Unveiling Aerosol Impacts on Deep Convective Clouds: Scientific Concept, Modeling, Observational Analysis, and Future Direction
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Aerosol cloud interactions↗
Engineering topics
Rosenfeld, Daniel
Publications and source records attributed to Rosenfeld, Daniel.
Can we mitigate tropical cyclone formation using aerosols? A review of cyclogenesis and aerosol effects as a theoretical basis
Tropical cyclogenesis is a complex phenomenon, involving processes across multiple scales, with various theories proposed to explain its mechanisms. This paper provides an up-to-date summary of the established physical mechanisms and controlling factors of cyclogenesis. Understanding the nature of tropical cyclone formation is necessary to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and inform tropical cyclone mitigation strategies targeting early-stage intervention. Despite the disparities among theories, the critical role of persistent, intensified convection in tropical cyclone initiation is universally acknowledged. Therefore, our hypothesis is that interrupting convective development using aerosol injection is a potential strategy for mitigating tropical cyclone formation. Targetted injection of coarse and fine aerosols at the formation stage are two proposed potential approaches for mitigating tropical cyclones. These methods have completely different microphysical effects but each may ultimately interfere with the formation of the nascent cyclone. In conclusion, these potential interventions open new areas of further research, which are important and necessary to establish a solid scientific foundation for cyclogenesis mitigation.
Tropical cyclone formation↗
Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation
Aerosols have been proposed to influence precipitation rates and spatial patterns from scales of individual clouds to the globe. However, large uncertainty remains regarding the underlying mechanisms and importance of multiple effects across spatial and temporal scales. Here, in this study, we review the evidence and scientific consensus behind these effects, categorized into radiative effects via modification of radiative fluxes and the energy balance, and microphysical effects via modification of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Broad consensus and strong theoretical evidence exist that aerosol radiative effects (aerosol–radiation interactions and aerosol–cloud interactions) act as drivers of precipitation changes because global mean precipitation is constrained by energetics and surface evaporation. Likewise, aerosol radiative effects cause well-documented shifts of large-scale precipitation patterns, such as the intertropical convergence zone. The extent of aerosol effects on precipitation at smaller scales is less clear. Although there is broad consensus and strong evidence that aerosol perturbations microphysically increase cloud droplet numbers and decrease droplet sizes, thereby slowing precipitation droplet formation, the overall aerosol effect on precipitation across scales remains highly uncertain. Global cloud-resolving models provide opportunities to investigate mechanisms that are currently not well represented in global climate models and to robustly connect local effects with larger scales. This will increase our confidence in predicted impacts of climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Improving Our Fundamental Understanding of the Role of Aerosol Cloud Interactions in the Climate System
The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.
general circulation models↗
Reply to Comment by S. E. Yuter et al. on 'Why do Tornados and Hailstorms Rest on Weekends?'
We show here that none of the concerns of Yuter et al. [2013, hereinafter Y2013] have any validity. We use this opportunity to clarify issues that may have been misunderstood by some readers (Y2013 among them) of Rosenfeld and Bell [2011, hereinafter RB2011], elaborate on our explanations there and further substantiate the evidence showing the impacts of aerosols on severe convective storms and the ways by which they are manifested in the weekly cycle. [2] Y2013 raise two general questions concerning the evidence for a weekly cycle of tornadoes given by RB2011: (1) whether the statistical analysis is valid, and (2) whether the discussion of physical mechanisms that explain the weekly cycle is correct. [3] In section 2, we show that there is no basis for the criticisms of Y2013 concerning the physical mechanisms proposed in RB2011 behind the observed changes in tornado activity and show further the mechanism by which aerosols can modulate tornadoes. Most of the comments by Y2013 appear to result from a misunderstanding and misinterpretation of RB2011. In section 3, we show that the comments by Y2013 concerning the statistical analysis are either incorrect or irrelevant. Some of the questions they raised were already answered previously by RB2011, and references therein. We also show that the complaint of Y2013, that the spatial averaging used in RB2011 inappropriately blends tornado behavior of different kinds in different regions, is unfounded.
severe storms↗
Why do Tornados and Hail Storms Rest on Weekends?
When anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern USA during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hail storm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in storm activity is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud-drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller, delaying precipitation-forming processes and their evaporation, and hence affecting cloud dynamics.
Rosenfeld, Daniel↗
Weekly Cycle of Lightning: Evidence of Storm Invigoration by Pollution
We have examined summertime 1998 2009 U.S. lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to look for weekly cycles in lightning activity. As was found by Bell et al. (2008) for rain over the southeast U.S., there is a significant weekly cycle in afternoon lightning activity that peaks in the middle of the week there. The weekly cycle appears to be reduced over population centers. Lightning activity peaks on weekends over waters near the SE U.S. The statistical significance of weekly cycles over the western half of the country is generally small. We found no evidence of a weekly cycle of synoptic-scale forcing that might explain these patterns. The lightning behavior is entirely consistent with the explanation suggested by Bell et al. (2008) for the cycles in rainfall and other atmospheric data from the SE U.S., that aerosols can cause storms to intensify in humid, convectively unstable environments.
Bell, Thomas L.↗
Comment on "Weekly Precipitation Cycles? Lack of Evidence from United States Surface Stations"
There is a good deal of interest lately in whether or not rainfall varies with the day of the week in response to the weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of such changes in the U.S. would be from the weekly variations in pollution levels that are known to occur throughout the country. A paper on this topic will soon be published by the Journal of Geophysical Research entitled, "Midweek Increase in U.S. Summer Rain and Storm Heights Suggests Air Pollution Invigorates Rainstorms, by T. L. Bell, D. Rosenfeld, K.-M. Kim, J.-M. Yoo, M.-I. Lee, and M. Hahnenberger (referred to here as "Bell et al."). A paper by D. M. Schultz and co-authors was recently published in Geophysical Research Letters that claimed to contradict some of the results in Bell et al. The paper can be found here: . Our Comment points out that Schultz and co-authors ignored the fact that the results from satellite data obtained by Bell et al. were for a later time period than Schultz et al. examined, and that Bell et al. in fact also analyzed rainfall data for the same time period as Schultz et al. and, like them, also failed to find signs of a weekly cycle in rainfall during this time period. The contradictions claimed by Schultz et al. are non-existent. We point out some other problems with the methods and presentation by Schultz et al.
Bell, Thomas L.↗
Midweek Increase in U.S. Summer Rain and Storm Heights, Suggests Air Pollution Invigorates Rainstorms
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data show a significant midweek increase in summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S., due to afternoon intensification. TRMM radar data show a significant midweek increase in rain area and in the heights reached by afternoon storms. Weekly variations in model-reanalysis wind patterns over the region and in rain-gauge data are consistent with the satellite data. A midweek decrease of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic is also seen. EPA measurements of particulate concentrations show a midweek peak over much of the U.S. These observations are consistent with the theory that anthropogenic air pollution suppresses cloud-drop coalescence and early rainout during the growth of thunderstorms over land, allowing more water to be carried above the 0 C isotherm, where freezing yields additional latent heat, invigorating the storms--most dramatically evidenced by the shift in the midweek distribution of afternoon-storm heights--and producing large ice hydrometeors. The enhanced convection induces regional convergence, uplifting and an overall increase of rainfall. Compensating downward air motion suppresses convection over the adjacent ocean areas. Pre-TRMM-era data suggest that the weekly cycle only became strong enough to be detectable beginning in the 1980's. Rain-gauge data also suggest that a weekly cycle may have been detectable in the 1940's, but with peak rainfall on Sunday or Monday, possibly explained by the difference in composition of aerosol pollution at that time. This "weekend effect" may thus offer climate researchers an opportunity to study the regional climate-scale impact of aerosols on storm development and monsoon-like circulation.
Bell, Thomas L.↗
Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution
Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.
Bell, Thomas L.↗
Classification of rain regimes by the three-dimensional properties of reflectivity fields
An automated scheme to characterize precipitation echoes within small windows in the radar field is presented and applied to previously subjectively classified tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia. The classification parameters are (a) E(sub e), effective efficiency, as determined by cloud-top and cloud-base water vapor saturation mixing ratios; (b) BBF, brightband fraction, as determined by the fraction of the radar echo area in which the maximal reflectivity occurs within +/- 1.5 km of the 0 C isotherm level; and (c) del(sub r) Z, radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km). These classification criteria were applied to tropical rain cloud systems near Darwin, Australia, and to winter convective rain cloud systems in Israel. Both sets of measurements were made with nearly identical networks of C-band radars and rain gauge networks. The results of the application of these objective classification criteria to several independently predetermined rain regimes in Darwin have shown that better organized rain systems have smaller del(sub r) Z and larger BBF. Similarly, smaller del(sub r)Z and larger BBF were also observed from maritime rain cloud systems, as compared to continental rain cloud systems with the same degree of organization. Continental rain cloud system, regardless of their degree of organization, have larger depths, as expressed by E(sub e). The rainfall analyses presented in this study are based exclusively on rain gauge measurements, while radar information was used only to classify the individual gauge measurements.
Rosenfeld, Daniel↗
Improved accuracy of radar WPMM estimated rainfall upon application of objective classification criteria
Application of the window probability matching method to radar and rain gauge data that have been objectively classified into different rain types resulted in distinctly different Z(sub e)-R relationships for the various classifications. These classification parameters, in addition to the range from the radar, are (a) the horizontal radial reflectivity gradients (dB/km); (b) the cloud depth, as scaled by the effective efficiency; (c) the brightband fraction within the radar field window; and (d) the height of the freezing level. Combining physical parameters to identify the type of precipitation and statistical relations most appropriate to the precipitation types results in considerable improvement of both point and areal rainfall measurements. A limiting factor in the assessment of the improved accuracy is the inherent variance between the true rain intensity at the radar measured volume and the rain intensity at the mouth of the rain guage. Therefore, a very dense rain gauge network is required to validate most of the suggested realized improvement. A rather small sample size is required to achieve a stable Z(sub e)-R relationship (standard deviation of 15% of R for a given Z(sub e)) -- about 200 mm of rainfall accumulated in all guages combined for each classification.
Rosenfeld, Daniel↗
A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data
The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.
Short, David A.↗
C-band attenuation by tropical rainfall in Darwin, Australia, using climatologically tuned Z(e)-R relations
The probability matching method (PMM) is used as a basis for estimating attenuation in tropical rains near Darwin, Australia. PMM provides a climatological relationship between measured radar reflectivity and rain rate, which includes the effects of rain and cloud attenuation. When the radar sample is representative, PMM estimates the rainfall without bias. When the data are stratified for greater than average rates, the method no longer compensates for the higher attenuation and the radar rainfall estimates are biased low. The uncompensated attenuation is used to estimate the climatological attenuation coefficient. The two-way attenuation coefficient was found to be 0.0085 dB/km ( mm/h) exp -1.08 for the tropical rains and associated clouds in Darwin for the first two months of the year for horizontally polarized radiation at 5.63 GHz. This unusually large value is discussed. The risks of making real-time corrections for attenuation are also treated.
Atlas, David↗
General probability-matched relations between radar reflectivity and rain rate
An improved method for transforming radar-observed reflectivities Ze into rain rate R is presented. The method is based on a formulation of a Ze-R function constrained such that (1) the radar-retrieved pdf of R and all of its moments are identical to those determined from the gauges over a sufficiently large domain, and (2) the fraction of the time that it is raining above a low but still has an accurately measurable rain intensity is identical for both the radar and for simultaneous measurements of collocated gauges on average. Data measured by a 1.65-deg beamwidth C-band radar and 22 gauges located in the vicinity of Darwin, Australia, are used. The resultant Ze-R functions show a strong range dependence, especially for the rain regimes characterized by strong reflectivity gradients and substantial attenuation. The application of these novel Ze-R functions to the radar data produces excellent matches to the gauge measurements without any systematic bias.
Rosenfeld, Daniel↗
Beamwidth effects on Z-R relations and area-integrated rainfall
The effective radar reflectivity Ze measured by a radar is the convolution of the actual distribution of reflectivity with the beam radiation pattern. Because of the nonlinearity between Z and rain rate R, Ze gives a biased estimator of R whenever the reflectivity field is nonuniform. In the presence of sharp horizontal reflectivity gradients, the measured pattern of Ze extends beyond the actual precipitation boundaries to produce false precipitation echoes. When integrated across the radar image of the storm, the false echo areas contribute to the sum to produce overestimates of the areal rainfall. As the range or beamwidth increases, the ratio of measured to actual rainfall increases. Beyond some range, the normal decrease of reflectivity with height dominates and the measured rainfall underestimates the actual amount.
Rosenfeld, Daniel↗
New approach to radar rainfall measurement
This paper integrates individual studies of the Area-Time Integrals method and climatic tuning methods. The latter is extended to a new approach which generalizes the technique so that it is no longer restricted to power law relations between effective reflectivity and rain rate.
Atlas, David↗