Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Ruth, Mark F.
H2@Scale is a concept where hydrogen is an energy carrier that complements electricity and the natural gas system. This presentation summarizes the motivation for developing the H2@Scale concept and provides estimates of how large the hydrogen market could be.
H2@Scale is a concept where hydrogen is an energy intermediate that complements the electricity grid and natural gas system. Hydrogen can be a valuable feedstock for oil and biofuel refining, ammonia production, steel production, and converting carbon dioxide to valuable products due to its chemical properties. It can also be a valuable energy carrier for transportation because it can be fast-filled, stored energy on fuel cell electric vehicles as well as providing storage for the grid. In addition, hydrogen is one of the few non-carbon emitting options to achieve high temperatures needed in industrial processes. If a hydrogen demand is available, hydrogen can be economically produced from variable renewable electricity (e.g., wind, photovoltaic solar) thus increasing the economically viable penetrations of those generation technologies. Likewise, hydrogen is an alternative product that can provide revenue to economically challenged nuclear power plants. This presentation summarizes the demand potential for hydrogen, the technical potential of resources that could be used to produce it, and a number of economic potential scenarios that identify key markets and technology development necessary to compete in them.
The H2@Scale concept includes a value proposition for electrolysis that benefits both hydrogen markets and the electricity system. Electrolysis has the potential to be an alternative low-cost hydrogen source by using low-price electricity that may be available for only a limited number of hours annually. It also has the potential to provide value to the grid through use of that low-cost electricity. By doing so, electrolysis can create a price floor which could support additional investment in low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) generation such as photovoltaic solar, wind, and nuclear. The rapid-response characteristics of low-temperature electrolysis enables it to also provide ancillary services to the grid such as operating reserves and frequency control. We evaluate the economic performance of water electrolysis in a selection of electricity markets - both current and potential future markets. To perform that evaluation, we collect locational marginal prices (LMPs) in each market, calculate levelized hydrogen costs, and compare them to cost estimates of producing hydrogen via steam methane reforming of natural gas. Those calculations also include electolyzer capital and operating costs. We perform the calculations across a range of capacity factors to identify the minimum levelized hydrogen cost in that range. We discuss the implications of that capacity factor for each market analyzed. For a couple of the analyzed electricity markets, we include the potential value of providing ancillary services in the calculation and discuss those impacts. LDE generation has been shown to suppress electricity prices because it generates electricity when the resource is available (i.e., the sun is shining, wind is blowing, nuclear heat is being produced) and the generation cannot be reduced without an economic penalty. Price suppression is likely to reduce investment in those technologies due to reductions in projected income of each marginal unit. If electrolyzers are willing to pay for the LDE, it could provide a price floor for electricity. We analyze how setting a price for LDE could impact the electricity generation fleet, the availability of LDE, and the potential levelized costs of producing hydrogen using that LDE. Among other results, we will present a set of supply curves showing potential production costs and availability for hydrogen produced from LDE in a future with high penetrations of renewable electricity on the grid.
The H2@Scale concept envisions hydrogen as an energy intermediate across multiple energy sectors. The concept is motivated both by the opportunity to produce hydrogen from low-cost energy resources, and by the many potential applications of hydrogen, including as energy for transportation - used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, and to upgrade oil and biomass - feedstock for industry (e.g., for ammonia production, metals refining, and other end uses), heat for industry and buildings, and electricity storage. A key hydrogen production opportunity is using variable renewable electricity (i.e., electricity generated by wind turbines or solar photovoltaic panels) during hours when generation exceeds the load on the grid as a source of low-cost, dispatch constrained electricity (LDE). In addition to producing low-cost hydrogen, electrolysis can also serve as a form of responsive load on the electric grid, which can enhance grid stability, reduce curtailment, and create a supplementary revenue stream for generators. The future use and adoption of hydrogen across end-use applications depends both the cost of hydrogen production and on each application's threshold price (i.e., the maximum price each application will pay for hydrogen - above that price, the application has an alternative that is more economic). We estimate economic potential of the hydrogen market - the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to produce and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen - by developing supply and demand curves for hydrogen production and use. The demand curves are based on the threshold price for various quantities of hydrogen in each market, which is affected by projected prices for alternatives that could provide the same service (e.g., fuel for vehicles, feedstock for metals refining). The supply curves include hydrogen produced via natural gas steam methane reforming, high-temperature electrolysis coupled with nuclear power plants, biomass gasification, and low-temperature electrolysis using LDE. We use a range of market and technology-advancement assumptions to estimate the economic potential for five scenarios in the mid 21st century timeframe, and the corresponding impacts on energy use and emissions. We estimate hydrogen's economic potential to be 14-48 MMT/yr in the contiguous United States - corresponding to 1.5-5 times current annual consumption - depending on key assumptions about the future market conditions and the success of hydrogen production research and development (R&D) in our five scenarios. As a result of the estimated economic potential markets, we also approximate that grid-integrated electrolysis can increase the penetration of wind generation in the electricity market by providing a value stream for LDE, and that total U.S. fossil fuel use could decline below a scenario with high renewable penetration on the grid. We find that hydrogen has potential to provide technical and economic synergies when integrated across multiple sectors of the U.S. energy system, but continued R&D, infrastructure, and market development for LDE are required.
This presentation summarizes the current analysis status of H2@Scale's technical and economic potential. It provides preliminary results and discusses the drivers of those results for each of the five economic potential scenarios.
The 'H2@Scale' concept focuses on the opportunity for hydrogen to be an energy intermediate like electricity that supports both production opportunities and demand applications. Hydrogen is complementary to electricity because of its inherent capability to be stored. It can also be produced easily from electricity and is fungible with a variety of applications. This presentation summarizes the H2@Scale analysis efforts performed during the latter half of 2017 and the first third of 2018. The analysis focused on the technical and economic potential for hydrogen and found that the technical potential is 87 million metric tons (MMT) annually. The analysis shows sufficient wind and solar resources to meet that demand. Four economic potential scenarios are also presented. Their market sizes, prices, sources, and applications are estimated through development of national supply and demand curves and using them to estimate market equilibria. The resulting market size ranges from 16 MMT/yr to 31 MMT/yr. Analysis is underway to identify the lowest-cost delivery and storage options for those four scenarios. Additional proposed work focuses on developing regional fidelity and understanding potential opportunities for a transition from today's hydrogen market to one with H2@Scale.
Tightly coupled nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (N-R HESs) are designed to both generate dispatchable electricity and produce at least one industrial product from nuclear and renewable energy sources. This presentation summarizes findings from NREL's technoeonomic assessment of several N-R HES configurations. It summarizes key conclusions and communicates the next steps in NREL's work on these technologies.
This presentation speaks about the state of the U.S. energy sector and how nuclear and renewable energy fit in. It covers the challenges and opportunities for both nuclear and renewable energy, discusses how hybrid energy systems might come together to address those challenges, and explore non-traditional uses for nuclear energy.