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Ryan J. Kramer

Publications and source records attributed to Ryan J. Kramer.

7 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

ENSO Disrupts Boreal Winter CRE Feedback

Twenty years of satellite-based cloud and radiation observations allow us to examine the observed cloud radiative effect (CRE) feedback (i.e., CRE change per unit change in global mean surface temperature). By employing a decomposition method to separate the contribution of “internal changes” and “relative-frequency-of-occurrence (RFO) changes” of distinct cloud regime (CR) groups, notable seasonal contrasts of CRE feedback characteristics emerge. Boreal winter CRE feedback is dominated by the positive shortwave CRE (SWCRE) feedback of oceanic low-thick clouds, due to their decreasing RFO as temperature rises. This signal is most likely due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. When ENSO signals are excluded, boreal winter CRE feedback becomes qualitatively similar to the boreal summer feedback, where several CR groups contribute to the total CRE feedback more evenly. Most CR groups’ CRE feedbacks largely come from changing RFO: e.g., the predominant transition from oceanic cumulus to broken clouds and more occurrences of higher convective clouds with warming temperature. At the same time, low-thick and broken clouds experience optical thinning and decreasing cloud fraction, and these features are more prominent in boreal summer than winter. Overall, the seasonally asymmetric patterns of CRE feedback, primarily due to ENSO, introduce complexity in assessments of CRE feedback.

ENSO↗
NASA NTRS2023

Surface Warming and Wetting Due to Methane’s Longwave Radiative Effects Muted By Shortwave Absorption

Although greenhouse gases absorb primarily long-wave radiation, they also absorb short-wave radiation. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of methane short-wave absorption, which enhances its stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing by up to ~ 15%. The corresponding climate impacts, however, have been only indirectly evaluated and thus remain largely unquantified. Here we present a systematic, unambiguous analysis using one model and separate simulations with and without methane short-wave absorption. We find that methane short-wave absorption counteracts ~30% of the surface warming associated with its long-wave radiative effects. An even larger impact occurs for precipitation as methane short-wave absorption offsets ~60% of the precipitation increase relative to its long-wave radiative effects. The methane short-wave-induced cooling is due largely to cloud rapid adjustments, including increased low-level clouds, which enhance the reflection of incoming short-wave radiation, and decreased high-level clouds, which enhance outgoing long-wave radiation. The cloud responses, in turn, are related to the profile of atmospheric solar heating and corresponding changes in temperature and relative humidity. Despite our findings, methane remains a potent contributor to global warming, and efforts to reduce methane emissions are vital for keeping global warming well below 2 °C above preindustrial values.

radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols - a multi-model comparison

This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are −1.03 ± 0.37 W/sq.m for SO2 emissions, −0.25 ± 0.09 W/sq.m for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for black carbon (BC) and −0.07 ± 0.01 W/sq.m for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is −1.01 ± 0.25 W/sq.m. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W/sq.m for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W/sq.m for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W/sq.m respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.

radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2020

The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernel: the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere

We present top-of-atmosphere and surface radiative kernels based on the atmospheric component (GA7.1) of the HadGEM3 general circulation model developed by the UK Met Office. We show that the utility of radiative kernels for forcing adjustments in idealised CO2 perturbation experiments is greatest where there is sufficiently high resolution in the stratosphere in both the target climate model and the radiative kernel. This is because stratospheric cooling to a CO2 perturbation continues to increase with height, and low-resolution or low-top kernels or climate model output are unable to fully resolve the full stratospheric temperature adjustment. In the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), standard atmospheric model data are available up to 1 hPa on 19 pressure levels, which is a substantial advantage compared to CMIP5. We show in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model where a full set of climate diagnostics are available that the HadGEM3-GA7.1 kernel exhibits linear behaviour and the residual error term is small, as well as from a survey of kernels available in the literature that in general low-top radiative kernels underestimate the stratospheric temperature response. The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernels are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3594673 (Smith, 2019).

radiative kernels↗
NASA NTRS2020

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W/sq. m, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W/sq. m from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W/sq. m from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W/sq. m from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W/sq. m from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W/sq. m. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W/sq. m is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W/sq. m, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

effective radiative forcing↗