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Safie, Fayssal M.

Publications and source records attributed to Safie, Fayssal M..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

The Role of Probabilistic Design Analysis Methods in Safety and Affordability

For the last several years, NASA and its contractors have been working together to build space launch systems to commercialize space. Developing commercial affordable and safe launch systems becomes very important and requires a paradigm shift. This paradigm shift enforces the need for an integrated systems engineering environment where cost, safety, reliability, and performance need to be considered to optimize the launch system design. In such an environment, rule based and deterministic engineering design practices alone may not be sufficient to optimize margins and fault tolerance to reduce cost. As a result, introduction of Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) methods to support the current deterministic engineering design practices becomes a necessity to reduce cost without compromising reliability and safety. This paper discusses the importance of PDA methods in NASA's new commercial environment, their applications, and the key role they can play in designing reliable, safe, and affordable launch systems. More specifically, this paper discusses: 1) The involvement of NASA in PDA 2) Why PDA is needed 3) A PDA model structure 4) A PDA example application 5) PDA link to safety and affordability.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Reliability and Maintainability Analysis of a High Air Pressure Compressor Facility

This paper discusses a Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) independent assessment conducted to support the refurbishment of the Compressor Station at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The paper discusses the methodologies used by the assessment team to derive the repair by replacement (RR) strategies to improve the reliability and availability of the Compressor Station (Ref.1). This includes a RAPTOR simulation model that was used to generate the statistical data analysis needed to derive a 15-year investment plan to support the refurbishment of the facility. To summarize, study results clearly indicate that the air compressors are well past their design life. The major failures of Compressors indicate that significant latent failure causes are present. Given the occurrence of these high-cost failures following compressor overhauls, future major failures should be anticipated if compressors are not replaced. Given the results from the RR analysis, the study team recommended a compressor replacement strategy. Based on the data analysis, the RR strategy will lead to sustainable operations through significant improvements in reliability, availability, and the probability of meeting the air demand with acceptable investment cost that should translate, in the long run, into major cost savings. For example, the probability of meeting air demand improved from 79.7 percent for the Base Case to 97.3 percent. Expressed in terms of a reduction in the probability of failing to meet demand (1 in 5 days to 1 in 37 days), the improvement is about 700 percent. Similarly, compressor replacement improved the operational availability of the facility from 97.5 percent to 99.8 percent. Expressed in terms of a reduction in system unavailability (1 in 40 to 1 in 500), the improvement is better than 1000 percent (an order of magnitude improvement). It is worthy to note that the methodologies, tools, and techniques used in the LaRC study can be used to evaluate similar high value equipment components and facilities. Also, lessons learned in data collection and maintenance practices derived from the observations, findings, and recommendations of the study are extremely important in the evaluation and sustainment of new compressor facilities.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reliability and Maintainability Engineering - A Major Driver for Safety and Affordability

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of an effort to design and build a safe and affordable heavy lift vehicle to go to the moon and beyond. To achieve that, NASA is seeking more innovative and efficient approaches to reduce cost while maintaining an acceptable level of safety and mission success. One area that has the potential to contribute significantly to achieving NASA safety and affordability goals is Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) engineering. Inadequate reliability or failure of critical safety items may directly jeopardize the safety of the user(s) and result in a loss of life. Inadequate reliability of equipment may directly jeopardize mission success. Systems designed to be more reliable (fewer failures) and maintainable (fewer resources needed) can lower the total life cycle cost. The Department of Defense (DOD) and industry experience has shown that optimized and adequate levels of R&M are critical for achieving a high level of safety and mission success, and low sustainment cost. Also, lessons learned from the Space Shuttle program clearly demonstrated the importance of R&M engineering in designing and operating safe and affordable launch systems. The Challenger and Columbia accidents are examples of the severe impact of design unreliability and process induced failures on system safety and mission success. These accidents demonstrated the criticality of reliability engineering in understanding component failure mechanisms and integrated system failures across the system elements interfaces. Experience from the shuttle program also shows that insufficient Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability (RMS) engineering analyses upfront in the design phase can significantly increase the sustainment cost and, thereby, the total life cycle cost. Emphasis on RMS during the design phase is critical for identifying the design features and characteristics needed for time efficient processing, improved operational availability, and optimized maintenance and logistic support infrastructure. This paper discusses the role of R&M in a program acquisition phase and the potential impact of R&M on safety, mission success, operational availability, and affordability. This includes discussion of the R&M elements that need to be addressed and the R&M analyses that need to be performed in order to support a safe and affordable system design. The paper also provides some lessons learned from the Space Shuttle program on the impact of R&M on safety and affordability.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Applications and Lessons Learned in Reliability Engineering

Since the Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, communities across NASA have been developing and extensively using quantitative reliability and risk assessment methods in their decision making process. This paper discusses several reliability engineering applications that NASA has used over the year to support the design, development, and operation of critical space flight hardware. Specifically, the paper discusses several reliability engineering applications used by NASA in areas such as risk management, inspection policies, components upgrades, reliability growth, integrated failure analysis, and physics based probabilistic engineering analysis. In each of these areas, the paper provides a brief discussion of a case study to demonstrate the value added and the criticality of reliability engineering in supporting NASA project and program decisions to fly safely. Examples of these case studies discussed are reliability based life limit extension of Shuttle Space Main Engine (SSME) hardware, Reliability based inspection policies for Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) turbine disc, probabilistic structural engineering analysis for reliability prediction of the SSME alternate turbo-pump development, impact of ET foam reliability on the Space Shuttle System risk, and reliability based Space Shuttle upgrade for safety. Special attention is given in this paper to the physics based probabilistic engineering analysis applications and their critical role in evaluating the reliability of NASA development hardware including their potential use in a research and technology development environment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Design for Safety - The Ares Launch Vehicles Paradigm Change

The lessons learned from the S&MA early involvement in the Ares I launch vehicle design phases proved that performing an in-line function jointly with engineering is critical for S&MA to have an effective role in supporting the system, element, and component design. These lessons learned were used to effectively support the Ares V conceptual design phase and planning for post conceptual design phases. The Top level Conceptual LOM assessment for Ares V performed by the S&MA community jointly with the engineering Advanced Concept Office (ACO) was influential in the final selection of the Ares V system configuration. Post conceptual phase, extensive reliability effort should be planned to support future Heavy Lift Launch Vehicles (HLLV) design. In-depth reliability analysis involving the design, manufacturing, and system engineering communities is critical to understand design and process uncertainties and system integrated failures.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Changing the Safety and Mission Assurance (S and MA) Paradigm

This slide presentation reviews the change in the work and impact of the Safety and Mission Assurance directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center. It reviews the background and the reasons given for a strong Safety & Mission Assurance presence in all planning for space flight. This was pointed out by the Rogers Commission Report after the Space Challenger accident, by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) and by a 2006 NASA Exploration Safety Study (NESS) Team. The overall objective of the work in this area was to improve and maintain S&MA expertise and skills. Training for this work was improved and the S&MA organization was reorganized. This has resulted in a paradigm shift for NASA's safety efforts, which is described. The presentation then reviews the impact of the new S&MA work in the Ares I design and development.

Malone, Roy W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Design for Reliability and Safety Approach for the New NASA Launch Vehicle

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program intended for sending crew and cargo to the international Space Station (ISS), to the moon, and beyond. This program is called Constellation. As part of the Constellation program, NASA is developing new launch vehicles aimed at significantly increase safety and reliability, reduce the cost of accessing space, and provide a growth path for manned space exploration. Achieving these goals requires a rigorous process that addresses reliability, safety, and cost upfront and throughout all the phases of the life cycle of the program. This paper discusses the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the NASA new launch vehicles, the ARES I and ARES V. Specifically, the paper addresses the use of an integrated probabilistic functional analysis to support the design analysis cycle and a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to support the preliminary design and beyond.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Role of Process Control in Improving Space Vehicle Safety A Space Shuttle External Tank Example

Developing a safe and reliable space vehicle requires good design and good manufacturing, or in other words "design it right and build it right". A great design can be hard to build or manufacture mainly due to difficulties related to quality. Specifically, process control can be a challenge. As a result, the system suffers from low quality which leads to low reliability and high system risk. The Space Shuttle has experienced some of those cases, but has overcome these difficulties through extensive redesign efforts and process enhancements. One example is the design of the hot gas temperature sensor on the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), which resulted in failure of the sensor in flight and led to a redesign of the sensor. The most recent example is the Space Shuttle External Tank (ET) Thermal Protection System (TPS) reliability issues that contributed to the Columbia accident. As a result, extensive redesign and process enhancement activities have been performed over the last two years to minimize the sensitivities and difficulties of the manual TPS application process.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Importance Of Quality Control in Reducing System Risk, a Lesson Learned From The Shuttle and a Recommendation for Future Launch Vehicles

This paper presents lessons learned from the Space Shuttle return to flight experience and the importance of these lessons learned in the development of new the NASA Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Specifically, the paper discusses the relationship between process control and system risk, and the importance of process control in improving space vehicle flight safety. It uses the External Tank (ET) Thermal Protection System (TPS) experience and lessons learned from the redesign and process enhancement activities performed in preparation for Return to Flight after the Columbia accident. The paper also, discusses in some details, the Probabilistic engineering physics based risk assessment performed by the Shuttle program to evaluate the impact of TPS failure on system risk and the application of the methodology to the CLV.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) During Conceptual Design for the NASA Orbital Space Plane (OSP)

In order to meet the space transportation needs for a new century, America's National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has implemented an Integrated Space Transportation Plan to produce safe, economical, and reliable access to space. One near term objective of this initiative is the design and development of a next-generation vehicle and launch system that will transport crew and cargo to and from the International Space Station (ISS), the Orbital Space Plane (OSP). The OSP system is composed of a manned launch vehicle by an existing Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV). The OSP will provide emergency crew rescue from the ISS by 2008, and provide crew and limited cargo transfer to and from the ISS by 2012. A key requirement is for the OSP to be safer and more reliable than the Soyuz and Space Shuttle, which currently provide these capabilities.

Rogers, James H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Engineering Management Capstone Project EM 697: Compare and Contrast Risk Management Implementation at NASA and the US Army

NASA at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the U.S. Army at Redstone Arsenal were analyzed to determine whether they were successful in implementing their risk management program. Risk management implementation surveys were distributed to aid in this analysis. The scope is limited to NASA S&MA (Safety and Mission Assurance) at MSFC, including applicable support contractors, and the US Army Engineering Directorate, including applicable contractors, located at Redstone Arsenal. NASA has moderately higher risk management implementation survey scores than the Army. Accordingly, the implementation of the risk management program at NASA is considered good while only two of five of the survey categories indicated that the risk management implementation is good at the Army.

Brothers, Mary Ann↗
NASA NTRS2000

NASA's New Approach for Evaluating Risk Reduction Due to Space Shuttle Upgrades

As part of NASA's intensive effort to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tools in the Agency's decision-making process concerning Space Shuttle risk, NASA has developed a powerful risk assessment tool called the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS). The QRAS is a tool designed to estimate Space Shuttle risk and evaluate Space Shuttle upgrades. This paper presents an overview of the QRAS with focus on its application for evaluating the risk reduction due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. The application includes a case study from the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME). The QRAS overview section of the paper includes the QRAS development process, the technical approach to model development, the QRA quantification methods and techniques, and observations concerning the complex modeling involved in QRAS. The application section of the paper describes a practical case study using QRAS models for evaluating critical Space Shuttle Program upgrades, specifically a proposed SSME nozzle upgrade. This paper presents the method for evaluating the proposed upgrade by comparing the current nozzle (old design with well-established probabilistic models) to the channel wall nozzle (new design at the preliminary design level).

Safie, Fayssal M.↗