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Sathaye, Jayant

Publications and source records attributed to Sathaye, Jayant.

At least 19 records

Efficiency improvement and CO 2 emission reduction potentials in the United States petroleum refining industry

The U.S. EPA is in the final stages of promulgating regulations to reduce CO 2 emissions from the electricity generating industry. A major component of EPA's regulatory strategy targets improvements to power plant operating efficiencies. As the EPA expands regulatory requirements to other industries, including petroleum refining, it is likely that plant efficiency improvements will be critical to achieving CO 2 emission reductions. This paper identifies efficiency improvement measures applicable to refining, and quantifies potential cost of conserved energy for these measures. Analysis is at the U.S. petroleum refining sector national-level employing an aggregated notional refinery model (NRM), with the aim of estimating the efficacy of efficiency improvements for reducing emissions. Using this method, roughly 1500 petajoules per year (PJ/yr) of plant fuel savings and 650 gigawatt-hour per year (GWh/yr) of electricity savings (representing 54% and 2% of U.S. refining industry consumption, respectively) are potentially cost-effective. This equates to a potential 85 Mt-CO 2 /yr reduction. An additional 458 PJ/yr fuel reduction and close to 2750 GWh/yr of electricity reduction (27 Mt-CO 2 /yr) are not cost-effective at prevailing natural gas market prices. Furthermore, results are presented as a supply-curve ordering measures from low to high cost of fuel savings versus cumulative energy reduction.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are represented, in addition to the extensive data compiled from recent studies on bottom-up representation of efficiency measures for the sector. We also defined various mitigation scenarios including long-term production trends to project country-specific production, energy use, trading, carbon emissions, and costs of mitigation. Such analyses can provide useful information to assist policy-makers when considering and shaping future emissions mitigation strategies and policies. The technical objective is to analyze the costs of production and CO 2 emission reduction in the U.S, China, and India’s iron and steel sectors under different emission reduction scenarios, using the ISEEM-IS as a cost optimization model. The scenarios included in this project correspond to various CO 2 emission reduction targets for the iron and steel sector under different strategies such as simple CO 2 emission caps (e.g., specific reduction goals), emission reduction via commodity trading, and emission reduction via carbon trading.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling Clean and Secure Energy Scenarios for the Indian Power Sector in 2030

Recent developments in renewable energy (RE) related to upward revisions to potential estimates, declining costs, and improved performance have created new opportunities for using RE to cost-effectively meet energy security challenges in India. Under the “Modestly Secure and Clean” scenario, 40% of energy needs in 2030 are met by wind (15%), solar (10%), other RE (5%), and energy efficiency (10%) at a cost comparable to the “Baseline” scenario where only 10% of the electricity demand is provided by these resources and will lead to elimination of coal imports. If the rapid drop of solar prices continues, an electricity mix where 60% of the demand is provided by these sources can be achieved at comparable costs. Given the seasonal and diurnal complementary nature of solar and wind resources in India, and high- level of correlation with the load shape, such a mix is both cost effective and technically feasible.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Assessment of Energy Efficiency Improvement in the United States Petroleum Refining Industry

Adoption of efficient process technologies is an important approach to reducing CO 2 emissions, in particular those associated with combustion. In many cases, implementing energy efficiency measures is among the most cost-effective approaches that any refiner can take, improving productivity while reducing emissions. Therefore, careful analysis of the options and costs associated with efficiency measures is required to establish sound carbon policies addressing global climate change, and is the primary focus of LBNL’s current petroleum refining sector analysis for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The analysis is aimed at identifying energy efficiency-related measures and developing energy abatement supply curves and CO 2 emissions reduction potential for the U.S. refining industry. A refinery model has been developed for this purpose that is a notional aggregation of the U.S. petroleum refining sector. It consists of twelve processing units and account s for the additional energy requirements from steam generation, hydrogen production and water utilities required by each of the twelve processing units. The model is carbon and energy balanced such that crud e oil inputs and major refinery sector outputs (fuels) are benchmarked to 2010 data. Estimates of the current penetration for the identified energy efficiency measures benchmark the energy requirements to those reported in U.S. DOE 2010 data. The remaining energy efficiency potential for each of the measures is estimated and compared to U.S. DOE fuel prices resulting in estimates of cost- effective energy efficiency opportunities for each of the twelve major processes. A combined cost of conserved energy supply curve is also presented along with the CO 2 emissions abatement opportunities that exist in the U.S. petroleum refinery sector. Roughly 1,200 PJ per year of primary fuels savings and close to 500 GWh per y ear of electricity savings are potentially cost-effective given U.S. DOE fuel price forecasts. This represents roughly 70 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emission reductions assuming 2010 emissions factor for grid electricity. Energy efficiency measures resulting in an additional 400 PJ per year of primary fuels savings and close to 1,700 GWh per year of electricity savings, and an associated 24 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emission reductions are not cost-effective given the same assumption with respect to fuel prices and electricity emissions factors. Compared to the modeled energy requirements for the U.S. petroleum refining sector, the cost effective potential represents a 40% reduction in fuel consumption and a 2% reduction in electricity consumption. The non-cost-effective potential represents an additional 13% reduction in fuel consumption and an additional 7% reduction in electricity consumption. The relative energy reduction potentials are mu ch higher for fuel consumption than electricity consumption largely in part because fuel is the primary energy consumption type in the refineries. Moreover, many cost effective fuel savings measures would increase electricity consumption. The model also has the potential to be used to examine the costs and benefits of the other CO 2 mitigation options, such as combined heat and power (CHP), carbon capture, and the potential introduction of biomass feedstocks. However, these options are not addressed in this report as this report is focused on developing the modeling methodology and assessing fuels savings measures. These opportunities to further reduce refinery sector CO 2 emissions and are recommended for further research and analysis.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM) Framework Documentation

The goal of this study is to develop a new bottom-up industry sector energy-modeling framework with an agenda of addressing least cost regional and global carbon reduction strategies, improving the capabilities and limitations of the existing models that allows trading across regions and countries as an alternative.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessment of Energy Efficiency Improvement and CO2 Emission Reduction Potentials in India's Iron and Steel Industry

India’s 2010 annual crude steel production was 68 Mt which accounted for nearly five percent of the world’s annual steel production in the same year. In 2007, roughly 1600 PJ were consumed by India’s iron and steel industry to produce 53 Mt of steel. We identified and analyzed 25 energy efficiency technologies and measures applicable to the processes in the Indian iron and steel industry. The Conservation Supply Curve (CSC) used in this study is an analytical tool that captures both the engineering and the economic perspectives of energy conservation. Using a bottom-up electricity CSC model and compared to an electricity price forecast the cumulative plant-level cost-effective electricity savings potential for the Indian iron and steel industry for 2010-2030 is estimated to be 66 TWh, and the cumulative plant-level technical electricity saving potential is only slightly greater than 66 TWh for the same period. The primary energy related CO2 emissions reduction associated with cost-effective electricity savings is 65 Mt CO2. Compared to a fuel price forecast, an estimated cumulative cost-effective fuel savings potential of 768 PJ with associated CO2 emission reduction of 67 Mt CO2 during 2010-2030 is possible. In addition, a sensitivity analysis with respect to the discount rate used is conducted to assess the effect of changes in this parameter on the results. The result of this study gives a comprehensive and easy to understand perspective to the Indian iron and steel industry and policy makers about the energy efficiency potential and its associated cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the U.S. Pulp and Paper Sector

Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. How to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions becomes extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models. In this report, we first conduct a brief review of different representations of end-use technologies (mitigation measures) in various energy-climate models, followed by the problem statement, and a description of the basic concepts of quantifying the cost of conserved energy including integrating no-regrets options.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Assessment of Energy Efficiency Improvement and CO 2 Emission Reduction Potentials in the Cement Industry in China

China’s annual cement production (i.e., 1,868 Mt) in 2010 accounted for nearly half of the world’s annual cement production in the same year. We identified and analyzed 23 energy efficiency technologies and measures applicable to the processes in the cement industry. The Conservation Supply Curve (CSC) used in this study is an analytical tool that captures both the engineering and the economic perspectives of energy conservation. Using a bottom-up electricity CSC model, the cumulative cost-effective electricity savings potential for the Chinese cement industry for 2010-2030 is estimated to be 251 TWh, and the total technical electricity saving potential is 279 TWh. The CO 2 emissions reduction associated with cost-effective electricity savings is 144 Mt CO 2 and the CO 2 emission reduction associated with technical electricity saving potential is 161 Mt CO 2 . The fuel CSC model for the cement industry suggests cumulative cost-effective fuel savings potential of 4,326 PJ which is equivalent to the total technical potential with associated CO 2 emission reductions of 406 Mt CO 2 . In addition, a sensitivity analysis with respect to the discount rate used is conducted to assess the effect of changes in this parameter on the results. We also developed a scenario in which instead of only implementing the international technologies in 2010-2030, we implement both international and Chinese domestic technologies during the analysis period and calculate the saving and cost of conserved energy accordingly. The result of this study gives a comprehensive and easy to understand perspective to the Chinese cement industry and policy makers about the energy efficiency potential and its associated cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessment of Energy Efficiency Improvement and CO 2 Emission Reduction Potentials in the Iron and Steel Industry in China

China’s annual crude steel production in 2010 was 638.7 Mt accounting for nearly half of the world’s annual crude steel production in the same year. Around 461 TWh of electricity and 14,872 PJ of fuel were consumed to produce this quantity of steel in 2010. We identified and analyzed 23 energy efficiency technologies and measures applicable to the processes in the iron and steel industry. The Conservation Supply Curve (CSC) used in this study is an analytical tool that captures both the engineering and the economic perspectives of energy conservation. Using a bottom-up electricity CSC model, the cumulative cost-effective electricity savings potential for the Chinese iron and steel industry for 2010-2030 is estimated to be 251 TWh, and the total technical electricity saving potential is 416 TWh. The CO 2 emissions reduction associated with cost-effective electricity savings is 139 Mt CO 2 and the CO 2 emission reduction associated with technical electricity saving potential is 237 Mt CO2. The FCSC model for the iron and steel industry shows cumulative cost-effective fuel savings potential of 11,999 PJ, and the total technical fuel saving potential is 12,139. The CO 2 emissions reduction associated with cost-effective and technical fuel savings is 1,191 Mt CO 2 and 1,205 Mt CO 2 , respectively. In addition, a sensitivity analysis with respect to the discount rate used is conducted to assess the effect of changes in this parameter on the results. The result of this study gives a comprehensive and easy to understand perspective to the Chinese iron and steel industry and policy makers about the energy efficiency potential and its associated cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of a Computer-based Benchmarking and Analytical Tool: Benchmarking and Energy & Water Savings Tool in Dairy Plants (BEST-Dairy) (Final Report)

The overall goal of the project is to develop a computer-based benchmarking and energy and water savings tool (BEST-Dairy) for use in the California dairy industry - including four dairy processes - cheese, fluid milk, butter, and milk powder. BEST-Dairy tool developed in this project provides three options for the user to benchmark each of the dairy product included in the tool, with each option differentiated based on specific detail level of process or plant, i.e., 1) plant level; 2) process-group level, and 3) process-step level. For each detail level, the tool accounts for differences in production and other variables affecting energy use in dairy processes. The dairy products include cheese, fluid milk, butter, milk powder, etc. The BEST-Dairy tool can be applied to a wide range of dairy facilities to provide energy and water savings estimates, which are based upon the comparisons with the best available reference cases that were established through reviewing information from international and national samples. We have performed and completed alpha- and beta-testing (field testing) of the BEST-Dairy tool, through which feedback from voluntary users in the U.S. dairy industry was gathered to validate and improve the tool's functionality. BEST-Dairy v1.2 was formally published in May 2011, and has been made available for free downloads from the internet (i.e., http://best-dairy.lbl.gov). A user's manual has been developed and published as the companion documentation for use with the BEST-Dairy tool. In addition, we also carried out technology transfer activities by engaging the dairy industry in the process of tool development and testing, including field testing, technical presentations, and technical assistance throughout the project. To date, users from more than ten countries in addition to those in the U.S. have downloaded the BEST-Dairy from the LBNL website. It is expected that the use of BEST-Dairy tool will advance understanding of energy and water usage in individual dairy plants, augment benchmarking activities in the market places, and facilitate implementation of efficiency measures and strategies to save energy and water usage in the dairy industry. Industrial adoption of this emerging tool and technology in the market is expected to benefit dairy plants, which are important customers of California utilities. Further demonstration of this benchmarking tool is recommended, for facilitating its commercialization and expansion in functions of the tool. Wider use of this BEST-Dairy tool and its continuous expansion (in functionality) will help to reduce the actual consumption of energy and water in the dairy industry sector. The outcomes comply very well with the goals set by the AB 1250 for PIER program.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Using Cool Roofs to Reduce Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Urban Heat-island Effects: Findings from an India Experiment

Cool roofs, cool pavements, and urban vegetation reduce energy use in buildings, lower local air pollutant concentrations, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions from urban areas. This report summarizes the results of a detailed monitoring project in India and related simulations of meteorology and air quality in three developing countries. The field results quantified direct energy savings from installation of cool roofs on individual commercial buildings. The measured annual energy savings potential from roof-whitening of previously black roofs ranged from 20-22 kWh/m2 of roof area, corresponding to an air-conditioning energy use reduction of 14-26% in commercial buildings. The study estimated that typical annual savings of 13-14 kWh/m2 of roof area could be achieved by applying white coating to uncoated concrete roofs on commercial buildings in the Metropolitan Hyderabad region, corresponding to cooling energy savings of 10-19%. With the assumption of an annual increase of 100,000 square meters of new roof construction for the next 10 years in the Metropolitan Hyderabad region, the annual cooling energy savings due to whitening concrete roof would be 13-14 GWh of electricity in year ten alone, with cumulative 10-year cooling energy savings of 73-79 GWh for the region. The estimated savings for the entire country would be at least 10 times the savings in Hyderabad, i.e., more than 730-790 GWh. We estimated that annual direct CO2 reduction associated with reduced energy use would be 11-12 kg CO2/m2 of flat concrete roof area whitened, and the cumulative 10-year CO2 reduction would be approximately 0.60-0.65 million tons in India. With the price of electricity estimated at seven Rupees per kWh, the annual electricity savings on air-conditioning would be approximately 93-101 Rupees per m2 of roof. This would translate into annual national savings of approximately one billion Rupees in year ten, and cumulative 10-year savings of over five billion Rupees for cooling energy in India. Meteorological simulations in this study indicated that a reduction of 2C in air temperature in the Hyderabad area would be likely if a combination of increased surface albedo and vegetative cover are used as urban heat-island control strategies. In addition, air-temperature reductions on the order of 2.5-3.5C could be achieved if moderate and aggressive heat-island mitigation measures are adopted, respectively. A large-scale deployment of mitigation measures can bring additional indirect benefit to the urban area. For example, cooling outside air can improve the efficiency of cooling systems, reduce smog and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and indirectly reduce pollution from power plants - all improving environmental health quality. This study has demonstrated the effectiveness of cool-roof technology as one of the urban heat-island control strategies for the Indian industrial and scientific communities and has provided an estimate of the national energy savings potential of cool roofs in India. These outcomes can be used for developing cool-roof building standards and related policies in India. Additional field studies, built upon the successes and lessons learned from this project, may be helpful to further confirm the scale of potential energy savings from the application of cooler roofs in various regions of India. In the future, a more rigorous meteorological simulation using urbanized (meso-urban) meteorological models should be conducted, which may produce a more accurate estimate of the air-temperature reductions for the entire urban area.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Summary for Policy Makers: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN)

The Working Group III Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of the literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of the contribution of six renewable energy (RE) sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is intended to provide policy relevant information to governments, intergovernmental processes and other interested parties. This Summary for Policymakers provides an overview of the SRREN, summarizing the essential findings. The SRREN consists of 11 chapters. Chapter 1 sets the context for RE and climate change; Chapters 2 through 7 provide information on six RE technologies, and Chapters 8 through 11 address integrative issues.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Strategies for Low Carbon Growth In India: Industry and Non Residential Sectors

This report analyzed the potential for increasing energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in the non-residential building and the industrial sectors in India. The first two sections describe the research and analysis supporting the establishment of baseline energy consumption using a bottom up approach for the non residential sector and for the industry sector respectively. The third section covers the explanation of a modeling framework where GHG emissions are projected according to a baseline scenario and alternative scenarios that account for the implementation of cleaner technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗