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Rutqvist, Jonny

Publications and source records attributed to Rutqvist, Jonny.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Insights from a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of a layered high-temperature thermal energy storage reservoir

Coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) modeling is applied to investigate the performance of a seasonal high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage operation based on data and conditions from current site investigations at the Geostorage Forsthaus pilot project in Bern (Switzerland). The model includes subhorizontal sand lenses of various lengths and dips that are embedded in a low permeability clay matrix. Thermal energy storage is simulated by seasonal injection and withdrawal of hot (up to 90 °C) water from a main well, with reservoir pressure regulated by two auxiliary wells at a distance of about 70 m from the main well. The results show how targeted injection into deeper permeable storage formations, along with active deep well pressure control, can effectively minimize geomechanical impact and the potential risk of damaging subsurface storage and sealing formations, or even surface facilities. With such pressure control, the subsurface mechanical responses are dominated by thermal strain and stress, which can be monitored with subsurface fiber optics. The study demonstrates how coupled THM modeling can be applied for the design of a safe and efficient thermal energy storage operation, and how subsurface fiber optic monitoring can be applied for performance confirmation, allowing for more confident operational forecasting.

Rutqvist, Jonny↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling supercritical CO2 injection induced rupture of a minor fault embedded in a poroelastic layered reservoir-caprock system

CO2 injection for geologic carbon sequestration involves hydromechanical processes that lead to changes in fluid pressure and stresses that can activate existing faults. This paper presents a new method and workflow of modeling fault activation considering more complex three-dimensional geometry of natural faults using the TOUGH-FLAC multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator. In this method and workflow, FLAC3D mechanical interfaces and TOUGH3 finite volume elements are discretized using computer aided design and gridding software along with a tailored mesh translation routine. The method and workflow are demonstrated with a model of a curved minor fault embedded in a poro-elastic layered reservoir-caprock system. The model is used for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of fault responses to fault length, injection mass rate, injection schedule, well-fault distance, and well locations versus fault location. Four metrics (CO2 plume, shear state of fault, pressure and stress path at fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO2 migration, pressure change, and the reactivation of faults. The results reveal that CO2 can bypass around the tip of the minor impermeable fault, building up pressure and poro-elastic stress on both sides that tends to impede fault rupture. Our study shows the benefit of carefully designing the injection to achieve the targeted final storage volume, starting at a relatively low rate for considerable time, and then ramping up the injection rate to the full rate of injection. The initial low injection has two distinct benefits: (1) it allows for the formation of an extensive CO2 plume with a much higher mobility through a low viscosity that will result in a lower pressure for a given injection rate, and (2) it allows for gradual build-up of horizontal poro-elastic stress within the reservoir that will tend to impede activation of steeply dipping faults. The injection scenario starting at a low injection rate, denoted here as conservative injection, can significantly reduce the risk of fault activation as high fluid mobility and reservoir strengthening poro-elastic stress has been established long before reaching the peak injection rates. Moreover, simultaneous injection in two injection wells on both sides of fault can provide further reservoir strengthening through poro-elastic stress buildup acting on a fault under normal faulting stress regime. The findings presented in the paper can provide practical and effective guidance on long-term, safe, and reliable geological CO2 storage.

Cao, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task A Final Report

Task A, also known as HGFrac, examines the fracturing processes that may occur in the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone (COx) in the context of the high-level (HLW) and intermediate-level long-lived (ILW-LL) radioactive waste repository in France. Understanding these processes and improving numerical models to reproduce them will aid in the design, optimization, and safety of the repository. Heat and gas fracturing are studied in two independent subtasks following a stepwise approach: laboratory tests/benchmark exercises, in-situ experiment, and finally, an application case. The in-situ heater experiment aimed to thermally induce a hydraulic fracture; temperature and pore pressure were monitored to detect any evidence of fracturing. The in-situ gas injection experiment aimed to study the effect of the stress orientation and gas injection kinetics on the gas fracturing process. The occurrence of fracturing was monitored by gas pressure measured in the injection interval. In both experiments, the excavation-induced fracture network around the heater/injection boreholes played an important role in the reduction of the compressive stress state, leading to both a tensile and shear failure response of the COx. During the first two years of the project, the research teams working on each task developed and/or proposed numerical approaches for reproducing the occurrence of fracturing in the in-situ experiments. The failure criteria were defined by reproducing the measurements from laboratory extension tests for the heat fracturing subtask. In the gas fracturing subtask, their approaches were used for simulating several benchmark exercises, and an inter-comparison between models was carried out. In both tasks, the developed approaches were compared with a simplified approach considering poro-elasticity for the mechanical behaviour of the COx. Most of the developed approaches are based on a continuous medium that takes into account variations in hydraulic properties due to mechanical degradation, such as plastic deformation or damage. Other approaches implicitly modelled weak planes or embedded discontinuities to reproduce fracture propagation. The potential for fracture initiation was also studied through of a discrete approach. In the second half of the project, the research teams mainly focused on interpretative modelling of two in-situ experiments and a blind prediction exercise to test their respective approaches. The models developed by the research teams were also applied at the repository scale to evaluate fracture initiation in a case study under vi unfavourable conditions, particularly in terms of spacing between High-Level Waste cells. The results showed that the poro-elasticity approach could be an efficient tool for understanding the main processes occurring in the COx. One example is the explicit representation of the excavation-induced fracture network around the boreholes, which yielded acceptable results compared to the measurement data. However, advanced approaches were needed to evaluate the potential increase of the excavation-induced fracture network extend and better understand fracture initiation. The stress analyses carried out by the teams revealed that hydraulic boundary conditions had a strong impact on fracture initiation in the heater experiment. Furthermore, in most cases, the results required higher pore pressure increments to reach fracturing than those measured in the experiment. This implies that the measurements may have been biased by the packer’s capacity to fully isolate the piezometric chambers, leading to lower pressures. On the contrary, there was no agreement on the fracturing mode, as some reported either shear or tensile fracturing, while others reported a combination of the two modes. In the case of gas fracturing, the research teams were limited to the comparison of a single point, which complicated their task. Nonetheless, the numerical results were able to reproduce the measurements and capture processes such as longitudinal gas flow through the excavation-induced fracture network, as suggested by some evidence in the observation piezometric chambers. The numerical models also agreed with the measurements in the sense of higher probability of developing along the injection borehole than radially towards the sound rock. The approaches developed by the research teams showed that they are capable of analysing and reproducing fracture initiation in the COx. However, areas of future work should focus on the fracture propagation and fracture aperture, which were out of the scope of this task. To this end, additional data must be gathered for the parameter characterisation and validation of the numerical models. Nonetheless, various approaches showed promising results as they were able to reproduce fracture development under certain conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task C Final Report

The Full-scale Emplacement (FE) heater experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) was designed and conducted by Nagra to replicate an emplacement tunnel of Nagra’s reference repository design at 1:1 scale. Alongside testing the technical feasibility of constructing disposal tunnels, emplacing waste containers in the tunnels and then backfilling them, the main goals of the FE experiment are (1) to obtain a better understanding of the coupled effects of induced thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes that may occur and (2) to validate existing coupled THM models (Müller et al., 2017). A key aspect of ensuring safety for repositories located in low-permeability rock involves minimizing any damage to the rock itself, thereby preserving its integrity and promoting a stable environment Amongst a number of processes that could damage the rock is the increase in pore pressure due to thermal loading caused by heat emitted from the waste. To reduce the potential damage of the rock, it is important to analyse the evolution of heat over time due to the heat load of the containers and assess possible consequences by coupled THM models. The aim of Task C of DECOVALEX-2023 was to build 3D numerical models of the FE experiment, focussing in particular on the heating induced pore pressure change in the Opalinus Clay. Data from a large number of sensors were available from the FE experiment for model comparison. These sensors measured temperature and relative humidity in the bentonite around the heaters, and temperature, pressure and displacement/strain in the surrounding Opalinus clay. Data were available from the start of excavation (April 2012) up to August 2020 for most sensors (more than 5 years from the start of heating in December 2014). To fulfil the overall aim of the task, the work was broken down into a number of steps, starting with simpler models to build confidence in each team’s approach and then moving to more complex models that better represent the FE experiment. Step 0 consisted of 2D benchmark models, gradually increasing the number of processes that are represented from thermal (T) only models in Step 0a, to coupled thermal hydraulic (TH) models in Step 0b with a representation of changing porosity, to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models in Step 0c, where porosity changes are calculated by the mechanical model. A detailed specification of processes, parameters, initial and boundary conditions was provided for this step, with the ambition that all teams would work towards close agreement in their model results, thus building confidence in the model implementations. vi It was not straightforward to achieve agreement between the teams, so additional steps (Step 0b2, 0b3, 0c2, 0c3) were added along with derivation of some analytical solutions against which the models could be compared. The reasons for the differences between teams were investigated and found to be caused primarily by different conceptual model assumptions (including temperature dependence of the thermal expansion of water), different model formulations (including porosity evolution) and differences in modelled domain sizes, boundary conditions and grid discretisation. This demonstrates that comparisons between multiple modelling teams and/or comparison with analytical results and experimental data are highly beneficial in providing an indication of uncertainty in model predictions. At the conclusion of Step 0, almost all teams had achieved a close agreement in model results and those that had not achieved an agreement knew the reason for this. Step 1 moved from 2D models to 3D models of the FE experiment without adding technical features like shotcrete or EDZ, and only considering the heating phase. Initially the 3D model was tightly specified to continue to build confidence in the model implementations (Step 1a). The results of Step 1a were compared to the data from the FE-experiment without the teams seeing the data. The teams were then provided with a sub-set of the data from the FE-experiment and invited to consider how best to use the large dataset for model comparison (Step 1b). Teams were then asked to use the data provided to calibrate their models, only changing material property values rather than adding features or processes to their models (Step 1c). In Step 1, teams were asked to only model the heating phase of the experiment, so pressure in the Opalinus Clay was reported as change in pressure since the initial conditions were specified rather than modelled. The change from 2D to 3D models was accompanied by an increase in the dispersion of results between the teams. Some of this was resolved during the task, but some remained and is potentially due to model discretisation. Calibration of parameters was useful in improving the fit of the models to the data but the remaining differences indicated that the models were missing features or processes. In Step 2, the teams were asked to update their models with additional features and processes as well as calibrating parameters to try and improve the fit of the models to the data. Teams were encouraged to represent ventilation of the open FE tunnel prior to backfilling with heaters and bentonite and in Step 2, the absolute pressure in the Opalinus Clay was compared between the teams. Teams took different approaches, but there was consideration of adding shotcrete and an EDZ into the model, representing stress change during excavation and different approaches to modelling ventilation of the FE tunnel. Overall, the documented results showed a very good agreement for temperature. The results for porewater pressure evolution showed a significant improvement for most teams compared to Step 1c with a good agreement to the measurements for several teams whereas some teams overpredicted the pressure increase and others overpredicted the drainage effect especially for the sensors close to the heater. Step 3 was an opportunity for teams to use the models developed in Step 1 and Step 2 to make predictions about the temperature and pressure changes that will be expected at the FE experiment over the next few years in light of the planned changes in thermal output of the heaters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Splitting tensile strength of shale cores: intact versus fractured and sealed with ureolysis-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (UICP)

Ureolysis-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (UICP) is a biomineral solution where the urease enzyme converts urea and calcium into calcium carbonate. The resulting biomineral can bridge gaps in fractured shale, reduce undesired fluid flow, limit fracture propagation, better store carbon dioxide, and potentially enhance well efficiency. The mechanical properties of shale cores were investigated using a modified Brazilian indirect tensile strength test. An investigation of intact shale using Eagle Ford and Wolfcamp cores was conducted at varying temperatures. Results show no significant difference between shale types (average tensile strength = 6.19 MPa). Eagle Ford displayed higher strength at elevated temperature, but temperature did not influence Wolfcamp. Comparatively, cores with a single, lengthwise heterogeneous fracture were sealed with UICP and further tested for tensile strength. UICP was delivered via a flow-through method which injected 20–30 sequential patterns of ureolytic microorganisms and UICP-promoting fluids into the fracture until permeability reduced by three orders of magnitude or with an immersion method which placed cores treated with guar gum and UICP-promoting fluids into a batch reactor, demonstrating that guar gum is a suitable inclusion and may reduce the number of flow-through injections required. Tensile results for both delivery methods were variable (0.15–8 MPa), and in some cores the biomineralized fracture split apart, possibly due to insufficient sealing and/or heterogeneity in the composite UICP-shale cores. Notably in other cores the biomineralized fracture remained intact, demonstrating more cohesion than the surrounding shale, indicating that UICP may produce a strong seal for subsurface application.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field Evaluation of the Caney Shale as an Emerging Unconventional Play, Southern Oklahoma

The Mississippian-age Caney Shale is an emerging unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resource play in the southern Midcontinent and is prospective in the Anadarko, Ardmore, Marietta and western Arkoma basins. This play is enigmatic in that time equivalent Fayetteville Shale in the eastern Arkoma basin and Barnett Shale in the Ft. Worth Basin are major unconventional plays, whereas Caney Shale production is sparse and unpredictable (Cardott, 2017). In the Anadarko, Ardmore and Marietta basins, the Caney Shale is in the oil window, but its resource potential has not been adequately assessed. The Caney reservoir is about 60-300 m thick, is rich in total organic carbon, contains a large oil resource base, and has a strong natural gas drive; however, development has been hampered by high clay content and reactivity of the formation with water. The main objective of this initial four-year research project was to address these issues by establishing a Caney Shale Field Laboratory in the Ardmore Basin of southern Oklahoma to (a) conduct a comprehensive field characterization (b) perform field experiments, and (c) validate cost-effective technologies that will lead to a comprehensive and efficient development strategy plan for Caney Shale.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling injection-induced fault slip using long short-term memory networks

Stress changes due to changes in fluid pressure and temperature in a faulted formation may lead to the opening/shearing of the fault. This can be due to subsurface (geo)engineering activities such as fluid injections and geologic disposal of nuclear waste. Such activities are expected to rise in the future making it necessary to assess their short- and long-term safety. Here, a new machine learning (ML) approach to model pore pressure and fault displacements in response to high-pressure fluid injection cycles is developed. The focus is on fault behavior near the injection borehole. To capture the temporal dependencies in the data, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are utilized. To prevent error accumulation within the forecast window, four critical measures to train a robust LSTM model for predicting fault response are highlighted: (i) setting an appropriate value of LSTM lag, (ii) calibrating the LSTM cell dimension, (iii) learning rate reduction during weight optimization, and (iv) not adopting an independent injection cycle as a validation set. Several numerical experiments were conducted, which demonstrated that the ML model can capture peaks in pressure and associated fault displacement that accompany an increase in fluid injection. The model also captured the decay in pressure and displacement during the injection shut-in period. Further, the ability of an ML model to highlight key changes in fault hydromechanical activation processes was investigated, which shows that ML can be used to monitor risk of fault activation and leakage during high pressure fluid injections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) FY24 Update

This report summarizes fiscal year 2024 (FY24) activities centered around a series of field tests in bedded salt at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) funded by the Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology in the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) program of the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE). High-level Purpose of Experiments: The Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) field tests are revealing both brine occurrence (i.e., where, and how much) and brine migration (i.e., how easily it moves) in the excavation damaged zone (EDZ). This understanding is foundational to develop a safety case for a future heat-generating waste repository in salt, and to starting up a generic repository program in salt to buy down risk. BATS seeks to predict how much brine can flow into both ambient and heated excavations (e.g., boreholes or rooms) in salt. This work is educating and empowering new repository scientists on two fronts: “design and execution of field tests” and “prediction and modeling of coupled processes.” DOE-NE capabilities in salt have grown and been tested through international modeling and benchmarking exercises (e.g., DECOVALEX, RANGERS, KOMPASS, and MEASURES; see Mills et al., 2024). The hands-on expertise we are building is a necessary step towards large-scale disposal demonstrations and eventual implementation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories based on three design factors - Decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer and double-layer concept

This study investigates the enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories (DGRs) based on three design factors: decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer, and double-layer concept using coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical simulations. Decay heat optimization is achieved by iteratively emplacing spent nuclear fuels having the maximum and minimum decay heat in a canister. Disposal areas can be reduced by 20 % to 40 % compared to the current reference disposal system in Korea (KRS+) in accordance with the combinations of the three design factors, alleviating challenges in site selection for the DGR. This study additionally identifies an optimal layer spacing of 500 m for the double-layer concept in the viewpoint of the buffer temperature, where thermal interaction between the upper and lower layers nearly disappears. However, determining the ultimate disposal and layer spacing requires engineering judgement, considering not only the thermal performance of the DGR but also various factors such as cost and difficulties of the construction and rock mass stability. DGRs designed with an increased thermal limit of the buffer poses a greater probability of rock mass failure around disposal tunnels and deposition holes due to elevated thermal stresses. Densely arranged heat sources for the DGRs with enhanced disposal efficiency lead to larger temperature increase even at the far-field scale, raising a possibility of thermally driven fracture shear activation with associated hydraulic, mechanical, and seismic changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting fluid-injection induced seismicity to choose the best injection strategy for safety and efficiency

Induced seismicity poses a challenge to the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Improving monitoring and forecasting techniques is essential to mitigate induced seismicity and thereby fostering a positive perception of EGS projects among local authorities and population. Induced seismicity is the result of complex and coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical mechanisms. Injection flux and pressure are crucial controlling parameters for both hydraulic stimulation and circulation protocols. We develop a methodology combining a hydro-mechanical model with a seismicity rate model to estimate the magnitude and frequency of mainshocks and aftershocks induced by fluid injection. We apply the methodology to the case of the Basel EGS (2006, Switzerland) to compare the effects of progressive, cyclic and constant injections on the mechanical response of discrete faults. Results from the coupled hydro-mechanical models show that the pore pressure diffusion and consequent enhancement of fault permeability are limited to the vicinity of the injection well during cyclic injection. Additionally, constant injection induces seismicity from the start of the injection but enhances the permeability of most of the faults within a shorter duration, inducing less post-injection seismicity. The methodology can be adapted to any numerical model and allows new projects to be developed by anticipating the safest injection protocol. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems’.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of results for Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) DECOVALEX-2023 Task E

In the 2023 phase of the international collaborative DECOVALEX modeling project, Task E focused on understanding thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (THM) processes related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and non-porous in the far field. Investigation of the short-term, near-field behavior is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of inflowing brine. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment.The Task was divided into steps. Step 0 included matching unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and matching temperature observations during a Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution, and two-phase flow around an excavation. Finally, Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the same BATS heater test.There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. Task E was a learning experience for the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in follow-on BATS experiments at WIPP. The primary Task E lessons learned were the impact of hydrologic initialization methods (wetting up vs. drying down), the difference between confined and unconfined thermal expansion, and the large changes in permeability associated with heating and cooling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond the Surface: Non-Invasive Low-Field NMR Analysis of Microbially-Induced Calcium Carbonate Precipitation in Shale Fractures

Microbially-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) is a biological process in which microbially-produced urease enzymes convert urea and calcium into solid calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) deposits. MICP has been demonstrated to reduce permeability in shale fractures under elevated pressures, raising the possibility of applying this technology to enhance shale reservoir storage safety. For this and other applications to become a reality, non-invasive tools are needed to determine how effectively MICP seals shale fractures at subsurface temperatures. In this study, two different MICP strategies were tested on 2.54 cm diameter and 5.08 cm long shale cores with a single fracture at 60 °C. Flow-through, pulsed-flow MICP-treatment was repeatedly applied to Marcellus shale fractures with and without sand (“proppant”) until reaching approximately four orders of magnitude reduction in apparent permeability, while a single application of polymer-based “immersion” MICP-treatment was applied to an Eagle Ford shale fracture with proppant. Low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (LF-NMR) and X-Ray computed microtomography (micro-CT) techniques were used to assess the degree of biomineralization. With the flow-through approach, these tools revealed that while CaCO 3 precipitation occurred throughout the fracture, there was preferential precipitation around proppant. Without proppant, the same approach led to premature sealing at the inlet side of the core. In contrast, immersion MICP-treatment sealed off the fracture edges and showed less mineral precipitation overall. This study highlights the use of LF-NMR relaxometry in characterizing fracture sealing and can help guide NMR logging tools in subsurface remediation efforts.

MICP↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task G, SAFENET Final Report

DECOVALEX Task G deals with fracture mechanics at several scales using a combined approach of experimental work, related model development, benchmarking and experimental analysis. Fig. 0.1 provides a graphical abstract for Task G. The experimental basis for the related mechanical (M), hydro-mechanical (HM), and thermo-mechanical (TM) processes comes from the rock mechanics laboratories of Universities of Freiberg (TUBAF) and Edinburgh, as well as the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT). The experimental work in the rock laboratories is closely linked to the underground research laboratories (URLs) Reiche Zeche (Germany), KURT (Korea), and Mont Terri (Switzerland). The scientific key questions are related to fracture permeability evolution under THM conditions, anisotropy effects on fracturing processes, and thermal fracture slip, which are being addressed in specific steps of the task. A large variety of numerical methods have been developed and applied for experimental analysis, ranging from continuum to discontinuum approaches. A detailed comparison of mechanical and hydro-mechanical processes is given in the section 3 via the benchmarking exercises. As a result of DECOVALEX-2023 Task G we further improved our understanding and predictability of fracturing processes under THM conditions. This was based on robust numerical simulation methods and in-depth experimental analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

A New Simplified Discrete Fracture Model for Shearing of Intersecting Fractures and Faults

Abstract Shearing of fractures and faults is important because it can result in permeability change or even induce seismicity—both are keys for efficient and safe energy recovery and storage in Earth systems. Quantitative analysis of shearing of intersecting fractures and faults is challenging because it can involve dynamic frictional contacts that are complicated by deformation of the rock matrix. To predict the shearing of intersecting fractures/faults, we attempt to answer the question of how intersections impact the shearing of a fracture network and whether we can simplify the description as compared to classical discrete fracture network (DFN) models. To answer these questions, we conducted a series of numerical simulations on scenarios for variable numbers of intersecting fractures. All these examples yield consistent results: the results of using DFNs are consistent with those of using hypothetical major paths. This leads to a new model, which we name simplified discrete fracture network model , to analyze shearing of intersecting fractures/faults using major path(s). We found that the intersections of fractures do not fundamentally change the shearing of two intersecting fractures if the intersecting angles are small. Furthermore, increasing the number of fractures/faults may relax the stress as more fractures/faults become available for shearing and distributing the stress. The simplified DFN model, which can capture efficiently the shearing behavior of each major paths from a large number of intersecting fractures/faults, will be a promising conceptual model that is complementary to existing equivalent continuum and discrete fracture models to analyze shearing of intersecting fractures/faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task E Final Report

This is the Task E final report for DECOVALEX-2023. Task E is focused on understanding thermal, two-phase hydrological, and mechanical (TH2M) processes, especially related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and essentially non-porous in the far field (away from excavations). Investigation of the short-term (days to years) near-field (centimeters to tens of meters) behavior of salt is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of brine in a salt repository. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment. The main test case used in Task E is the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test located underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA. The Task was divided into a series of Steps. Step 0 was an introduction to processes in salt, that included matching historical unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at WIPP and matching temperature observations during BATS heater test 1a. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution relevant to heated boreholes in salt, and two-phase flow around an excavation in salt. Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the BATS 1a heater test. There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. The key learning points from Task E have been: • Heat conduction through salt typically requires non-linear thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature), but most models do a good job matching observations, given appropriate adjustments to the applied power and some thermocouple locations. • Thermal pressurization requires coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) responses that consider the thermal expansion of the fluid and solid phases. • Initialization of two-phase flow models around a borehole or excavation in salt are more realistically represented as “wetting up”, rather than “drying down” (i.e., the initial state after excavation is mostly dry, rather than mostly wet). • The BATS 1a heater test includes a significant release of brine after the end of heating, which requires a large increase in permeability to recreate. Task E has been a great learning experience for all the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in the design of follow-on BATS experiments, which are now ongoing underground at WIPP. There was a balance throughout the task between freedom to model phenomena how each team saw fit, and prescriptiveness in problem design to bring the modeling teams closer together to allow attribution of smaller differences between models to different modeling choices. The modeling approaches seem to go through two phases: an early phase of discovery or testing, and a later phase of refinement and improvement. In future modeling efforts, different field data could be used (e.g., BATS 2) and more time should be included in the processes for teams to make multiple model refinement or even significant changes to their conceptual model or setup, based on lessons learned from the modeling exercise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can Glacial Sea‐Level Drop‐Induced Gas Hydrate Dissociation Cause Submarine Landslides?

Abstract We conducted two‐dimensional numerical simulations to investigate the mechanisms underlying the strong spatiotemporal correlation observed between submarine landslides and gas hydrate dissociation due to glacial sea‐level drops. Our results suggest that potential plastic deformation or slip could occur at localized and small scales in the shallow‐water portion of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ). This shallow‐water portion of the GHSZ typically lies within the area enclosed by three points: the BGHSZ–seafloor intersection, the seafloor at ∼600 m below sea level (mbsl), and the base of the GHSZ (BGHSZ) at ∼1,050 mbsl in low‐latitude regions. The deep BGHSZ (>1,050 mbsl) could not slip; therefore, the entire BGHSZ was not a complete slip surface. Glacial hydrate dissociation alone is unlikely to cause large‐scale submarine landslides. Observed deep‐water (much greater than 600 mbsl) turbidites containing geochemical evidence of glacial hydrate dissociation potentially formed from erosion or detachment in the GHSZ pinch‐out zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of anisotropic shale creep on the stress and permeability evolution of a geological nuclear waste repository

To ensure long-term safety and performance, geological nuclear waste repositories require low-permeability barriers such as bentonite buffers and/or shale host rock. Shale is not only known for its low permeability but also for its trend to undergo time-dependent deformation (i.e., creep), which could heal damage, but the effects of shale creep on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories have not been clearly understood. In particular, the anisotropic nature of shale (i.e., bedding) could have a significant effect on its creep behavior, and consequently, on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories. In this research, numerical simulations were carried out with the objective of showing the effects of anisotropic shale creep on the stress and permeability evolution of a generic geological nuclear waste repository in shale. The TOUGH-FLAC simulator, a thermo-hydromechanically (THM) coupled numerical code, was used for the simulations. To achieve the objective, comparisons were performed between the results of anisotropic shale creep simulations and those of different simulation cases, namely, no creep (i.e., elastic), isotropic creep, and long-term creep shale cases. Results of the comparisons show that the elastic and isotropic creep shale cases respectively led to the overestimation and underestimation of stress and permeability in the repository, whereas the long-term creep shale case, which accumulated greater creep in later periods than in earlier periods, helped to keep large shear and tensile stresses from developing while maintaining compressive spherical stress, resulting in consistently low permeability levels. These results indicate that performance assessments with elastic and isotropic creep formation models will provide the upper and lower bound estimates of stress and permeability, while more reasonable estimates will be given by an anisotropic creep formation model, and that shale with long-term creep characteristics will be beneficial in many aspects of the safety and performance of nuclear waste repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗