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Schulz, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Schulz, M..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Abstract An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present‐day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near‐surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m −2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2‐4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m −2 . There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m −2 decade −1 ) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Resolution Momentum Imaging—From Stern’s Molecular Beam Method to the COLTRIMS Reaction Microscope [Book Chapter]

Multi-particle momentum imaging experiments are now capable of providing detailed information on the properties and the dynamics of quantum systems in Atomic, Molecular and Photon (AMO) physics. Historically, Otto Stern can be considered the pioneer of high-resolution momentum measurements of particles moving in a vacuum and he was the first to obtain sub-atomic unit (a.u.) momentum resolution (Schmidt-Böcking et al. in The precision limits in a single-event quantum measurement of electron momentum and position, these proceedings). A major contribution to modern experimental atomic and molecular physics was his so-called molecular beam method, which Stern developed and employed in his experiments. With this method he discovered several fundamental properties of atoms, molecules and nuclei. As corresponding particle detection techniques were lacking during his time, he was only able to observe the averaged footprints of large particle ensembles. Today it is routinely possible to measure the momenta of single particles, because of the tremendous progress in single particle detection and data acquisition electronics. A “state-of-the-art” COLTRIMS reaction microscope can measure, for example, the momenta of several particles ejected in the same quantum process in coincidence with sub-a.u. momentum resolution. Such setups can be used to visualize the dynamics of quantum reactions and image the entangled motion of electrons inside atoms and molecules. This review will briefly summarize Stern’s work and then present in longer detail the historic steps of the development of the COLTRIMS reaction microscope. Furthermore, some benchmark results are shown which initially paved the way for a broad acceptance of the COLTRIMS approach. Finally, a small selection of milestone work is presented which has been performed during the last two decades.

Jahnke, T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Abstract Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol‐radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol‐driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed‐phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of ‐1.6 to ‐0.6 W m −2 , or ‐2.0 to ‐0.4 W m −2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial‐era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Outdoor measurements of a photovoltaic system using diffractive spectrum-splitting and concentration

In a single-bandgap absorber, photons having energy less than the bandgap are not absorbed, while those having energy larger than the bandgap lose the excess energy via thermalization. We present outdoor measurements of a photovoltaic system that overcomes these losses via spectrum splitting and concentration using a planar diffractive optic. The system was comprised of the diffractive optic coupled with GaInP and CIGS solar cells. The optic provides a geometric concentration of 3X for each solar cell. It is easily fabricated by single-step grayscale lithography and it is ultra-thin with a maximum thickness of only 2.5μm. Electrical measurements under direct sunlight demonstrated an increase of ~25% in total output power compared to the reference case without spectrum splitting and concentration. Since different bandgaps are in the same plane, the proposed photovoltaic system successfully circumvents the lattice-matching and current-matching issues in conventional tandem multi-junction solar cells. As a result, this system is also tolerant to solar spectrum variation and fill-factor degradation of constitutive solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 ( 137 Cs) and xenon-133 ( 133 Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. 137 Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137 Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133 Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137 Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133 Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137 Cs and 133 Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τ e , calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95 % confidence interval 13.1–15.7 days). The equivalent modelled τ e lifetimes have a large spread, varying between 4.8 and 26.7 days with a model median of 9.4 ± 2.3 days, indicating too fast a removal in most models. Because sufficient measurement data were only available from about 2 weeks after the release, the estimated lifetimes apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport, i.e. not for freshly emitted aerosol. However, modelled instantaneous lifetimes show that the initial removal in the first 2 weeks was quicker (lifetimes between 1 and 5 days) due to the emissions occurring at low altitudes and co-location of the fresh plume with strong precipitation. Deviations between measured and modelled aerosol lifetimes are largest for the northernmost stations and at later time periods, suggesting that models do not transport enough of the aerosol towards the Arctic. The models underestimate passive tracer ( 133 Xe) concentrations in the Arctic as well but to a smaller extent than for the aerosol ( 137 Cs) tracer. As a result, this indicates that in addition to too fast an aerosol removal in the models, errors in simulated atmospheric transport towards the Arctic in most models also contribute to the underestimation of the Arctic aerosol concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

An optical parametric chirped-pulse amplifier for seeding high repetition rate free-electron lasers

High repetition rate free-electron lasers (FEL), producing highly intense extreme ultraviolet and x-ray pulses, require new high power tunable femtosecond lasers for FEL seeding and FEL pump-probe experiments. A tunable, 112 W (burst mode) optical parametric chirped-pulse amplifier (OPCPA) is demonstrated with center frequencies ranging from 720–900 nm, pulse energies up to 1.12 mJ and a pulse duration of 30 fs at a repetition rate of 100 kHz. Since the power scalability of this OPCPA is limited by the OPCPA-pump amplifier, we also demonstrate a 6.7–13.7 kW (burst mode) thin-disk OPCPA-pump amplifier, increasing the possible OPCPA output power to many hundreds of watts. Furthermore, third and fourth harmonic generation experiments are performed and the results are used to simulate a seeded FEL with high-gain harmonic generation.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Electron and recoil ion momentum imaging with a magneto-optically trapped target

A reaction microscope (ReMi) has been combined with a magneto-optical trap (MOT) for the kinematically complete investigation of atomic break-up processes. With the novel MOTReMi apparatus, the momentum vectors of the fragments of laser-cooled and state-prepared lithium atoms are measured in coincidence and over the full solid angle. The first successful implementation of a MOTReMi could be realized due to an optimized design of the present setup, a nonstandard operation of the MOT, and by employing a switching cycle with alternating measuring and trapping periods. The very low target temperature in the MOT (∼2 mK) allows for an excellent momentum resolution. Optical preparation of the target atoms in the excited Li 2{sup 2}P{sub 3/2} state was demonstrated providing an atomic polarization of close to 100%. While first experimental results were reported earlier, in this work, we focus on the technical description of the setup and its performance in commissioning experiments involving target ionization in 266 nm laser pulses and in collisions with projectile ions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modelled Black Carbon Radiative Forcing and Atmospheric Lifetime in AeroCom Phase II Constrained by Aircraft Observations

Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb solar radiation, and are generally held to exacerbate global warming through exerting a positive radiative forcing1. However, the total contribution of BC to the ongoing changes in global climate is presently under debate2-8. Both anthropogenic BC emissions and the resulting spatial and temporal distribution of BC concentration are highly uncertain2,9. In particular, long range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood, leading to large estimated uncertainty in BC concentration at high altitudes and far from emission sources10. These uncertainties limit our ability to quantify both the historical, present and future anthropogenic climate impact of BC. Here we compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns with 13 state of the art aerosol models, and show that recent assessments may have overestimated present day BC radiative forcing. Further, an atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in transport dominated remote regions. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in the multi-model median direct BC forcing from fossil fuel and biofuel burning over the industrial era.

black carbon↗
DOE OSTI2014

The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models. The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a –1 (range 34–144 Tg a −1 ) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a –1 (range 13–121 Tg a −1 ). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a –1 (range 16–121 Tg a −1 ), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a –1 ; range 13–20 Tg a –1 , with one model at 37 Tg a −1 ). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6–2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.0 and 3.8 Tg), with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8–9.6 days). In models that reported both OA and sulfate burdens, the median value of the OA/sulfate burden ratio is calculated to be 0.77; 13 models calculate a ratio lower than 1, and 9 models higher than 1. For 26 models that reported OA deposition fluxes, the median wet removal is 70 Tg a –1 (range 28–209 Tg a −1 ), which is on average 85% of the total OA deposition. Fine aerosol organic carbon (OC) and OA observations from continuous monitoring networks and individual field campaigns have been used for model evaluation. At urban locations, the model–observation comparison indicates missing knowledge on anthropogenic OA sources, both strength and seasonality. The combined model–measurements analysis suggests the existence of increased OA levels during summer due to biogenic SOA formation over large areas of the USA that can be of the same order of magnitude as the POA, even at urban locations, and contribute to the measured urban seasonal pattern. Global models are able to simulate the high secondary character of OA observed in the atmosphere as a result of SOA formation and POA aging, although the amount of OA present in the atmosphere remains largely underestimated, with a mean normalized bias (MNB) equal to –0.62 (–0.51) based on the comparison against OC (OA) urban data of all models at the surface, –0.15 (+0.51) when compared with remote measurements, and –0.30 for marine locations with OC data. The mean temporal correlations across all stations are low when compared with OC (OA) measurements: 0.47 (0.52) for urban stations, 0.39 (0.37) for remote stations, and 0.25 for marine stations with OC data. The combination of high (negative) MNB and higher correlation at urban stations when compared with the low MNB and lower correlation at remote sites suggests that knowledge about the processes that govern aerosol processing, transport and removal, on top of their sources, is important at the remote stations. There is no clear change in model skill with increasing model complexity with regard to OC or OA mass concentration. As a result, the complexity is needed in models in order to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural OA as needed for climate mitigation, and to calculate the impact of OA on climate accurately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties among AeroCom Models of a Range of Complexity

Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by twelve global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the results suggest that most global aerosol microphysics models simulate the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, but some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

AeroCom↗
NASA NTRS2014

Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties Among Aerocom Models of a Range of Complexity

Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multimodel- mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting that most of the individual global aerosol microphysics models are performing well, although the large model diversity indicates that some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation an growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

Cloud physics↗
NASA NTRS2014

An AeroCom Assessment of Black Carbon in Arctic Snow and Sea Ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng/g for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng/g for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng/g. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model-measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60-90degN) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07-0.25) W/sq m and 0.18 (0.06-0.28) W/sq m in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W/sq m for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2014

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. In this paper, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are -4.4 (-13.2 to +10.7) ng g -1 for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (-13.0 to +21.4) ng g -1 for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng g -1 . Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model–measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60–90° N) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07–0.25) W m -2 and 0.18 (0.06–0.28) W m -2 in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W m -2 for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

aeroCom↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Hydrological Impact of Geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Abstract: The hydrologic impact of enhancing Earth’s albedo due to solar radiation management (SRM) is investigated using simulations from 12 models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). An artificial experiment is investigated, where global mean temperature is preserved at pre-industrial conditions, while atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are quadrupled. The associated reduction of downwelling surface solar radiation in a high CO2 environment leads to a reduction of global evaporation of 10% and 4% and precipitation of 6.1% and 6.3% over land and ocean, respectively. An initial reduction of latent heat flux at the surface is largely driven by reduced evapotranspiration over land with instantly increasing CO2 concentrations in both experiments. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in the 4xCO2 experiment further generates an increase of global precipitation, with considerable regional changes, such as a significant precipitation reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global precipitation persists in the geoengineered experiment where temperatures are stabilized, with considerable regional rainfall deficits. Precipitation reductions that are consistent in sign across models are identified in the geoengineered experiment over monsoonal land regions of East Asia (6%), North America (7%), South America (6%) and South Africa (5%). In contrast to the 4xCO2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50%, it is reduced by up to 20% in the geoengineering scenario . The reduction in heavy precipitation is more pronounced over land than over the ocean, and accompanies a stronger reduction in evaporation over land. For northern mid-latitudes, maximum precipitation reduction over land ranges from 1 to 16% for individual models. For 45-65°N, the frequency of median to high intensity precipitation in summer is strongly reduced. These changes in precipitation in both total amount and frequency of extremes, point to a considerable weakening of the hydrological cycle in a geoengineered world.

Earth's albedo↗