The Role of Atmospheric Noise in Decadal SST Variability
Abstract A substantial role for atmospheric noise in simulations of decadal internal variability of SST is demonstrated by a comparison of a multicentury climate model control and a corresponding interactive ensemble (IE) simulation. The IE is designed to reduce atmospheric noise in the heat flux, wind stress, and freshwater flux at the air–sea interface. This comparison suggests that nearly all SST variability on decadal time scales is forced by internal atmospheric variability. The results are examined to determine the relative roles of atmospheric surface heat flux noise and ocean dynamics in the decadal volume-averaged heat budget of the upper ocean. The regional heat budgets in two regions, the South Pacific and the midlatitude North Atlantic, show the net atmospheric surface heat flux to be approximately in equilibrium with the ocean dynamics forcing. The IE and control results are used in the equilibrium heat budget approximation to infer the atmospheric heat flux response to SST, as well as the time series of the control atmospheric noise surface heat flux and ocean dynamics forcings for several regions. The South Pacific region SST is found to be primarily forced by the atmospheric noise surface heat flux and the North Atlantic region SST is forced by the ocean dynamics. Similar strengths for the atmospheric heat flux noise and ocean dynamics forcing, with an interdecadal atmospheric heat flux noise time scale and a centennial ocean dynamics time scale, are found for an Atlantic multidecadal variability region SST.