Using trajectory-mapping techniques, meteorological assimilation analyses are, now, widely used in the analysis of constituent observations and have increased the level of quantitative study of stratospheric chemistry and transport. During the 1990s the use of winds and temperatures from assimilated data sets became standard for offline chemistry and transport modeling. variability in middle latitudes. The transport experiments, however, reveal a set of shortcomings that become obvious as systematic errors are integrated over time. Generally, the tropics are not well represented, mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes is overestimated, and the residual circulation is not accurate. These shortcomings reveal underlying fundamental challenges related to bias and noise. Current studies using model simulation and data assimilation in controlled experimentation are highlighting the issues that must be addressed if assimilated data sets are to be convincingly used to study interannual variability and decadal change. observations. The primary focus has been on stratospheric ozone, but there are efforts that investigate a suite of reactive chemical constituents. Recent progress in ozone assimilation shows the potential of assimilation to contribute to the validation of ozone observations and, ultimately, the retrieval of ozone profiles from space-based radiance measurements. Assimilated data sets provide accurate analyses of synoptic and planetary Scale At the same time, stratospheric assimilation is evolving to include constituent

Rood, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Earth System Model

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

Schoeberl, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2003

Monitoring of Observation Errors in the Assimilation of Satellite Ozone Data

The stratospheric ozone layer protects life on Earth from the harmful effects of solar ultravioiet radiation. The ozone layer is currently in a fragile state because of depletion caused by man-made chemicals, especially chlorofluorocarbons. The state of the ozone layer is being monitored and evaluated by scientific experts around the world, in order to help policy makers assess the impacts of international protocols that control the production and release of ozone depleting chemicals. Scientists use a variety ozone measurements and models in order to form a comprehensive picture about the current state of the ozone layer, and to predict the future behavior (expected to be a recovery, as the abundance of the depleting chemicals decreases). Among the data sets used, those from satellite-borne instruments have the advantage of providing a wealth of information about the ozone distribution over most of the globe. Several instruments onboard American and international satellites make measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, from which atmospheric ozone amounts are estimated; long-term measurement programs enable monitoring of trends in ozone. However, the characteristics of satellite instruments change in time. For example, the instrument lenses through which measurements are made may deteriorate over time, or the satellite orbit may drift so that measurements over each location are made later and later in the day. These changes may increase the errors in the retrieved ozone amounts, and degrade the quality of estimated ozone amounts and of their variability. Our work focuses on combining the satellite ozone data with global models that capture atmospheric motion and ozone chemistry, using advanced statistical techniques: this is known as data assimilation. Our method provides a three-dimensional global ozone distribution that is consistent with both the satellite measurements and with our understanding of processes (described in the models) that control ozone distribution. Through the monitoring of statistical properties of the agreement between the data and the model, this approach also enables us to detect changes in the quality of ozone data retrieved from satellite-borne instrument measurements. This paper demonstrates that calculations of the changes in satellite data quality, and the impact these changes on the estimates of the global ozone distribution, can assist in maintaining the uniform quality of the satellite ozone data throughout the lifetime of these instruments, thus contributing to our understanding of long-term ozone change.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

NASA NTRS2002

Application of Local Discretization Methods in the NASA Finite-Volume General Circulation Model

We present the basic ideas of the dynamics system of the finite-volume General Circulation Model developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for climate simulations and other applications in meteorology. The dynamics of this model is designed with emphases on conservative and monotonic transport, where the property of Lagrangian conservation is used to maintain the physical consistency of the computational fluid for long-term simulations. As the model benefits from the noise-free solutions of monotonic finite-volume transport schemes, the property of Lagrangian conservation also partly compensates the accuracy of transport for the diffusion effects due to the treatment of monotonicity. By faithfully maintaining the fundamental laws of physics during the computation, this model is able to achieve sufficient accuracy for the global consistency of climate processes. Because the computing algorithms are based on local memory, this model has the advantage of efficiency in parallel computation with distributed memory. Further research is yet desirable to reduce the diffusion effects of monotonic transport for better accuracy, and to mitigate the limitation due to fast-moving gravity waves for better efficiency.

Yeh, Kao-San↗

NASA NTRS2002

Monitoring of Observation Errors from Satellite Ozone Instruments in Assimilation

Ozone distributions derived from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instruments and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) have been assimilated in near-real time at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office since January 2000. Observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals are the differences between the incoming ozone data and the co-located short-term model forecast. They are routinely produced and monitored in the assimilation process. Using examples from the NOAA-14 and NOAA-16 SBUV/2 and the EP-TOMS instruments, it is demonstrated that the monitoring of time series of O-F residual statistics is an effective method of identifying time-dependent changes in the observation-error characteristics of ozone. In addition, the data assimilation system was used to assist the validation of updated calibration coefficients for the NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instrument. This assimilation-based monitoring work will be extended to ozone data from instruments on new satellites: Envisat EOS, Aqua, and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivity of Lower Stratospheric Assimilated Ozone on Error Covariance Modeling and Data Selection

Assimilated ozone is produced at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office by blending ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line transport model. The current system tends to overestimate the amount of lower stratospheric ozone. This is a region where ozone plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. Since these are all important applications of assimilated ozone products, effort is being directed towards reducing this bias. The SBUV ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone in the lower stratosphere, and its vertical distribution in particular, are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the assimilated lower stratospheric ozone fields to changes in the TOMS error-covariance modeling and the SBUV data selection has been investigated. The use of a spatially correlated TOMS error covariance model led to improvements in the product. However, withholding the SBUV/2 data for the layer between 63 and 126 hPa typically degraded the product, a result which vindicates the use of this layer ozone product, despite its known errors. These efforts to improve the lower stratospheric distribution will be extended to include a more advanced forecast error covariance model, and by assimilating ozone products from new instruments on Envisat and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Transport in the Lower Tropical Stratosphere in a Global Chemistry and Transport Model

Off-line models of the evolution of stratospheric constituents use meteorological information from a general circulation model (GCM) or from a data assimilation system (DAS). Here we focus on transport in the tropics and between the tropics and middle latitudes. Constituent fields from two simulations are compared with each other and with observations. One simulation uses winds from a GCM and the second uses winds from a DAS that has the same GCM at its core. Comparisons of results from the two simulations with observations from satellite, aircraft, and sondes are used to judge the realism of the tropical transport. Faithful comparisons between simulated fields and observations for O3, CH4, and the age-of-air are found for the simulation using the GCM fields. The same comparisons for the simulation using DAS fields show rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport found in the DAS fields may be due to the failure of the GCM used in the assimilation system to represent the quasi-biennial oscillation. The assimilation system accounts for differences between the observations and the GCM by requiring implicit forcing to produce consistency between the GCM and observations. These comparisons suggest that the physical consistency of the GCM fields is more important to transport characteristics in the lower tropical stratosphere than the elimination bias with respect to meteorological observations that is accomplished by the DAS. The comparisons presented here show that GCM fields are more appropriate for long-term calculations to assess the impact of changes in stratospheric composition because the balance between photochemical and transport terms is likely to be represented correctly.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Transport in the Lower Tropical Stratosphere in a Global Chemistry and Transport Model

A general circulation model (GCM) relies on various physical parameterizations and provides a solution to the atmospheric equations of motion. A data assimilation system (DAS) combines information from observations with a GCM forecast and produces analyzed meteorological fields that represent the observed atmospheric state. An off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM) can use winds and temperatures from a either a GCM or a DAS. The latter application is in common usage for interpretation of observations from various platforms under the assumption that the DAS transport represents the actual atmospheric transport. Here we compare the transport produced by a DAS with that produced by the particular GCM that is combined with observations to produce the analyzed fields. We focus on transport in the tropics and middle latitudes by comparing the age-of-air inferred from observations of SF6 and CO2 with the age-of-air calculated using GCM fields and DAS fields. We also compare observations of ozone, total reactive nitrogen, and methane with results from the two simulations. These comparisons show that DAS fields produce rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport produced by the DAS fields may be due to implicit forcing that is required by the assimilation process when there is bias between the GCM forecast and observations that are combined to produce the analyzed fields. For example, the GCM does not produce a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is present in the analyzed fields because it is present in the observations, and systematic implicit forcing is required by the DAS. Any systematic bias between observations and the GCM forecast used to produce the DAS analysis is likely to corrupt the transport produced by the analyzed fields. Evaluation of transport in the lower tropical stratosphere in a global chemistry and transport model.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Evolution of Stratospheric Data Assimilation Systems

The use of model-assimilated meteorological observations for stratospheric research has become routine since the late 1980's. The first stratospheric assimilation systems were straightforward extensions of systems developed for tropospheric weather forecasting. During the 1990's systems were developed that more directly addressed the specifics of stratospheric applications. These developments include better treatment of the satellite observations and improved models that better represent the residual circulation in the assimilated data sets. This talk will review the evolution of stratospheric data assimilation and its application, especially to problems of tracer transport. The new data assimilation currently under validation at NASA will be described in some detail, and results from the validation exercise will be presented. This data assimilation system sits at the foundation of a proposed stratospheric reanalysis that covers the era of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS).

Rood, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

US Reanalysis for Climate and Chemistry Applications

The Data Assimilation Office will perform a short reanalysis with its next-generation data assimilation system. This reanalysis will start a few months prior to the eruption of El Chichon and continue to real time. It will cover the entire time span of the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite mission, and it is expected to be used in chemistry and climate applications. The sorts of improvements that are expected with this system and the status will be presented. In addition there has been a call in the United States for a National Reanalysis Project. This is envisioned as a sustained multi-agency activity coordinated (staggered) with the ECMWF reanalysis. The plans for the National Reanalysis Project will be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Constituent Data Assimilation: Challenges and Limitations

The assimilation of observations of atmospheric constituents naturally divides into two major pieces. The first is the assimilation of trace gases whose variability is related to atmospheric motions. The second is the assimilation of trace gases which are sharply influenced by chemical exchange between different constituents. In order to advance beyond the initial successes of explorative investigation of assimilation techniques, tremendous challenges must be met to improve the geophysical integrity of assimilated data products. A subject of special interest is ozone near the tropopause. At the tropopause the information from both the observations and the model simulation becomes most uncertain. However a number of important geophysical parameters, e.g. stratosphere-troposphere exchange and tropospheric ozone, require the assimilation to have high accuracy at the tropopause. This talk will review the current status of the quality of assimilated data products near the tropopause, what must be done to improve the assimilation near the tropopause, and the intrinsic limitations that will require additional sources of information in order for the field to advance.

Rood, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Impact of Withholding Observations from TOMS or SBUV Instruments on the GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System

In a data assimilation system (DAS), model forecast atmospheric fields, observations and their respective statistics are combined in an attempt to produce the best estimate of these fields. Ozone observations from two instruments are assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ozone DAS: the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument. The assimilated observations are complementary; TOMS provides a global daily coverage of total column ozone, without profile information, while SBUV measures ozone profiles and total column ozone at nadir only. The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the ozone assimilation system in the absence of observations from one of the instruments as it can happen in the event of a failure of an instrument or when there are problems with an instrument for a limited time. Our primary concern is for the performance of the GEOS ozone DAS when it is used in the operational mode to provide near real time analyzed ozone fields in support of instruments on the Terra satellite. In addition, we are planning to produce a longer term ozone record by assimilating historical data. We want to quantify the differences in the assimilated ozone fields that are caused by the changes in the TOMS or SBUV observing network. Our primary interest is in long term and large scale features visible in global statistics of analysis fields, such as differences in the zonal mean of assimilated ozone fields or comparisons with independent observations, While some drifts in assimilated fields occur immediately, after assimilating just one day of different observations, the others develop slowly over several months. Thus, we are also interested in the length of time, which is determined from time series, that is needed for significant changes to take place.

Stajner, Ovanka↗

NASA NTRS2000

Coupled-Circulation-Chemistry Studies with the Finite-Volume CCM: Trace Gas Transport in the Tropopause Region

A joint project between the Data Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC and NCAR involves linking the physical packages from the Community Climate Model (CCM) with the flux-form semi-Lagrangian dynamical core developed by Lin and Rood in the DAO. A further development of this model includes the implementation of a chemical package developed by Douglass and colleagues in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch at NASA GSFC. Results from this coupled dynamics-radiation-chemistry model will be presented, focussing on trace gas transport in the tropopause region.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2000

Towards a Comprehensive Dynamic-chemistry Assimilation for Eos-Chem: Plans and Status in NASA's Data Assimilation Office

In order to support the EOS-Chem project, a comprehensive assimilation package for the coupled chemical-dynamical system is being developed by the Data Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC. This involves development of a coupled chemistry/meteorology model and of data assimilation techniques for trace species and meteorology. The model is being developed using the flux-form semi-Lagrangian dynamical core of Lin and Rood, the physical parameterizations from the NCAR Community Climate Model, and atmospheric chemistry modules from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics branch at NASA GSFC. To date the following results have been obtained: (i) multi-annual simulations with the dynamics-radiation model show the credibility of the package for atmospheric simulations; (ii) initial simulations including a limited number of middle atmospheric trace gases reveal the realistic nature of transport mechanisms, although there is still a need for some improvements. Samples of these results will be shown. A meteorological assimilation system is currently being constructed using the model; this will form the basis for the proposed meteorological/chemical assimilation package. The latter part of the presentation will focus on areas targeted for development in the near and far terms, with the objective of Providing a comprehensive assimilation package for the EOS-Chem science experiment. The first stage will target ozone assimilation. The plans also encompass a reanalysis (ReSTS) for the 1991-1995 period, which includes the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the time when a large number of UARS observations were available. One of the most challenging aspects of future developments will be to couple theoretical advances in tracer assimilation with the practical considerations of a real environment and eventually a near-real-time assimilation system.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2000

Results from NASA's Near Real Time Ozone Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction applications. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. Aside from providing a global synoptic map, there is verifiable geophysical information at higher vertical resolution than either of the date types input into the system. This talk will establish the validation results and enumerate applications of the ozone data assimilation system. Results from exploratory research will be presented. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗