Engineering topics

Rosenzweig, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Rosenzweig, C..

11 records

DOE OSTI2020

Burning Embers: Towards more transparent and robust climate change risk assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the “burning embers” diagram. Burning embers were first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate risks from various systems and sectors. In these diagrams, colour transitions show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of climate change indicated by increasing levels of global mean temperature. Here we review the approach to the construction of burning embers, its evolution across the various IPCC reports, and recent methodological advances in the elicitation process to reduce subjectivity in the expert judgement and improve the transparency of the assessment. We recommend the use of a standardized, transparent process of expert elicitation in the production of burning embers diagrams to enhance their quality, comparability, and credibility.

Zommers, Zinta↗

NASA NTRS2018

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields Under Climate Change

A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

Basso, B.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Benchmark Data Set for Wheat Growth Models: Field Experiments and AgMIP Multi-Model Simulations.

The data set includes a current representative management treatment from detailed, quality-tested sentinel field experiments with wheat from four contrasting environments including Australia, The Netherlands, India and Argentina. Measurements include local daily climate data (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, surface wind, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and vapor pressure), soil characteristics, frequent growth, nitrogen in crop and soil, crop and soil water and yield components. Simulations include results from 27 wheat models and a sensitivity analysis with 26 models and 30 years (1981-2010) for each location, for elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes, a heat stress sensitivity analysis at anthesis, and a sensitivity analysis with soil and crop management variations and a Global Climate Model end-century scenario.

climate change impact↗

NASA NTRS2015

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

ARC3.2 presents a broad synthesis of the latest scientific research on climate change and cities. Mitigation and adaptation climate actions of 100 cities are documented throughout the 16 chapters, as well as online through the ARC3.2 Case Study Docking Station. Pathways to Urban Transformation, Major Findings, and Key Messages are highlighted here in the ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. These sections lay out what cities need to do achieve their potential as leaders of climate change solutions. UCCRN Regional Hubs in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Asia will share ARC3.2 findings with local city leaders and researchers. The ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders synthesizes Major Findings and Key Messages on urban climate science, disasters and risks, urban planning and design, mitigation and adaptation, equity and environmental justice, economics and finance, the private sector, urban ecosystems, urban coastal zones, public health, housing and informal settlements, energy, water, transportation, solid waste, and governance. These were based on climate trends and future projections for 100 cities around the world.

Ecosystems↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Bright is the New Black - Multi-Year Performance of Generic High-Albedo Roofs in an Urban Climate

High-albedo white and cool roofing membranes are recognized as a fundamental strategy that dense urban areas can deploy on a large scale, at low cost, to mitigate the urban heat island effect. We are monitoring three generic white membranes within New York City that represent a cross-section of the dominant white membrane options for U.S. flat roofs: (1) an ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber membrane; (2) a thermoplastic polyolefin (TPO) membrane and; (3) an asphaltic multi-ply built-up membrane coated with white elastomeric acrylic paint. The paint product is being used by New York City s government for the first major urban albedo enhancement program in its history. We report on the temperature and related albedo performance of these three membranes at three different sites over a multi-year period. The results indicate that the professionally installed white membranes are maintaining their temperature control effectively and are meeting the Energy Star Cool Roofing performance standards requiring a three-year aged albedo above 0.50. The EPDM membrane however shows evidence of low emissivity. The painted asphaltic surface shows high emissivity but lost about half of its initial albedo within two years after installation. Given that the acrylic approach is an important "do-it-yourself," low-cost, retrofit technique, and, as such, offers the most rapid technique for increasing urban albedo, further product performance research is recommended to identify conditions that optimize its long-term albedo control. Even so, its current multi-year performance still represents a significant albedo enhancement for urban heat island mitigation.

Gaffin, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Interactions of CO2, temperature and management practices: simulations with a modified version of CERES-Wheat

A new growth subroutine was developed for CERES-Wheat, a computer model of wheat (Triticum aestivum) growth and development. The new subroutine simulates canopy photosynthetic response to CO2 concentrations and light levels, and includes the effects of temperature on canopy light-use efficiency. Its performance was compared to the original CERES-Wheat V-2 10 in 30 different cases. Biomass and yield predictions of the two models were well correlated (correlation coefficient r > 0.95). As an application, summer growth of spring wheat was simulated at one site. Modeled crop responses to higher mean temperatures, different amounts of minimum and maximum warming, and doubled CO2 concentrations were compared to observations. The importance of irrigation and nitrogen fertilization in modulating the wheat crop climatic responses were also analyzed. Specifically, in agreement with observations, rainfed crops were found to be more sensitive to CO2 increases than irrigated ones. On the other hand, low nitrogen applications depressed the ability of the wheat crop to respond positively to CO2 increases. In general, the positive effects of high CO2 on grain yield were found to be almost completely counterbalanced by the negative effects of high temperatures. Depending on how temperature minima and maxima were increased, yield changes averaged across management practices ranged from -4% to 8%.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modelling the hydrological cycle in assessments of climate change

The predictions of climate change studies depend crucially on the hydrological cycles embedded in the different models used. It is shown here that uncertainties in hydrological processes and inconsistencies in both climate and impact models limit confidence in current assessments of climate change. A future course of action to remedy this problem is suggested.

Rind, D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought

The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Rind, D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration

A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.

Abramopoulos, F.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Global digital data sets of soil type, soil texture, surface slope and other properties: Documentation of archived data tape

The file structure and coding of four soils data sets derived from the Zobler (1986) world soil file is described. The data were digitized on a one-degree square grid. They are suitable for large-area studies such as climate research with general circulation models, as well as in forestry, agriculture, soils, and hydrology. The first file is a data set of codes for soil unit, land-ice, or water, for all the one-degree square cells on Earth. The second file is a data set of codes for texture, land-ice, or water, for the same soil units. The third file is a data set of codes for slope, land-ice, or water for the same units. The fourth file is the SOILWRLD data set, containing information on soil properties of land cells of both Matthews' and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) sources. The fourth file reconciles land-classification differences between the two and has missing data filled in.

Staub, B.↗