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NASA NTRS2022

The Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST)

Understanding the emergence of magnetic flux from the solar interior through the photosphere and its global impact on the inner heliosphere is a key scientific goal of the heliophysics community. This white paper outlines the concept of the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission, which will make measurements of solar variability from the solar interior, atmosphere, and the interplanetary (IP) medium. MOST will be a 4- spacecraft mission with one each at L4 (MOST1) and L5 (MOST2) and the other two (MOST3 and MOST4) at variable locations along Earth orbit. MOST1 and MOST2 will each carry seven remote-sensing and 3 in-situ instruments. All four spacecraft will carry a novel radio package known as the Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH) that will systematically probe the magnetic content of transient IP structures including coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and stream interaction regions (SIRs). The Faraday rotation measurements will provide magnetic content of these structures at various heliocentric distances from the outer corona to Earth’s vicinity. Photospheric and/or chromospheric magnetograms will cover >70% of the solar surface providing synchronic maps needed for accurately modeling the corona and solar wind. EUV, coronagraph, radio spectrograph, and heliospheric imager (HI) observations from multiple viewpoints provide 3-d information on CMEs/CME-driven shocks, SIRs, and other solar wind structures. Hard X-ray imagers will provide the flare aspects of solar eruptions to complement the CME aspects. MOST, a 10-year mission, is well aligned with NASA’s Heliophysics objectives and will provide an unprecedented opportunity to achieve these objectives with broad participation from the heliophysics community.

N. Gopalswamy↗

NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗