Engineering topics

Schatten, K.

Publications and source records attributed to Schatten, K..

5 records

NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Pesnell, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Richon, K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

What maintains the zonal circulation in planetary atmospheres?

The latest Voyager observations have shown large zonal velocities in Neptune's atmosphere, with some indication of alternating jets. Similar wind velocities have also been observed on Venus and are characteristic of planetary atmospheres in general, which is remarkable considering that the available solar or internal heating varies by more than a factor of 1000. A simplified model of the planetary circulation which provides some qualitative understanding is discussed. The basic assumption is that the source driving the circulation is also generating the dissipating eddies which are simulated by diffusion. Thus, the magnitude and structure of the zonal circulation are independent both of the source and the dissipation rate. The zonal velocities are related to the speed of sound and are of comparable magnitude in different atmospheres; although the available heating varies by a large factor, and the planetary parameters vary over a wide range. The alternating jets are described by a convective eigenmode which develops when energy transport out of the planetary interior is important, as is the case on Jupiter, Neptune, and Saturn.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Influence of solar sector boundaries on ionospheric variability

A search for solar sector boundary related perturbations upon the ionospheric F region has been conducted by using a 3-year data base of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations from low to auroral latitudes. It has been found that as the earth passes from one sector to another, the daytime TEC from middle to high latitudes (L = 3-5) generally undergoes a change from relatively enhanced to relatively depleted TEC values. The opposite trend occurs at low latitudes (L = 2). The TEC variations are small in comparison with the overall F region variability and appear to be associated with the increased geomagnetic activity levels that occur when the earth enters into a new sector.

Mendillo, M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Solar irradiance modulation by active regions during 1980

The solar irradiance modulation due to active regions during 1980 has been investigated in detail. Specifically, the uncertainties caused by ground-based data used as input in the modeling effort, and by currently incomplete knowledge of the proper parameters that describe the angular variation of sunspot and facular contrasts are estimated. It is concluded that the most significant uncertainties are due to errors in area measurements and, possibly, varying spot and facular brightness. A 'standard model' for later use is derived to a best-fit technique of the currently available ACRIM irradiance data and the predictions of models with appropriately varied parameters. Finally, the expected irradiance for the entire year of 1980 is computed.

Sofia, S.↗